Friend,

What’s really scary about this year is that a smart Trump campaign could win the presidency.

Yeah, you probably saw that NYT poll that has Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck. It confirms what we have always believed: This race likely comes down to a few thousand votes in a few key states – the true definition of a jump ball. And in that scenario, the good guys lose sometimes. This is where a strong, strategic campaign can make the difference.

A strong, strategic campaign like… 

Yeah, no, that’s not what Trump and Vance and Corey and Susie and Chris are doing.

Just think about the last few “brilliant” strategic moves from the brightest minds MAGA has to offer:

• Trump went on Hannity and in a free town hall for his campaign to a home audience, asserted he was still running against Joe Biden
• After yet another school shooting, JD Vance got on stage and declared school shootings to be “a fact of life”
• Which is way way way worse than, say, going into a donut shop and forgetting how to be a human, which he also did. My guess is that he never knew how...
• Oh, right, they hired Corey Lewandowski back, demoted Chris and Susie, and got into a fight at one of the most hallowed pieces of real estate in America, Section 60 of Arlington National Cemetery, trying to use our fallen heroes as campaign props
• I’m five points in and I haven’t even gotten to the Russian payola scam unfolding in front of us. No way Benny and Tim and the rest of them do anything for free. And guess who’s been paying them the whole time? Their paymaster’s name rhymes with “Pladimir Mutin”
• Holy ****, did you see his press conference on Friday? It was like a donation to The Lincoln Project. Incredible stuff.

I have almost talked myself out of my “Trump could win the presidency” argument. And if I reread the above enough times I’m there.

But this thing is still going to come down to a ludicrously small margin in a few key swing states. Trump stupidity or not. They have enough money (that’s not going to fund Convicted Felon Donald Trump’s legal bills) and enough outside help (Russia) that they can make it close.

The good news is while they’re being stupid, I think we might have found a haymaker or two to finish this thing off.

We’re doing an insane amount of voter sentiment tracking in our four existential states. Thousands of interviews. And it is clear that all that stupid is turning people off. Not because they don’t want to vote for stupid (seriously). But because it is repeatedly showing swing voters that no - they don’t care about you. They never have and never will.

So when we drop a powerful video telling workers they’re getting screwed by Trump to blue collar workers in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan… it’s because we know how powerful of an impact it will have.

They’re being dumb. We’re being smart. Trippi likes to say “they do the crazy, we do the work.” That’s our mantra every day until November 5th.

BTW, I’m licking my lips at the thought of Mr. Gobbledygook himself going up against a prosecutor head to head tomorrow night. Probably gonna have to update my points above…

-Rick