Daily News Brief

August 14, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Prime Minister Kishida Fumio announced he will not seek reelection as head of his party, triggering a leadership contest for his replacement after his term ends next month. Kishida acknowledged the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had lost public trust over a scandal involving unreported funds, saying “the first step to show that the LDP has changed is for me to step down.” Kishida has presided over a strengthening of Japan’s ties with the West and a bolstering of its military spending, trends analysts said they expected would continue under the next administration.

The LDP has been in power almost continuously since its founding in the 1950s. It continues to dominate Japanese politics despite the current government’s low approval rating amid recent scandals and domestic concerns over inflation. Contenders to replace Kishida include the country’s foreign minister, who could be Japan’s first female prime minister. “The [U.S. President Joe] Biden-Kishida era will be remembered as a golden era in the U.S.-Japan alliance,” U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel said. (Asahi Shimbun, WaPo, Bloomberg)

Analysis

“I think the public will give Prime Minister Kishida a certain amount of credit, given the fact that he stepped down gracefully,” the University of Tokyo’s Yu Uchiyama tells the Washington Post. “However … in order for the LDP to regain a certain amount of trust, they will need to elect a leader who can give a clear impression of change.”

“Leadership change in Japan would likely not change the country’s strategic direction. The Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision, devised by former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s government, continues to steer Japanese policy towards the region,” CFR Senior Fellow Sheila A. Smith wrote in an April Expert Brief. “The National Security Strategy adopted by the Kishida government also will guide whoever succeeds him as prime minister, as will the commitment to raise Japanese investment in its military and expand its capabilities.”

Pacific Rim

The Constitutional Court ruled 5–4 that Srettha Thavisin breached the constitution by appointing a cabinet minister sentenced to six months in jail for bribery. The court ordered the cabinet disbanded as well. The legislature will select the country’s next leader. (Nikkei)

South and Central Asia

Sheikh Hasina, in her first public statement since fleeing the country last week, blamed “vandalism, arson, and violence” for the country’s more than three hundred deaths during antigovernment protests. Hours before, a Bangladeshi court ordered a murder investigation opened into Hasina and six senior figures from her government over the death of a grocery shop owner in July during police crackdowns on demonstrators; more such probes are expected. (NPR)

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick writes that Bangladesh is teetering on the edge of reconciliation and chaos.

Afghanistan/Pakistan: A border clash between Pakistani and Afghan security forces killed three Afghan civilians, a Taliban official said yesterday. Pakistan’s military did not immediately comment. (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa

U.S., Egyptian, and Qatari mediators are pushing for progress toward a cease-fire and hostage release deal in the new round of meetings. Yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden said he does not expect Iran to carry out an anticipated attack against Israel if a cease-fire is agreed upon. The U.S. State Department also notified Congress of its plans to sell some $20 billion in weapons to Israel over the next several years. (NYT, FT) 

U.S./Saudi Arabia: Washington is restarting sales of certain types of offensive arms to Saudi Arabia that had been paused in 2021 over disapproval of Saudi support for the war in Yemen. Riyadh “met their end of the deal” on restraining military actions in Yemen, an unnamed U.S. official told the Washington Post. The United States plans to send Saudi Arabia some $750 million worth of bombs in the coming months. (WaPo, WSJ) 

This Backgrounder by Kali Robinson details Saudi Arabia’s role in Yemen’s war. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention elevated the virus to emergency level yesterday, which is designed to put health agencies on alert and mobilize funding. Mpox was detected in at least thirteen African countries as of last week, the agency said, warning that it could soon spill overseas. (AP)

For Think Global Health, Linda Nordling explains how the declaration enables Africa to take a more prominent role in the mpox response. 

Tanzania: Police released hundreds of supporters of the main opposition party yesterday following their detentions on Sunday and Monday. Amnesty International said the detentions aimed to intimidate the opposition ahead of this year’s local elections and next year’s national vote. (Reuters)

Europe

Russia said it ordered troops to respond to a Ukrainian advance that has pushed into Russian territory, the biggest foreign incursion into the country since World War II. Ukraine has captured hundreds of Russian fighters in the offensive, according to videos verified by the Financial Times. (NYT, FT)

UK: More than five hundred people have received charges such as violent disorder and assaulting emergency workers since anti-immigration riots broke out across the United Kingdom (UK) last month. More than one thousand people in total have been detained. (Bloomberg, BBC) 

In this YouTube Short, CFR expert Jacob Ware unpacks what’s been going on with the UK’s far-right protests. 

Americas

A four-expert panel that observed Venezuela’s July 28 vote said election day was “logistically well organized,” but the fact that the election authorities failed to release detailed data on the results “has no precedent in contemporary democratic elections.” (WaPo)

For the Latin America’s Moment blog, CFR expert Will Freeman explains how Venezuela’s vote will put Latin America’s left to the test.

Canada: The country’s temporary foreign worker program “is in need of reform,” Ottawa’s immigration minister told Reuters yesterday after a UN report cited accounts of underpayment, wage theft, and a variety of other abuses. Permits for workers employed through the program have grown in recent years from some 84,000 in 2018 to almost 136,000 in 2022. (Reuters, CTV News)

U.S. Campaign 2024

An FBI probe of suspected Iranian attempts to target the U.S. election detected an effort to breach the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris, an unnamed U.S. law enforcement official told Bloomberg. It is unclear if the attempt was successful. On Monday, the FBI publicly said it was investigating a breach of former President Donald Trump’s campaign. Iran’s mission to the United Nations said it has no “intent or motive” to interfere in the election. (Bloomberg) 

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