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Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we explore record oil and natural gas production, new presidential election polling in Arizona, and whether carpenters can afford the homes they build.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

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1. Oil Production Booms Under Biden
 
 
 
 

Topline: Despite former President Donald Trump’s strong association with oil and gas production (we’ve heard a lot of “Drill, baby, drill” recently), AEI’s Roger Pielke Jr. shows that the US is seeing record oil and natural gas production under President Joe Biden.

Trend Lines: Although oil production dipped during the pandemic, production on federal lands has steadily increased since 2013. Similarly, US natural gas production and liquefied natural gas exports are at record highs.

“It might be fair to conclude that the ‘drill, baby, drill’ president is whichever one happens to be in office, regardless of their party or policies. The biggest difference might be simply how they talk about energy.” 
—Roger Pielke Jr.
 
 
More on US Energy Production
 
 
2. Swing State Showdown: Arizona
 
 
 
 

Topline: Following Vice President Kamala Harris’s recent tour of swing states, AEI’s Chris Stirewalt notes that Arizona has become more competitive—putting Republicans on the defensive. While Donald Trump previously led Joe Biden by 6 points in Arizona, a recent poll shows Harris leading Trump by nearly 3 points.

Down Ballot: Stirewalt points out that Republicans' struggles extend down the ballot, with Kari Lake trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) by 11 points in the Senate race.

But . . . the race for Arizona still poses challenges for Democrats. Border policy is an important issue for Arizona voters, so Republicans will continue to criticize Democrats on the Biden-Harris administration’s policies.

“[Harris’s gains in the South put] Republicans in a position of having to defend must-win states instead of looking for one crack in the three states up north.” 
—Chris Stirewalt
 
 
See New Election Analysis
 
 
3. Can Carpenters Afford a Home?
 
 
 
 
Topline: They can build homes, but can they afford them? AEI’s Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter explain the state of housing affordability for working-class Americans in their Carpenter Index. Of the nation’s 100 largest metro areas, the number of areas with affordable starter homes for the average carpenter household has decreased from 94 in 2012 to 39 in 2023.

  • Least Affordable Metros: San Jose, California; Oxnard, California; San Diego, California; Los Angeles, California; and Provo, Utah

  • Most Affordable Metros: Toledo, Ohio; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Rochester, New York, with Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Albany, New York, significantly improving their affordability since 2012

“The driver of worsening FTB [first-time homebuyer] affordability from 2012 to 2023 was that home prices increased faster than incomes in the majority of metros.” 
—Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter
 
 
See Housing Affordability Data
 
 
But Wait, There’s More . . .
 
 
 
 
 
 
See Polling on Trade
 
 
 
 
More on Climate Science
 
 
Thanks for reading. We will be back with more data next Thursday!
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