Russia's war in Ukraine is Moscow's most significant use of force outside its borders since World War II. The stakes could not be higher for the Kremlin. However, Russia’s leaders have not clearly explained to the public or the troops what Moscow is trying to achieve through its military operation. Their messages have either been mixed, inconsistent, or completely mismatched with the situation on the ground.
This lack of a coherent public narrative about the war in Ukraine contradicts a core tenet of Russian strategy: the necessity to link political goals and military action.
A new RAND report examines this inconsistency and identifies several possible reasons for Moscow's incoherent messaging. For example, after the initial failure of Russia's invasion plan, President Vladimir Putin might have deliberately avoided specifying an end goal to maximize his ability to change course politically.
Overall, the report's findings suggest that Moscow's publicly declared objectives are unlikely to be useful to those outside Russia. “If governments are to gain insights into Russia’s bottom line at any given point in time,” the authors write, “they might have to rely on direct, private communication with the leadership in Moscow.”
A new RAND study finds a strong connection between foster care and housing instability among young adults in Los Angeles County. Our researchers surveyed hundreds of 18- to 25-year-olds who are experiencing housing instability. More than one-third reported involvement with the foster care system. Many also reported mental health struggles and experiences with the criminal justice system. Despite these challenges, this group remains motivated: More than 95 percent expressed interest in housing; more than 60 percent were not in school but planned to attend; and nearly half were unemployed but actively looking for work. Read more »
Deaths involving synthetic opioids—primarily fentanyl—have risen sharply in recent years. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were nearly 74,000 such deaths in 2022. Although these losses are staggering, America's opioid crisis is not without historical precedent, say RAND experts. At the beginning of the 19th century, widespread addiction to opium in China destroyed millions of lives and ravaged the country. Breaking down China's history of being blighted by drugs reveals insights that may help the United States “fight the human and societal damage that fentanyl inflicts on Americans today.” Read more »
RAND Recommends
What does the evidence say about the effects of permitless-carry laws? “Estimates are showing that this movement to a more permissive [concealed-carry] regime is on the side of harming public safety versus protecting it,” RAND's Rosanna Smart told The Trace.
In the Tampa Bay Times, RAND's Catherine Augustine discussed what makes summer learning programs effective.
Bad actors will use deepfakes to try to “manipulate what people think are the trusted sources of information,” says RAND's Christopher Doss. Fakes that depict scientists “are probably going to be something that we see more of.”
Applications are open for Pardee RAND Graduate School's new Master of National Security Policy degree program. Full-time and part-time schedules are available at our campuses in Santa Monica, CA, and Arlington, VA.
