Dear John,

The week the UK economy started to show signs of recovery. The week everyone left Twitter. The week a slurring Donald Trump endorsed a list of authoritarian dictators and said Kamala Harris's presidential nomination was a 'coup'. The week that kicked off with the hottest day in the UK so far this year. 

Considering we're in Parliamentary recess, and it's the middle of August, it's been quite a week. Let's get into it.

Econ-oh my, is that a…growth?

The UK's economy has recorded the strongest growth of any G7 economy in the first half of this year. Cue numerous Conservative MPs, including ex-Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, taking credit  while bashing new Chancellor Rachel Reeves for her rhetoric over the poor state of the country's finances and the 'tough decisions' expected in Labour's first Budget in October.

And yes, after falling into recession at the end of last year, the 1.3% GDP growth seen over the last six months is welcome. But it's also where the good news ends. Our country's medium-term record is far less impressive. According to the Resolution Foundation, it's "driven by a growing population rather than rising productivity"  - and without a return to productivity growth, the UK will continue to fall behind, especially on living standards. Meanwhile inflation ticked back up to 2.2%; and while unemployment dropped slightly to 4.2% between April and June, wage growth has continued to slow and is now at its weakest level for two years.

Small improvements in GDP don't change the fact that the UK economy has stalled due to 14 years of underinvestment by successive Conservative-led governments. Driven by an addiction to austerity, they gutted our public services; failed to invest in the country's recovery from Covid; and refused to shield the most vulnerable from the worst effects of the cost of living crisis. For example, this week it was revealed that while overall food inflation hit 15.8% between 2021 and 2023, it was far higher (at 36.2%) for the cheapest 10% of all food ranges, such as inexpensive pasta and butter, hitting poorer households the hardest. It is no coincidence that 3.1 million emergency food parcels were handed out by the Trussell Trust last year, nearly double the number compared to five years ago.

On Wednesday, Jeremy Hunt posted on X/Twitter that the GDP figures are a sign of "how important it is that the new Labour government follows the path of the previous Conservative government" on the economy. Looking at the bigger economic picture, that "path" is less of a yellow brick road to growth, and more a fast track to electoral oblivion. 

Donald Stumped

Speaking of electoral oblivion (please, please, please!🤞), the latest news from across the Atlantic is that Donald Trump's advisers are in turmoil after the campaign's worst month of 2024. Trump's inability to land a blow on Kamala Harris or her new running mate Tim Walz has left him on the defensive with only a narrow window until the election, and unable to break through the Democrats' strong media coverage - a problem set to deepen for Trump as the Democratic National Convention kicks off on Monday. 

His bizarre conversation with Elon Musk on Tuesday on X/Twitter, marred by technical glitches, has done little to help his cause. As Marina Hyde aptly put it, it sounded like even his dentures were trying to escape. At one point, Trump slurred that he'd like to close the Department of Education, and referred to Biden dropping out of the presidential race as a "coup." Right. You won't be surprised to learn that, according to the Economist's presidential forecast, Kamala Harris now has a 52% chance of winning (after less than a month of campaigning!). Before Joe Biden dropped out of the race, the same forecast gave him a 24% chance of winning.

Start of an eXodus?

Shockingly, Elon Musk chortling his way through Trump reminiscing over his favourite meetings with dictators in a glitchy, one-hour-delayed audio-only 'conversation' isn't the strangest thing the tech billionaire did this week. 

Musk has now positioned himself firmly on the side of the far-right thugs and rioters that have caused havoc in British cities following the Southport tragedy. Doubling down after claiming "Civil war is inevitable" in the UK, his most egregious posts include commenting on the arrest and charging of one rioter with "this is messed up", and "it’s 2030 in the UK & you’re being executed for posting a meme". Consequently, users are leaving X/Twitter in droves. And if that includes you, Best for Britain is now posting on BlueSky and Threads!

International Students: Unis Need U

Students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland got their A-level and BTEC grades back this week, and it was good news for many, with an increase in the top grades exceeding not only last year's results, but those recorded before the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic. However, significant disparities remain between northern and southern England; in NI and Wales, where results fell compared to last year; and between state and private schools. It's important to remember that the Conservatives invested only a third of what the catch-up tsar recommended for schools after Covid - the commissioner resigned over the lack of credible funding in response. Years after promising to "level up" the country, the Tories only succeeded in deepening the attainment gap. 

Nevertheless, those heading to university may find it easier to get a place at their first choice this year, after applications by international students enrolling for courses in the UK fell by around 15%. But this isn't good news. After Brexit, the number of EU students applying to UK universities fell by more than half and, in a dogmatic drive to reduce immigration, the last government introduced new restrictions on student visas. As 20% of university funding stems from overseas students, this budgetary hit could prove fatal - and chancellors are warning some institutions could be forced to close.

Fewer international students will not only mean less money for UK universities, but less money for everyone. About £42 billion less. This is how much they contribute to the UK economy - almost twice as much as the fiscal 'black hole' left by the Conservatives in the country's finances. International students are good for our universities, our economy, our public services and our society. We would do well to start welcoming them back.

Brexit corner

These polling results should give Labour the confidence to use its relationship reset with the EU to tear down the barriers to growth that the last government's shambolic Brexit deal erected. The public already appears to back such a move. While the economic benefits of much-needed investment in skills and infrastructure will take years to materialise, negotiating a better Brexit deal and embarking on a closer relationship with Europe could pay immediate dividends.

Our CEO Naomi Smith digs into the data in the latest episode of the Quiet Riot podcast.

🫣 Cringe Column 😬

We're retiring to Chequers for recess. The authors of Weekend Wire are taking a two-week break. We'll be back in your inboxes in the first week of September.

Enjoy the rest of your summer!

Best wishes,
Julia Meadon
Director of Digital
Best for Britain