Greetings John,

Welcome to the August issue of the States & Stats Newsletter, highlighting the work of our award-winning political research team. 

Our research team works on projects like state legislative data and district targeting, understanding what motivates voters and volunteers down-ballot, and collecting, analyzing, and reporting on state-level data and trends. This research powers all of Sister District’s political strategy and programs.

In this month’s States & Stats:

• Data Deep Dive – In a new report we investigate how votes lost to down-ballot roll-off affected partisan control of state legislative chambers in 2020

• Special Announcements – Join Sister District & Daily Kos for a virtual event about the importance of voting down-ballot on Sep 23 and for a virtual Fireside Chat with author David Daley on Oct 15

I hope this newsletter is interesting and informative. And I welcome your feedback – let me know if there are particular topics or issues you’d like us to cover.

📊 Deep Dive

At Sister District, we’ve conducted extensive research to understand the phenomenon of roll-off—when a person votes in the race at the top of the ballot, but then skips voting for state legislative races. Other research we’ve done shows that partisan control of state legislatures is often decided by very narrow margins. In our latest report, we bring these findings together, focusing on closely contested legislative chambers in 2020 to illustrate why roll-off matters.

We looked at 13 competitive, Republican-controlled state legislative chambers in 2020 and determined the number of additional seats Democrats would have needed in order to gain the majority in each of these chambers. We then calculated the total number of votes it would have taken to win those majority-making seats, using the districts where Democratic candidates lost by the narrowest margins. Finally, we calculated the amount of roll-off, or how many more votes Joe Biden received than the Democratic state legislative candidates, in those same districts.

The results show concretely why roll-off is important: 

• To flip the Arizona state senate in 2020, Democrats would have needed to win just 2 more seats. In the 2 races that Democratic state senate candidates came closest to winning, the candidates lost by a combined total of 11,201 votes. In these same districts, 12,268 more votes were cast for Joe Biden than for the Democratic state senate candidates. 

  • Democrats could have flipped the AZ Senate by just reducing roll-off.
    
    

• In the Minnesota state senate, winning just 2 more seats in 2020 would have given Democrats control of the chamber. The Democratic candidates in these districts lost by only 1,813 votes. But there were 5,803 more votes for Biden than for these two Democratic state senate candidates.

  • Democrats could have flipped the MN Senate just by reducing roll-off, without turning out a single additional voter.
    
    

• Democrats needed 9 seats to gain control of the Texas state house in 2020, and in the 9 districts with the narrowest margins, Democratic candidates lost by 21,566 votes. Again, in those same districts, 41,685 more votes were cast for Biden than for the Democratic state house candidates. 

  • Democrats could have flipped the TX House just by reducing roll-off, without turning out a single additional voter.

These results show that roll-off can have a real impact on outcomes—not just for individual races but partisan control of entire chambers.

To learn more about these findings, please see our new report here. All of our previous research on roll-off can be found here.

Do you have any questions about this deep dive? Have an interesting study or report you’d like us to highlight? Hit reply and let us know! 

📢 Special Announcements

Events:

September 23, 2024 at 8 pm ET – Why States Matter: Voting Down-Ballot in 2024

• Join Sister District + Daily Kos for a virtual event highlighting why voting down-ballot in 2024 is so critically important.
• Special Guests:
  • Tennessee State Rep. Justin Jones
  • Virginia State Sen. Danica Roem
  • Author and historian Heather Cox Richardson
  • Moderators: Gaby Goldstein, Sister District Co-Founder, and David Nir, Daily Kos Political Director

October 15, 2024 at 7 pm ET – Fireside Chat: A Conversation with David Daley

• Join Sister District for a conversation with David Daley about his new book Antidemocratic: Inside the Far Right's 50-Year Plot to Control American Elections.
• The conversation will be moderated by Gaby Goldstein, Co-Founder of Sister District. There will be ample time for audience Q&A.

ICYMI – Fireside Chat: A Conversation with Ari Berman about his new book Minority Rule: The Right-Wing Attack on the Will of the People — And the Fight to Resist It.

See you next month!

In solidarity,
Gaby

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