Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we cover the state of play in the presidential race, the plummeting marriage rate in the United States, and the factors driving some American allies to consider nuclear armament.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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Topline: With Election Day just nine weeks away, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt analyzes the presidential race and each candidate’s path to victory. Averaging five national polls, Stirewalt finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump, at 47.8% to 44.6%.

State of Play: With a 3.2% lead and fewer undecided and protest votes than typical at this stage, Harris holds a solid advantage. Stirewalt predicts that if Trump makes late gains with undecided voters, as he did in 2020, he will likely win the Electoral College.

Path to Victory: Stirewalt points out that Harris cannot win without Pennsylvania. But Trump could lose Pennsylvania and still secure a narrow victory by carrying Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.

Topline: AEI’s Brad Wilcox finds the US marriage rate has dropped from 85.9% in 1970 to 30.5% in 2021. He explains that paradoxically, while marriage has lost cultural support, it's increasingly important for the well-being of individuals and future of our civilization.

• Since 1970, the median age for marriage has increased by about seven years, reaching 30.5 for men and 28.6 for women in 2022.
• Furthermore, the share of married Americans has fallen from 72% in 1960 to about 50% in 2024.

Upside: Wilcox points outs that the share of children being raised in intact families with married parents has recently increased, and more people who get married today are staying married.

Topline: AEI’s Hal Brands identifies three factors driving American allies in Eastern Europe and East Asia to consider nuclear armament: China’s military buildup, Russia’s aggression, and America’s increasing isolationism.

• Since the first nuclear weapon was developed, the nonproliferation regime has restricted the spread of nuclear weapons to fewer than 10 countries.
  

What's Next? For the time being, Brands expects the US will remain in its alliances. But, a win for Donald Trump in November will likely foster doubts about America’s geopolitical commitments.