Philippines Is 'Next Ukraine': China Escalating in South China Sea

by Gordon G. Chang • August 26, 2024 at 5:00 am

With his assault on the Philippines, Xi could be finally making his own move in East Asia.
Beijing claims all the features and waters inside its infamous "cow's tongue," now defined by ten dashes on official maps, which encloses about 85% of the South China Sea. Those waters, the Chinese proclaim, are "blue national soil."
It appears... that China's leader is not planning to start hostilities with an invasion of the main island of Taiwan.
Xi, in the domestic political landscape he has shaped, knows he is vulnerable, especially because his policies are being blamed for making a deteriorating situation worse. Xi needs a quick political victory, but unfortunately for him, a takeover of Taiwan is out of reach.
That means, I think, he has decided to move on a weak neighbor. The Republic of the Philippines fits the bill.
The risk is that an attack on the Philippines will lead to general conflict in the region. As an initial matter, Manila and the U.S. are parties to a 1951 treaty. The Biden State Department has issued written warnings — the last one on August 19 — that the U.S. was willing to use force against China to discharge its obligations...
In addition, NATO members over the last several years have become involved in the South China Sea.

Despite lack of justification, China's President Xi Jinping has committed one provocation after another in Philippine water. For example, on August 19, Chinese Coast Guard vessels, without justification, rammed two Philippine boats near Sabina Shoal as they tried to resupply forces stationed at Flat and Nanshan Islands. Pictured: A China Coast Guard ship (top) sails dangerously close to Filipino fishermen aboard two wooden boats (center), as a Philippine Fisheries and Aquatic Resources inflatable boat observes, near the Scarborough Shoal, in the South China Sea, on February 16, 2024. (Photo by Ted Aljibe/ AFP/Getty Images)

On August 23, China's foreign ministry said that the country had taken "countermeasures" against two Philippine military aircraft near Subi Reef in the South China Sea.

Four days earlier, Chinese Coast Guard vessels, without justification, rammed two Philippine boats near Sabina Shoal as they tried to resupply forces stationed at Flat and Nanshan Islands.

The move follows belligerent acts on June 17 at nearby Second Thomas Shoal, when Chinese vessels rammed Philippine craft, seized two of them, and wounded eight sailors, one seriously. On March 5, China wounded four Filipino sailors at Second Thomas, where Manila in 1999 grounded the Sierra Madre, a World War II-era vessel, to bolster its territorial claims.

All of these incidents took place close to main Philippine islands and therefore far from China. Sabina, for instance, is 124 nautical miles from Palawan of the Philippines and more than eight times that distance to China's Hainan.

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The Israeli Imperative to Destroy Myths, Not Just Missiles

by Ruthie Blum • August 26, 2024 at 4:00 am

[I]t's crucial not to lose sight of the bigger picture: the acute multi-front assault on the Jewish state since Oct. 7 and the chronic one that's been going on from various directions for decades.
Today's PA leader, Mahmoud Abbas, has the same agenda as his predecessor [to annihilate the Jewish state in stages], but dresses differently for foreign consumption. Having his pocket lined with millions of dollars, euros and shekels doesn't hurt in this effort, since the mega-wealth enables him to purchase the best that Armani has to offer. It has also provided him with the cash to fund his "pay for slay" policy.
Though Fatah, the faction headed by Abbas, is a longtime foe of Hamas, it shares the rival group's aim of eliminating Israel. To this end, the schools, mosques and media it controls glorify "martyrdom for Allah."
Nevertheless, the U.N. continues to treat the PA as a "moderate" entity whose goal is independent statehood, free from the ostensible shackles of Israeli "occupation..." The idea behind this fallacy is that a reformed Palestinian group can replace Hamas in Gaza when the war is over. Good luck finding anyone in the PA who fits the bill...
This hasn't prevented the administration in Washington from clinging to the notion of a viable "two-state solution" in the la-la-land of U.S. foreign policy. This outlook poses an even greater threat in the long term than the Hezbollah drones and rockets that the IDF destroyed early Sunday.
Most sane analysts understand that Hamas and Hezbollah are Iran-backed terrorist organizations whose military capabilities have to be countered. But illusions about the PA remain dangerously intact. It's imperative for Israel to destroy the myth along with enemy missiles.

Today's Palestinian Authority (PA) leader, Mahmoud Abbas, has the same agenda as his predecessor Yasser Arafat [to annihilate the Jewish state in stages], but dresses differently for foreign consumption. Pictured: Arafat and Abbas meet in Ramallah on July 20, 2003. (Photo by Jamal Aruri/AFP via Getty Images)

Israel's preemptive strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon during the wee hours of Sunday morning temporarily shifted focus away from Hamas in Gaza and from the next round of bogus "ceasefire" negotiations in Cairo for the release of hostages.

It's natural for the Israel Defense Forces to shine a spotlight on this noteworthy event, particularly since it involved the thwarting of a mass attack on a sensitive military-intelligence base in the center of the country by one of Iran's many proxies in the region.

The same applies to the media coverage of what initially seemed to be the start of a full-fledged war in the north, but which ended up being a finite operation in the meantime. Still, it's crucial not to lose sight of the bigger picture: the acute multi-front assault on the Jewish state since Oct. 7 and the chronic one that's been going on from various directions for decades.

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