Daily News Brief

August 9, 2024

Top of the Agenda

The three leaders called on both Israel and Hamas to “resume urgent discussion” on August 15 to “close all remaining gaps” to reaching a cease-fire and hostage release deal in a joint statement yesterday. They are prepared to present a “final bridging proposal” to resolve outstanding issues, they wrote. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would send a delegation to the August 15 talks, while Hamas did not immediately respond. The push to conclude negotiations comes as the Middle East braces for a potential Iranian retaliation for the July 31 killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. 

It was not immediately clear who would represent Hamas in the talks after Yahya Sinwar was elevated from Hamas’s military leader to political leader following Haniyeh’s killing. Sinwar, mastermind of the October 7 attacks that triggered the Israel-Hamas war, is believed to be hiding in Gaza. The president of France and foreign minister of the Netherlands said today on social media that they endorse the fresh U.S.-Egyptian-Qatari mediation push. (White House, Bloomberg, AFP, X)

Analysis

“The administration is looking to preempt regional escalation and end [the] war in Gaza. Will this make-or-break meeting in Cairo restrain Iran and the resistance axis? Does Iran want the Gaza war to end? Perhaps a temporary deescalation to give them an excuse not to strike Israel,” the Carnegie Endowment’s Aaron David Miller posts. 

“Doubling down on confrontation with Iran and its allies without a political or strategic game plan is unlikely to change the emerging regional dynamics that so worry Israeli military planners,” the University of California, Los Angeles’s Dalia Dassa Kaye writes for Foreign Affairs. “It is unlikely to deter the members of the ‘axis of resistance,’ who may themselves double down in unexpected ways.”

This article by CFR’s Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow maps the growing U.S. presence in the Middle East.

Pacific Rim

The Move Forward party won the most seats in Thailand’s election last year, but it was banned earlier this week by the country’s constitutional court after attempting to amend Thailand’s lèse-majesté law. Its former members regrouped as part of the People’s Party, now the largest opposition party in parliament. (Nikkei)

Australia/Canada: The countries’ defense ministers agreed to increase the interoperability of their armed forces at a meeting in Vancouver yesterday, Canada’s defense minister said. They cited concerns over Beijing’s maritime claims in the South China Sea, its military activity around Taiwan, and security challenges in the Arctic. (Reuters, CBC)  

This In Brief by CFR’s Natalie Caloca explores Australia’s growing defense role in the Indo-Pacific.

South and Central Asia

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s three-day visit beginning today will be his first since a Maldives election in October in which the winning candidate called for Indian troops to leave the country. India and the Maldives have worked to improve bilateral ties in recent months; New Delhi said the visit “is aimed at strengthening the close partnership.” (Hindustan Times)

This In Brief by Rhea Basarkar looks at how the Maldives is moving closer to China.

India: Scooter maker Ola jumped in trading after becoming the first electric vehicle company of any kind to debut on the stock market in India, reflecting strong interest in India’s electric-mobility market. (Nikkei, WSJ)

Middle East and North Africa

Iran’s efforts include creating fake news sites, impersonating activists, and targeting a presidential campaign with an email phishing attack, researchers from Microsoft said today in a new threat intelligence report. Iran’s mission to the United Nations denied any election interference in a statement to the Associated Press. (AP)

Sub-Saharan Africa

The Sudanese government sent a delegation to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to meet with U.S. envoys ahead of August 14 peace talks in Geneva with the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces, the opposing side in the country’s civil war. The Sudanese army has also been invited to the peace talks. (Sudan Tribune)

For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR expert Michelle Gavin argues the need for more humanitarian innovation amid Sudan’s civil war.

Mozambique: A New York federal jury yesterday found former Finance Minister Manuel Chang guilty of taking $7 million in bribes. Chang led Mozambique’s finance ministry from 2005 until 2015 and was extradited to the United States last year. (WSJ) 

Europe

Austrian police detained an eighteen-year-old Iraqi national in their investigation of plans to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, the interior minister said today. He is believed to have links to the main suspect. (CNN)

Spain: Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont returned to Spain for the first time in seven years and addressed a crowd before evading detention. A Spanish police officer was arrested for aiding his escape. Puigdemont is wanted for misusing government funds; he led a failed effort for Catalan independence in 2017. (FT)

Americas

President Nicolás Maduro ordered a ten-day suspension on access to X, saying its owner Elon Musk had “incited hatred.” The move comes amid widespread dissent over the government’s unwillingness to release detailed results of July’s presidential election, which Maduro says he won. (AP)

Brazil/Nicaragua: Brazil withdrew its ambassador to Nicaragua yesterday in response to Managua’s similar move last month as bilateral ties continue to worsen. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had recently attempted to broker the release of a Catholic bishop who is jailed in Nicaragua. (MercoPress)

U.S. Campaign 2024

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will participate in a debate moderated by ABC on September 10, both campaigns and the network said. President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign last month and endorsed Harris after mounting pressure triggered by his poor performance in a June 27 debate with Trump. (CNN)

Friday Editor’s Pick

The Atlantic documents the violence, hunger, disease, and other challenges migrants face as they journey through the treacherous Darién Gap jungle between Colombia and Panama.

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