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The Biden administration, along with outside experts, assesses that Iran could build a nuclear weapon very quickly — if it chose to do so. Whether and under what conditions Iran would cross the line are unknown. Equally unclear is how Tehran would integrate a nuclear weapons capability into its overall security strategy. What would Iran’s leaders believe nuclear weapons would do for them? And how would they wield them? These uncertainties are compounded by unknowns regarding the reactions of regional states, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, and powerful global players, including the United States. At a moment when Iran and Israel have attacked each other’s territory with ballistic missiles, these questions are more than just thought exercises. And the implications go beyond the Middle East as states under the shadow of perceived aggressors contemplate building nuclear weapons themselves. Their calculations will be shaped by an Iranian decision to build a bomb — or not to build one — and the international response to it.
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