Dear MoveOn member,
Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead in national polls. But
pollsters have a big warning.
Presidential elections are not won at the national level; they're won in a
small number of battleground states that decide the Electoral College. And
one survey showed Harris trailing Donald Trump across five battleground
states.^1
A pro-Harris Super PAC said their polling "is much less rosy" than public
surveys.^2
In a terrifying development, top election forecaster Nate Silver's model
now gives Trump a 55.8% chance of winning the Electoral College, while
Harris has only a 44.0% chance of victory.^3
And then there's the fact that the Electoral College is biased in favor of
Republicans and that polls underestimated Trump in both 2020 and 2016.^4
While Harris's candidacy has electrified the base, Harris remains the
clear underdog in the race.
With only 60 days left until Election Day, we cannot waste a single second
to jump into action and overcome the odds against us. Please start a
donation of $5 a month to power MoveOn's work to get out the
vote, elect Harris, and defeat MAGA.
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Winning in November will be an uphill battle. While it may feel like
Harris is running away with the election, the Harris-Walz campaign has
merely turned this election into a toss-up.
Elections that are this close—in statistical dead heats—are decided by one
thing: turnout, turnout, turnout.
And that's where MoveOn comes in and why our work is so powerful.
Millions of voters across the country who share our progressive values—and
who would vote for Harris—stay home on Election Day. It's up to us to
convince them that their vote matters and to get them to the polls.
And getting these voters—ones we call "surge voters"—to turn out to the
polls is MoveOn's secret sauce.
Starting in 2020, MoveOn has pioneered a voter turnout method that's
proven to be as much as five times more effective than other methods!
It's called "vote tripling," and it's based on relational organizing—the
idea that people are much more likely to listen to their friends and
social networks than anonymous ads and outreach. Relational organizing has
been proven to be the absolute best way, by orders of magnitude, to not
only inform people but to turn them into likely voters who will show up on
Election Day.^5
In 2020, MoveOn's vote tripling program resulted in 50,000 unlikely voters
casting a ballot in battleground states and districts. And our team of
data scientists, veteran campaign strategists, and on-the-ground field
organizers have only continued to refine and improve it!
So here's the plan this year: Our data team has identified 1.5 million
surge voters in battleground states and districts—Democratic-leaning
voters who do not vote consistently.
We've been reaching out to these voters for months. MoveOn members and
volunteers have already done all this to reach surge voters in
battleground states:
* Made more than 342,170 calls, connecting directly with these key
voters to talk about Trump's fascist plans and Project 2025 and how a
Harris administration could help everyone thrive
* Sent 70,944 postcards to provide these voters with critical
information about what's at stake in this election
* Hosted more than 550 house parties to meet surge voters in their own
communities, hear their stories, help convince them that their voice
and vote matters, and ensure they feel empowered to make a difference
at the ballot box
And soon, we will kick off our vote tripling program and get these voters
to the polls!
But we're still raising the money to be able to fully execute our plan.
With time running out, will you chip in $5 a month to help
MoveOn turn out surge voters in battleground states? These are the voters
who will make the difference this November.
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Mohammad, Cheryl, Nita, Emma, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "Kamala Harris Trails Donald Trump in 5 New Battleground Polls,"
Newsweek, September 3, 2024
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2. "Democratic pollsters have a warning about Kamala Harris' lead,"
Politico, August 22, 2024
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3. "There's no "normal" in this election," Silver Bulletin, September 3,
2024
[link removed]
4. "Democratic pollsters have a warning about Kamala Harris' lead,"
Politico, August 22, 2024
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5. "How Much Do Campaign Ads Matter?" Kellogg Insight, November 1, 2021
[link removed]
Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025
is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks
communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and
undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll
our nation.
Will you start a monthly donation to power and sustain MoveOn's election
plan, stop Trump, and ensure Project 2025 is never enacted?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in $5 a month.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
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