To give all of us a chance to prepare, Here’s the Deal is publishing a bit earlier than usual with our newsletter today.
 
Let’s look at the dynamics here, with four things to watch.
 
1. The prep
 
The Trump campaign’s MAGA motto says something about his world view. But it ignores one of the former president’s most consistent characteristics: He flouts tradition and instead is driven by his instincts. Trump’s motor is a self-enforcing belief in his own abilities, putting that above any other piece of potential preparation. Those instincts reject typical, detailed preparation. 
 
Thus, per campaign sources, the former president is not conducting mock debates. Rather, he has been holding “policy time,” something a source told us is a bit of an inside joke that means getting ready for the debate. Specifically, the team sits with Trump, usually at a table, and goes through his policy positions and those of Vice President Kamala Harris.
 
Senior advisor Jason Miller, who is known for his communications and media work, is heading up the prep, we are told. The visuals have been simple, usually a small team at a table, with Trump in a chair. 
 
Former Hawaii congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is among those helping Trump. A senior campaign official told us Gabbard is there for insight and to make sure there is a woman in the room. 
 
“You can’t do a [debate] discussion when up against Harris with seven guys,” they said.
 
We were also told that Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., is a key adviser in Trump’s debate prep, asking the former president sharp questions. Gaetz has said Trump “does not do debate prep.” 

Meanwhile, Harris has been in a kind of debate prep academy. Per reporting by The New York Times and others, she has been practicing on a mock debate set with television lighting and an adviser dressed as and playing the role of Trump. 
 
The two opposing approaches will collide Tuesday night. In the past, Trump’s relative lack of preparation seemed to have harmed him in initial debates with key opponents. See his first 2016 debate against Hillary Clinton, his first 2020 debate against Joe Biden and the 2016 primary debate in which he faced Carly Fiorina, who stunned him with a strong retort.
 
For Democrats, the concern is the opposite: that Harris could over prepare and either sound scripted or struggle to relay a study session-like slate of information.
 
2. The first 30 minutes 
 
There is animated debate over debates themselves — whether and when they matter. But many agree that the start of these debates is the most critical window.
 
Two reasons: This is when the largest audience is watching and when that audience is forming its first (and likely second) impressions.
 
In the 2020 election season, The New York Times tracked viewer habits across debates and showed that the peak audience hit around 15 to 20 minutes into the debate and declined after 40 minutes.
 
For Tuesday’s debate, move the first-impression-factor dial up to “11.” This will not only be the first time Harris and Trump debate, it will be the first time the two of them meet. 
 
(Recall the conversation around Sarah Palin and Biden’s initial handshake, as our Gwen Ifill moderated, in 2008?)
 
In addition, it is Harris’ first time debating on the presidential stage during the general election. And it will be her first debate since the 2020 election. Trump has not had many more in that time, but the relatively recent one was a clear win for him. (And, ultimately, for Harris.) 
 
In the 2024 Biden-Trump debate in June, the first 30 minutes were critical. By that point, it was clear that Biden was not performing well. About 21 minutes into the debate, Trump quipped, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.” 
 
The impression stuck and ultimately helped topple Biden’s reelection attempt.  
 
3. Listen for policy
 
Both candidates have made a series of pledges and promises, but each also has left broad gaps in explaining specifically how they would achieve their goals.

One example: Trump has given few details on his mass deportation plan for undocumented immigrants, other than that he would delegate it to local law enforcement and the national guard. It is not clear how he would fund this, precisely which people would be first deported and what guidelines would determine how law enforcement identifies someone to be deported.

Another example: Harris has not yet outlined a comprehensive immigration policy. She has said she continues to back the bipartisan immigration bill that was frozen in Congress. But, while substantive, that bill deals largely with asylum and immediate needs at the border. A host of other issues remain in the immigration system, including visas for agricultural workers and other legal immigration categories.
 
4. Watch for anyone losing their cool
 
In this era of politics driven by emotion and personality, the most influential factor may be the intangible sense of who is the most composed.  
 
Sources in the Trump campaign believe their candidate’s calm in the Biden debate was critical to making Biden’s own problems stand out. The question is whether Trump can remain “calm Trump” through 90 minutes with Harris.
 
