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In this mailing:
* Con Coughlin: Iran Knows It Cannot Win a War against Israel
* Amir Taheri: Iran: A Grin and Bear it Game?


** Iran Knows It Cannot Win a War against Israel ([link removed])
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by Con Coughlin • August 11, 2024 at 5:00 am
* [T]he likelihood of Iran launching another attack against Israel in retaliation for Haniyeh's assassination appears to be receding, not least because Tehran is well aware that, in any major military confrontation with Israel, it will inevitably be the loser.
* Israeli officials also believe that the initial assault will not originate from Iran. The latest intelligence assessment by Israeli officials, reported on August 7, indicates a shift in expectations regarding the source of the anticipated attack.
* Cooperation between Israel and Russia has often resulted in the Russians turning a blind eye when Israel attacks Iranian positions in Syria, even though Russia and Iran are supposed to be allies working together in their joint venture to keep Syria's Assad regime in power.
* In responding to Iran's desperate plea for more arms, therefore, Putin may be reluctant to take any action that could upset his delicate relationship with Israel.

For all Iran's threats to retaliate against Israel for assassinating key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, the key concern for the ayatollahs will be that, in any confrontation with the Israeli military, they have no chance of winning. Pictured: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) meets with Ismail Haniyeh (C), head of the political bureau of Hamas, and Ziyad al-Nakhalah, Secretary General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, on July 30, 2024. (Photo by the Iranian Supreme Leader's Press Office via Getty Images)

For all Iran's threats to retaliate against Israel for assassinating key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, the key concern for the ayatollahs will be that, in any confrontation with the Israeli military, they have no chance of winning.

Tensions between Iran and Israel have risen considerably since Israel was accused of carrying out the assassination of Hamas Political Bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran shortly after the swearing in ceremony for Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian last month.

Although Israel rarely confirms or denies its involvement in overseas assassinations, the Iranian regime has been quick to accuse Israel of killing Haniyeh, who reportedly died after a bomb exploded in his guest apartment in northern Tehran. A senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, was assassinated in Beirut the previous day, in an operation for which Israel took credit.

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** Iran: A Grin and Bear it Game? ([link removed])
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by Amir Taheri • August 11, 2024 at 4:00 am
* A repeat of the recent comedy of launching 400 flying objects against Israel while making sure none reaches a target would be one hoax too many, even from a master of all hoaxes.
* Even if the ayatollah manages to kill many Israelis and Palestinians in an initial raid, he may be putting his whole regime at risk.
* Exposed as a big talker and small achiever, he could face an internal popular uprising that might wish to seek a different way of life.
* Khamenei knows that, and yellow being his favorite color, he is trying to step back from the brink with a minimum loss of face.
* Khamenei's new shying-off tactic could give Israel the chance to follow the destruction of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza with the crippling of the Houthis, the next laggard. That could be followed by "downgrading" the laggards in Iraq, with tacit support from the Iraqi regular army and Israel's allies inside Iraq. That would put Hezbollah next in line for downgrading.
* All that, of course, is speculation. But the fact is that anyone who thinks Khamenei would risk his own skin for Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, Hashd al-Shaabi and Hezbollah needs to have his head examined.

Even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei manages to kill many Israelis and Palestinians in an initial raid, he may be putting his whole regime at risk. Exposed as a big talker and small achiever, he could face an internal popular uprising that might wish to seek a different way of life. Pictured: Khamenei on July 5, 2024 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

"Today he is the bravest, the wisest and the most popular leader of the Resistance Front." This is how the Iranian daily Kayhan spoke of guess who.

Wrong guess.

The daily's editorialists are notorious for their exaggerated praise of the "Supreme Guide" Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But this time it was not Khamenei they had in mind. Believe it or not, it was Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah, who was thus being accoladed beyond his wildest dreams. You may wonder why.... Until recently, the Tehran media treated Nasrallah as something of an Iranian satrap in Beirut. Each time he came to Tehran, he was reported to have asked for an audience with the Great Leader to offer a report on his satrapy.

So, what's happening?

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