Dear MoveOn member,
Who do you think should be elected president? The person who earns the most votes or the winner of a harebrained Electoral College system?
Remember in 2016, when Donald Trump lost the national popular vote by 7 million votes—and still won the presidency?
Well, John, it's on the verge of happening again.
Nate Silver, one of the nation's foremost elections experts, predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris has a 58.9% chance of winning the national popular vote but only a 41.6% chance of winning the Electoral College—and thus the presidency.
Infuriating.
But we have a decision to make: become angry and disillusioned or become agents of change.
I know what side I'm on. That's why I'm writing to you today, to ask you to donate to help my friends at MoveOn get out the vote in battleground states.
MoveOn has an incredible track record of turning out the very voters who will make the difference in this election: people in battleground states with progressive values who do not consistently vote. MoveOn's special sauce is engaging these voters on the issues they care about most, convincing them that their voices and votes matter, and getting them to the polls.
Will you join me and rush a $9 donation to MoveOn right now?
Someone else's vote shouldn't count more—or less—than yours.
But for 80% of Americans, that's exactly what's happening.1 Their vote for president isn't nearly as valuable as the vote of someone in a so-called "swing state." Why?
Most of us live in states that have become so predictably Democratic or Republican that we're taken for granted by candidates. Presidential elections now turn on the dwindling number of states that could go either way, which gives voters in those swing states huge leverage.
And as the nation becomes more divided and polarized, there's a shrinking number of swing voters who live in these swing states.
Decades ago, elections were won by winning over moderate voters who didn't have an allegiance to either party. Those voters hardly exist today.
This November, the election will be decided by a new type of swing voter. Not one who swings between the two parties but one who swings between voting and not voting at all.
As The New York Times puts it, the election will be decided by one thing: "It's about turnout."2
And that's exactly what MoveOn's plan does: turn out people in battleground states with progressive values who do not consistently vote.
This year, MoveOn is focusing on "surge voters" in these battleground states—people who became active for the first time, or became more active, after the 2016 election. And then, narrowing it down even more, they are prioritizing young voters and voters who skipped voting in the 2016 and/or 2022 elections.
Young people are aging into the electorate and are voting at a higher rate than previous generations did at their age, and they reject MAGA by 20-point margins.3 If they vote, they will deliver the margin we need to win.
One of the key tactics in MoveOn's plan is "vote tripling"—one of the simplest, smartest, and most proven-effective get-out-the-vote methods. Vote tripling is organizing voters to reach out to three of their friends or family members, talk with them about the issues at stake, help them make a plan, and ensure they turn out.
MoveOn deployed and honed vote tripling in the last two election cycles, and they have shown that it both increases the likelihood of the tripler voting and mobilizes their network to vote. In 2022, MoveOn used vote tripling to turn out 50,000 people in key states and districts who otherwise might not have voted—a HUGE number given that elections in our 50-50 divided country are typically decided by exceedingly narrow margins.
Thanks for all you do.
–Robert Reich
Sources:
1. "The First Step to Fixing the Electoral College," RobertReich.org, May 10, 2023
https://act.moveon.org/go/196836?t=4&akid=405132%2E40999114%2EZF-chM
2. "Turnout Data Reveals the Core of Democrats' Success in Special Elections," The New York Times, February 3, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/186323?t=6&akid=405132%2E40999114%2EZF-chM
3. "Gen Z might be the MAGA movement's undoing," The Washington Post, January 28, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/187570?t=8&akid=405132%2E40999114%2EZF-chM
Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025 is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll our nation.
Will you donate to power MoveOn's election plan, stop Trump, and ensure Project 2025 is never enacted?
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