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Rhode Island Only Looks Like It Has a Bad Covid-19 Outbreak Because It Has a Bad Covid-19 Outbreak Jim Naureckas ([link removed])


NYT: Rhode Island Pushes Aggressive Testing, a Move That Could Ease Reopening

The New York Times' "experts" (4/28/20 ([link removed]) ) attribute Rhode Island's high coronavirus numbers to "aggressive testing."

A story by Michael Powell ([link removed]) in the New York Times (4/28/20 ([link removed]) ) begins:

Rhode Island gives the appearance of a state where the coronavirus is a fire raging, the average number of daily infections more than quadrupling since the start of this month.

The reality is more complicated and encouraging, as state health workers have tested more residents per capita in Rhode Island than in any other state, leading them to discover many infections that might have gone overlooked elsewhere.

Actually, the reality is simpler and more discouraging: Rhode Island gives the impression that it's got a bad outbreak of Covid-19 because it's got a bad outbreak of Covid-19. In fact, per capita, it's got the 7th-highest death toll in the nation:
91-DIVOC: Rhode Island per capita deaths from COVID-19

Chart: 91-DIVOC

The Times suggests that "the average number of daily infections more than quadrupling since the start of this month" is at least in part an artifact of testing, but it's also true that Rhode Island's daily average deaths have almost quadrupled—from 2.5 per day on April 3 to 9.7 per day on April 28.
NYT Chart: Rhode Island Daily Coronavirus Tests

Rhode Island's coronavirus infection rate kept rising even after its testing leveled off (chart: New York Times, 4/28/20 ([link removed]) ).

Rhode Island ramped up its testing about two weeks ago, so that can't be the explanation for why its active cases have been growing 5% a day for the past week. (By comparison, active cases for the nation as a whole have been growing 3% a day.)

More testing is good, but media shouldn't let states use it as an excuse for out-of-control viral transmission—or as cover for a premature reopening of the economy.
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