Harris may not have as much national debate experience as Trump, but she is a skilled prosecutor who spent years analyzing adversaries’ pressure points in rhetorical standoff situations. (An early senatorial standout moment came in her questioning of now Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.) 
 
Each side ardently hopes their candidate keeps their cool and looks in command, while baiting the other to overreact. 
 
With only one microphone turned on at a time — that of the person answering the question — don’t just listen to determine who is more poised. Watch body language. 
 
Sometimes on my second watch of a debate, I will do it largely with the sound off, and it always gives me at least a grain of new perspective.  
 
This is good news if you get tired of listening to the debate at any point. Turn down the volume. You may learn even more.

FOR THESE VOTERS, THE DEBATE IS A KEY DECISION POINT FOR THEIR VOTE

By Matt Loffman, @mattloff
Politics Producer
 
Americans will have their first opportunity to see a direct comparison between the two White House hopefuls when Harris and Trump meet Tuesday night for the ABC News Presidential Debate.
 
The first 2024 debate between Biden and Trump was perhaps the most consequential presidential debate in modern history, setting off several weeks of Democratic consternation that pressured Biden to end his campaign.
 
Expectations are similarly high for the new candidate matchup.
 
More than two-thirds of Americans say they will watch all or most of the debate. Another 23 percent say they will not watch but will pay close attention to news stories about it, while 6 percent say they will not pay any attention to the debate.
 
“The stakes are really high for this debate,” Democratic strategist Ameshia Cross said. “For [Harris], the stakes are higher just because she has a much higher ceiling to clear than Donald Trump does in terms of expectations.”

It’s not that most voters are likely to be swayed by the debate: Two-thirds of Americans say the event will have little to no effect on their vote for president. But the 14 percent of Americans who say the debate will have a great impact on which candidate they choose includes several groups important to both campaigns, including 32 percent of Black voters, 24 percent of Latino voters and 21 percent of Gen Zers/millennials.
 
Another 16 percent of Americans say the debate will affect their vote “a good amount.”

While views of the candidates are largely set among voters who have followed this race closely, debates held closer to Election Day usually hold outsized influence among those who may not be “as plugged into politics,” said Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
 
“The only thing that matters at this point is the 6-8 percent that have yet to make up their mind [and] that live in battleground states because they are going to make or break this election,” Republican strategist Kevin Madden said. “If Kamala Harris or Donald Trump have a very bad debate performance that pushes swing voters one way or the other, in a very close race, it could make a difference.
 

WHY ECONOMISTS DON’T LOVE THE ‘NO TAXES ON TIPS’ PLANS

By Hannah Grabenstein, @hgrabenstein
General Assignment Reporter
 
End taxes on tips. Both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have made this proposal on the campaign trail.
 
It’s an idea that sounds broadly appealing. But experts say it may not affect workers substantially, if at all, since many low-wage employees don’t make enough to pay taxes.
 
Confronted with the opaque American tax system, it’s catchy to say your tipped income won’t get taxed, said Margot Crandall-Hollick, a researcher at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.
But “it’s much harder to explain to people, ‘Hey, [with] that income, you’re not subject to tax anyway,’” she said.
 
And in some cases, eliminating taxation on tips could potentially change behaviors in ways that harm laborers.
 

#POLITICSTRIVIA
By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage
Senior Editor, Digital
 
Next Tuesday is Constitution Day. It commemorates the signing of the U.S. Constitution in 1787. A rare copy of the Constitution is being auctioned off later this month in North Carolina; it was found inside a metal filing cabinet on property once owned by a state governor.
 
The original version of our country’s living document was more than 4,500 words long. (Imagine being the scribe to write all that information with a quill pen.) Some discrepancies were bound to sneak in.
 
Our question: Which state appears with two different spellings in the Constitution?
 
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
 
Last week, we asked: Which Supreme Court justice was once depicted on the $10,000 bill?
 
The answer: Salmon P. Chase. A career politician, Chase served as chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court after President Abraham Lincoln nominated him to lead the high court. Before then, he was Lincoln’s wartime Treasury Secretary who spearheaded the creation of “greenbacks” to help pay for Civil War expenses.
 
Congratulations to our winners: Tim Smith and Rene Campos!
 
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.

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