Friend, 

This might be the most common request we get on social media or on the podcasts – "Help sort out what's real and what's not!"

Let me lead with this. All the momentum is in Kamala Harris and Tim Walz's favor right now. Yes, Trump is having the worst month of his campaign. JD is weird. Trump is basically in hiding watching his campaign managers tank his race. And record-breaking crowds are coming out for Harris/Walz, and that makes Trump even more mad.

The data backs this up, too, which is what I wanted to make sure you knew so you could share with your friends and networks. There are so many polls out there, and you can honestly ignore nearly all of them. But what you can't ignore is momentum and the key things under the hood that give you clear indicators about which way a race is going.

• A new Marquette poll (one of the most reliable pollsters out there) has Harris up 53-47. Trump led by 3 in their last poll. Is it really a 9 point swing? Maybe. But if you want to think about momentum in one stat – there it is. And polls in battleground states agree:
• Even the NYT polls are showing a big flip. They had consistently shown Trump ahead in battlegrounds. Now Harris leads Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by 4 points. Again, ignore the head-to-head but look at the direction all the polls are moving.
• Look under the hood too. A new Somos poll (one of the biggest and best when it comes to tracking Latino voter sentiment) shows that excitement among Latinos to vote is now through the roof – and getting close to mirroring Joe Biden's 2020 performance with room to grow. (Turns out when Trump's favorables are in the golden toilet it matters)
• And finally – looking at a new poll from The Financial Times/University of Michigan – for the first time this cycle, voters trust a Democrat (Harris) more than Trump on the economy. This might be the single biggest nugget to take from this. Yes, abortion and immigration are going to matter a lot. We are seeing it everywhere internally (more on this later). But when Trump's biggest advantage (voter perceptions of the economy) is taken away, what does he have? Spoiler: not a lot.

So yes, the momentum is shifting. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are giving America the best chance we've had to beat Trump in a long time. But in many ways, the fundamental fact of this race has not changed. Beating Trump will come down to four states: Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 

We've known this since the beginning. We knew it when we beat Trump by 70k votes in three states in 2020. We saw more evidence with the "red wave" fizzling in 2022 and over a dozen good results in special elections for Democrats since.

I have been doing this for 40+ years. I have been on both sides of big momentum swings like this. What this all boils down to is I would rather be us than them. Even more so now. If you're with us – this is it. We need you now more than ever.

Our team at The Lincoln Project is laser focused on Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. It's where we need you to help us. It's where Kamala Harris and Tim Walz need you to help us with those moveable "Bannon Line" Republicans. Pitch in today and let's keep the hard work going through Election Day >>

-Trippi