Dear John,

Two months out from their “loveless landslide,” and Labour’s popularity is slipping. A recent BMG Research voting intention poll puts Labour at 30% – their lowest share in well over a decade. The Conservatives are gone – but political disillusionment and distrust doesn’t seem to be going away.

Another poll by YouGov found that Keir Starmer is also at his lowest popularity rating yet, with 56% of the country holding unfavourable views of the Prime Minister. Somewhat tragically, that still makes him one of the most popular (or least unpopular) politicians in the country, crawling over an incredibly low bar.

The graph below shows another concerning trend for the Labour party. At this last election, a record number of seats were won with less than 35% of the vote share, indicating that they could easily swing in a different direction in future – and that over 65% of those constituencies didn’t want them in office.

It’s understandable that after fourteen years of Conservative corruption and mismanagement, people aren’t inclined to trust politicians. It’s also true that Starmer is only two months in, and that he’s going to need time to address people’s myriad concerns. But if Keir Starmer wants to “fix the foundations” of Britain, this is a critical problem that he’s going to have to address – the sooner, the better.

Starmer, like his predecessors, struggles with Britain’s young people. 37% of 18-24s now say that that their vote doesn’t impact the outcome of the election. As my colleague Rose highlighted today on our Substack, it’s not for a lack of political engagement. They sign petitions, attend rallies, and get their friends activated on social media.

But fundamentally, they don’t see electoral politics as a vehicle for change in this country. Frustratingly, they’re not completely wrong to think that way. First-Past-The-Post politics funnels our choices into a tight binary, always guided by the swing-seats. Many people’s votes, as the graph above shows, quite literally don’t count.

These numbers present a challenge to Sir Keir, but also, if he’s willing to open his mind a bit, a golden opportunity. There is a profound appetite for systemic change in this country. Labour can be the party that ushers in a democratic renewal in Britain, staving off an anti-establishment backlash from the far-right and finally inviting people in to the exclusive club that modern politics has become.

At the end of the day, that legacy-defining choice is his. But he’s running out of time to make it.

All the best,

Matt

Matt Gallagher

Communications Officer
Open Britain