We wrote you yesterday that the nation's top election forecast, by Nate Silver, now gives Donald Trump a 55.8% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Kamala Harris has only a 44.0% chance of victory.
Dear MoveOn member,
We wrote you yesterday that the nation's top election forecast, by Nate Silver, now gives Donald Trump a 55.8% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Kamala Harris has only a 44.0% chance of victory.1
While Vice President Harris has a slight lead in the national polls, the polls are worse in the battleground states—where the race will be decided, thanks to the Electoral College and its Republican bias.2
While Harris's candidacy has electrified the Democratic base, Harris remains the clear underdog in the race.
We will tell you more about what the polling and data say about why Harris is trailing in the battleground states in just a second. But first, we have to ask: With only 60 days left until Election Day and with Harris behind, will you start an emergency monthly donation of $5 to power MoveOn's campaign to get out the vote? Your ongoing support between now and Election Day couldn't be more critical.
Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
The chief political analyst at The New York Times, Nate Cohn, wrote yesterday in his newsletter about a particular weakness for Democrats: less-engaged voters. Specifically, Vice President Harris trails Trump by six points among voters who didn't vote in the 2022 midterms.3
Less-engaged voters with progressive values are exactly the voters MoveOn is focused on persuading and turning out to vote.
The hard reality is that millions of voters across the country who share our progressive values—and who would vote for Harris—will stay home on Election Day, unless we do something about it. It's up to us to convince them that their voice and vote matter and to get them to the polls.
And getting these voters—ones we call "surge voters"—to turn out to the polls is MoveOn's secret sauce.
Starting in 2020, MoveOn has pioneered a voter turnout method that's proven to be as much as five times more effective than other methods!
It's called "vote tripling," and it's based on relational organizing—the idea that people are much more likely to listen to their friends and social networks than anonymous ads and outreach. Relational organizing has been proven to be the absolute best way, by orders of magnitude, to not only inform people but to turn them into likely voters who will show up on Election Day.4
In 2020, MoveOn's vote tripling program resulted in 50,000 less-engaged voters casting a ballot in battleground states and districts. And our team of data scientists, veteran campaign strategists, and on-the-ground field organizers have only continued to refine and improve it!
So here's the plan this year: Our data team has identified 1.5 million surge voters in battleground states and districts—Democratic-leaning voters who do not vote consistently.
We've been reaching out to these voters for months. MoveOn members and volunteers have already done all this to reach surge voters in battleground states:
- Made more than 342,710 calls, connecting directly with these key voters to talk about Trump's fascist plans and Project 2025 and how a Harris administration could help everyone thrive
- Sent 70,944 postcards to provide these voters information about key issues they care most about and what's at stake in this election
- Hosted more than 550 house parties to meet surge voters in their own communities, hear their stories, help convince them that their voice and vote matter, and ensure they feel empowered to make a difference at the ballot box
And soon, we will kick off our vote tripling program and get these voters to the polls!
But we're still raising the money to be able to fully execute our plan. With time running out, will you start a $5 monthly donation to help MoveOn turn out surge voters in battleground states? These are the voters who will make the difference this November.
Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Mohammad, Nakia, Soraya, Corinne, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "There's no 'normal' in this election," Silver Bulletin, September 3, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196592?t=6&akid=404599%2E40999114%2E49kWqz
2. "As Groups Have Shifted, Has It Become a 'Normal' Election?" The New York Times, September 4, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196626?t=8&akid=404599%2E40999114%2E49kWqz
3. Ibid.
4. "Largest-Ever Study on Relational Organizing Shows 8.3% Increase in Turnout," Impactive, October 9, 2020
https://act.moveon.org/go/165496?t=10&akid=404599%2E40999114%2E49kWqz
Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025 is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll our nation.
Will you start a monthly donation to power and sustain MoveOn's election plan, stop Trump, and ensure Project 2025 is never enacted?
Yes, I'll chip in $5 a month.
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
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