John,

Fasten your seat belts! This coming Tuesday, September 10, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will go toe-to-toe in a live debate hosted by ABC.

Recent Presidential debates haven't always mattered as much as this one will since by the time the debates take place both candidates have had plenty of opportunity to introduce themselves to the country. But as we recently saw when Donald Trump faced off against President Biden, debates can – and DO – shake the Earth. That single debate triggered one of the wildest periods of political upheaval I've seen in my lifetime.

Anyone who knows what they're talking about will tell you that this race between Trump and Harris is going to be very, very close. Predictions say that the vast majority of Americans have already made up their minds and the outcome will likely be decided by a small fraction of the voting public in a handful of states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

But that makes the stakes particularly high for this upcoming debate, because most voters haven't yet had a chance to hear Vice President Harris' vision for America's future. Undecided voters may finally fall off the fence, while even those firmly in one candidate’s camp could find reasons to switch to the other.

It’s important to understand that winning a presidential debate also means winning the news-media cycle that follows the event. Was the candidate prepared? Did the candidate have a vision? Did the candidate effectively contrast themself with their opponent? These are some of the questions that matter, and to "win" the debate each candidate will have to employ a different strategy.

For Vice President Harris, what's critical is that she demonstrates to the American people that she's got the right stuff to lead the nation. Essential to that is projecting confidence and an understanding of the way government works to serve people, and what the limitations of that power are. She should demonstrate that she isn't tied to Biden's entire legacy and that she, in fact, has her own ideas. And she needs to continue to demonstrate that while the economy may be doing well at the moment, too many American families are struggling with higher prices and need help.

For President Trump, what's critical is that he is able to draw a contrast between the Biden/Harris economic record and the record he built during his own time in office. He will also need to challenge Harris' preparedness to do the job as well as demonstrate that he has a plan to accomplish all the things he’s been promising on the campaign trail. And I’m waiting to see if he can restrain some of his worst impulses and stay on message.

Some people may say this election hinges on immigration or foreign affairs or environmental policy. But it's my belief that the final result will actually come down to this simple question: how will your family's finances fare under the next President? Whichever candidate can best address that issue will be elected.

Stay tuned for more thoughts and reactions as we progress into the final stretch of this election. It's hard to believe, but in some states, early in-person or absentee voting for the November 5 election begins this month. Buckle up for a wild ride to the finish!