War Is
Over
Peace returns, sort of. The end of lockdown means a return to work
for many, but not all, businesses and workers. It is also time to
survey the ruins. The Government has belatedly realised how damaging
the lockdown is and now seeks Alert Level Two as soon as possible. Two
weeks won’t be long enough to see what the rate of spread is under
Alert Level Three conditions, but it is long enough for the Government
to save face from admitting it overreacted.
Aspiration
Beats Fear
We are constantly told how bad the virus is and how lucky we are to
have had good leadership. We need to dump the fear and become
aspirational. We could start by changing the countries we look to.
Instead of saying ‘thank god we are not Italy’ we could be asking ‘why
we are not Taiwan?’ We should also be openly asking what Sweden (with
no lockdown) and Iceland can teach us, even
Australia.
The Taiwanese Miracle...
...was not a miracle. They decided to go smart and go early. Yesterday’s
conversation between David Seymour and Jeff Liu, a local
representative of the Taiwanese Government, shows how 23 million
people only 150km from China managed 400 cases and 6 deaths without a
lockdown. When they say smart, they used big data to pinpoint where
the infection was (don’t worry, they are a democracy). When they say
early, their Government's response was fully implemented by 20
January.
We Need An Open Debate
The Government can be forgiven for taking drastic action under
pressure at the end of March. But the modelling it relied upon hasn’t
been vindicated by real New Zealand transmission rates. The rigid
insistence on continuing severe measures did not account for the
economic and health costs it imposed. Many people do not want to
accept we might have got it wrong, but we must ask how we could have
done better.
Transparency Still Matters
Keen eyes have noticed that the moniker for Alert Level 4 used to
be ‘Eliminate’ but after 16 April it became ‘Lockdown.’ Why the
change? Will any journalist ask this? There is a nagging feeling that
the Government originally meant elimination in the plain language
sense, realised its error, and is trying to back away from the
concept.
An Honorable Role
Throughout the crisis, ACT has been first to call for the borders
to be closed, for the Government
to take the crisis seriously, for MP
pay to be cut, for ‘safe
not essential’ businesses to be open, and for hunting
to be allowed, among much other lobbying and suggestions. All
along the way we have kept to David Seymour’s maxim of making
constructive criticisms where necessary and helpful suggestions where
possible.
Good Economics Before The Crisis
…remains good economics after the crisis. Nobody outside South
America has ever campaigned on taking people’s money and scattering it
from a helicopter. Normally even Labour Finance Ministers would laugh
at the suggestion. The fact that giving every citizen $1500 of
taxpayers’ money is even suggested shows how far we’ve slipped from
basic policy sense.
Lots To Do
New Zealand went into this election with four per cent unemployment
and just over 20 per cent public debt because our underlying policy
settings that date to Roger Douglas’s time are sound. We need to
defend these settings from weird and wonderful onslaughts while
advocating supply side reforms that will aid in the recovery. We will
need to roll back pointless and costly regulations, balance the budget
as soon as possible, and open to the world with the smartest borders
possible. That’s the path back to prosperity.
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