From RAND Policy Currents <[email protected]>
Subject Kursk May Be Ukraine’s Path to Victory
Date August 27, 2024 7:30 PM
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** Aug. 27, 2024
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Kursk May Be Ukraine’s Path to Victory

During more than two years of conflict in Ukraine, the West's restrictions on Ukrainian incursions into Russia have forced Ukraine to fortify its entire line. Russia, meanwhile, has enjoyed the luxury of safety along its border. But Western restrictions were recently loosened, paving the way for Ukraine's bold invasion of the Kursk region in western Russia.

The Kursk operation "changes the equation," says RAND's Michael Bohnert. Russia must now reinforce its entire border, which requires tens of thousands of troops, hundreds of vehicles, and fortification resources. The Kremlin will have to devote months' worth of recruitment and resupply to this effort.

The surprise offensive provides Ukraine with many potential benefits. It could buy much-needed time for Western aid to arrive and allow for the replenishment of Ukrainian forces. And despite Russian bombardments in eastern Ukraine this week, Kyiv's incursion could slow Russian ground and air operations over the next few months.

In short, the Kursk offensive creates a path toward victory, Bohnert says, and an opportunity that Ukraine's supporters should not squander. "Ending the conflict quickly is the goal," he says, "but it must be from a position of Ukrainian strength."

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