Is MAGA Melting Down?
It’s only August 16th, and this election cycle has already been full of surprises. Just a month ago, Donald Trump was ascendant in the polls and emboldened by an attempted assassination. MAGA seemed to be a cold and calculating political machine, delivering blow after blow to a beleaguered Joe Biden and jumping up in key swing state polls.
But the Democrats’ abrupt decision to shift their ticket seems to have caught the Republicans almost entirely off guard. They had put all their eggs in the "anti-Biden” basket, leaving them devoid of talking points and opposition research. Worse still, the Democrats’ rising momentum seems to be opening up internal feuds within MAGA, revealing the cracks in their facade.
Republican party campaigners have expressed concerns that Trump is self-sabotaging, accusing him of entering a “self-destructive spiral” since Biden dropped out.  His usual name-calling strategies (questioning Kamala Harris’ racial background, and calling her stupid) are not working in the eyes of his own strategists, and his repeated feuds with Republican swing-state governors like Georgia’s Brian Kemp are making the party look chaotic and amateurish.
Let’s also not forget that Trump was found guilty in May of falsifying business records in an attempt to conceal a hush-money payment to a porn star. His new gambit has been to try and delay sentencing until after the election, arguing that it would amount to “election interference.”
Then there’s the small matter of JD Vance. While conventional wisdom holds that Vice-Presidential picks don’t matter all that much, Trump has had a very light campaign event schedule, often leaving his VP pick to do his talking for him. Vance, a charisma blackhole with views that are polarising even to ardent right-wingers, is only further alienating the campaign from regular people.
A series of incredibly cringey “X” features with Elon Musk, including a weird sycophantic (and technologically disastrous) digital interview and a dumb AI deep-fake video of the two billionaires dancing to “Stayin Alive”, showcase a campaign that has all but lost its populist allure.
As I said at the beginning though, it’s only August 16th. Anything could happen in the next few months. But we do seem to be witnessing a turning point in Trump’s strategy, and the same old 2016 campaign tricks just don’t seem like they’re going to work again.
In other US election news…
The Democratic National Convention kicks off next week, set to be a huge make-or-break moment for the Harris/Walz ticket and their momentum.
Trump’s campaign have accused Harris of “stealing” a proposal for ending taxes on tips – many service industry workers in America are paid around $2/hour and rely mostly on tips.
Debate season is nearly upon us, with Harris-Trump facing off on September 10th and Walz-Vance going head to head on October 1st.
