In a terrifying development, top election forecaster Nate Silver's model now gives Trump a 55.8% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris has only a 44.0% chance of victory.
Dear MoveOn member,
Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead in national polls. But pollsters have a big warning.
Presidential elections are not won at the national level; they're won in a small number of battleground states that decide the Electoral College. And one survey showed Harris trailing Donald Trump across five battleground states.1
A pro-Harris Super PAC said their polling "is much less rosy" than public surveys.2
In a terrifying development, top election forecaster Nate Silver's model now gives Trump a 55.8% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris has only a 44.0% chance of victory.3
And then there's the fact that the Electoral College is biased in favor of Republicans and that polls underestimated Trump in both 2020 and 2016.4
While Harris's candidacy has electrified the base, Harris remains the clear underdog in the race.
With only 61 days left until Election Day, we cannot waste a single second to jump into action and overcome the odds against us. Please start a donation of $5 a month to power MoveOn's work to get out the vote, elect Harris, and defeat MAGA.
Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Winning in November will be an uphill battle. While it may feel like Harris is running away with the election, the Harris-Walz campaign has merely turned this election into a toss-up.
Elections that are this close—in statistical dead heats—are decided by one thing: turnout, turnout, turnout.
And that's where MoveOn comes in and why our work is so powerful.
Millions of voters across the country who share our progressive values—and who would vote for Harris—stay home on Election Day. It's up to us to convince them that their vote matters and to get them to the polls.
And getting these voters—ones we call "surge voters"—to turn out to the polls is MoveOn's secret sauce.
Starting in 2020, MoveOn has pioneered a voter turnout method that's proven to be as much as five times more effective than other methods!
It's called "vote tripling," and it's based on relational organizing—the idea that people are much more likely to listen to their friends and social networks than anonymous ads and outreach. Relational organizing has been proven to be the absolute best way, by orders of magnitude, to not only inform people but to turn them into likely voters who will show up on Election Day.5
In 2020, MoveOn's vote tripling program resulted in 50,000 unlikely voters casting a ballot in battleground states and districts. And our team of data scientists, veteran campaign strategists, and on-the-ground field organizers have only continued to refine and improve it!
So here's the plan this year: Our data team has identified 1.5 million surge voters in battleground states and districts—Democratic-leaning voters who do not vote consistently.
We've been reaching out to these voters for months. MoveOn members and volunteers have already done all this to reach surge voters in battleground states:
- Made more than 320,000 calls, connecting directly with these key voters to talk about Trump's fascist plans and Project 2025 and how a Harris administration could help everyone thrive
- Sent 69,000 postcards to provide these voters with critical information about what's at stake in this election
- Hosted more than 500 house parties to meet surge voters in their own communities, hear their stories, help convince them that their voice and vote matters, and ensure they feel empowered to make a difference at the ballot box
And soon, we will kick off our vote tripling program and get these voters to the polls!
But we're still raising the money to be able to fully execute our plan. With time running out, will you chip in $5 a month to help MoveOn turn out surge voters in battleground states? These are the voters who will make the difference this November.
Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Mohammad, Cheryl, Nita, Emma, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "Kamala Harris Trails Donald Trump in 5 New Battleground Polls," Newsweek, September 3, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196597?t=6&akid=404428%2E40999114%2Ewc5nPo
2. "Democratic pollsters have a warning about Kamala Harris' lead," Politico, August 22, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196598?t=8&akid=404428%2E40999114%2Ewc5nPo
3. "There's no "normal" in this election," Silver Bulletin, September 3, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196592?t=10&akid=404428%2E40999114%2Ewc5nPo
4. "Democratic pollsters have a warning about Kamala Harris' lead," Politico, August 22, 2024
https://act.moveon.org/go/196598?t=12&akid=404428%2E40999114%2Ewc5nPo
5. "How Much Do Campaign Ads Matter?" Kellogg Insight, November 1, 2021
https://act.moveon.org/go/187493?t=14&akid=404428%2E40999114%2Ewc5nPo
Want to support MoveOn? The MAGA right is declaring war, and Project 2025 is their battle plan. Project 2025 threatens our rights, attacks communities of color, hurts middle- and working-class families, and undermines our democracy. But we will not back down or let Trump steamroll our nation.
Will you start a monthly donation to power and sustain MoveOn's election plan, stop Trump, and ensure Project 2025 is never enacted?
Yes, I'll chip in $5 a month.
No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
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