It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

24 THINGS DONALD TRUMP IS PROMISING TO DO
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Former President Donald Trump is known for his off-script moments. But his signature freewheeling banter also masks important consistency. He is, actually, predictable.

Listening to his recent on-the-campaign-trail speeches reveals some patterns:
* He speaks close to 90 minutes. Despite switching on and off prompter, Trump’s style has a timing precision. His rally speeches in the last week of July were about 92 ([link removed]) , 93 ([link removed]) and 88 ([link removed]) minutes in length, respectively.
* The last 20 minutes at his rallies focus on his platform. A list of pledges and promises that are the core substance of his speeches and campaign.

The latter is where we want to focus today: What Trump is saying he will do.

The Republican presidential nominee rarely commits to details or specifics. This is not unique to him as a politician, but Trump has a particularly pronounced form. His personal disregard for long policy briefs and policy intricacies is well known. Trump’s primary approach as a politician is operating by instinct.

Thus, the question of what Trump himself proposes is a critical one.

We analyzed three rally speeches following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race. He made nearly the same promises at each one, each time a cap to his stump speech.

Below is a full list of what Trump promised, alongside some context. Of course, this is not a comprehensive list of every promise Trump has made, rather, a focused look at what he is promising right now on the campaign trail.

A quick note: For some items, we have left the reader to interpret for themselves. Those are broad pledges that are straightforward, but not detailed such as, “I will keep you out of wars,” or, “I will prevent World War III.”

1. On Day 1, “we will begin the largest deportation operation in American history.”

Context: Trump is pledging to deploy a “massive dragnet” to arrest and deport millions of undocumented migrants. He has told crowds, and Time Magazine ([link removed]) in April, that he would use local law enforcement to do this as well as, potentially, the National Guard and active duty military. He has not offered more specifics about how any of those mechanisms would work. He has indicated in his speeches that he would first target “criminals,” mentioning violent crimes like murder and rape.

This is not a new pledge. Trump promised mass deportations ([link removed]) as part of his 2016 campaign.

2. “My very first day back in the White House, I will terminate every single open border policy of the Biden-Harris administration, and we will seal the border.”

Context: Trump has promised to restore some of his hardline immigration policies that the Biden administration has reversed. He gave a rundown of this in Minnesota, saying, “I will restore the travel ban, suspend refugee admissions, stop the resettlement, and keep the terrorists the hell out of our country.”

Trump’s initial ban of people arriving from Muslim countries was ruled unconstitutional ([link removed]) , but he revised it ([link removed].) to focus on potential threats, though it still largely included Muslim countries.

In addition, Trump would bring back “Remain in Mexico,” which aimed to force asylum seekers to wait in Mexico before they could cross into the United States to claim asylum. That policy has faced legal ([link removed]) , human rights ([link removed]) and political pushback on both sides ([link removed].) of the border.

Trump has also indicated he may try to use Title 42 emergency powers for immigration purposes, especially in returning child migrants to families. And he has left open the idea of again separating migrant families, though a court has ruled ([link removed]) that policy cannot restart during the next administration.

3. “We will drill, baby, drill.”
4. “We will end inflation and make America affordable again.”

A pledge to end inflation ranks high on the 2024 Republican Party platform, though inflation has been down. As for the promise to “make America affordable again”? With Trump offering no specifics, that’s up for interpretation. ([link removed])

5. “I will terminate the Green New Scam,” and end the electric vehicle mandate.

Context: As readers may know, the Green New Deal is a set of progressive-left climate and workplace ideas, most concretely written into legislative proposals ([link removed]) by Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. The Green New Deal is not U.S. law, but Trump is using it in speeches to bash an unspecified range of ideas from the “radical left.”

Regarding EVs, Biden put in place a new federal regulation ([link removed]) in March that required automakers to increase fuel efficiency of their cars substantially over a number of years. That requirement would force many car companies to convert vehicles to electric or partially electric to meet the standard. Biden’s policy has faced an avalanche ([link removed]) of lawsuits ([link removed]) already. Some believe it may be legally doomed ([link removed]) , regardless of who becomes president, following a recent Supreme Court ruling.

6. “We will pass massive tax cuts for workers” that include no tax on tips.

Context: This is a complicated area. Trump wants to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act tax cuts that went in place during his administration, but they’re set to expire in 2025. This would affect millions of Americans. Some 80 percent of households saw a tax cut in 2018 because of the TCJA, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center ([link removed]) . This would not be a new tax cut, but rather a proposal to stop taxes from going up.

Trump does not mention this in his speeches, but Politico has reported ([link removed]) that he has told business leaders he would like to lower corporate taxes, which will keep their 2017 tax cuts regardless. Those do not expire.

At the same time, CNBC has reported ([link removed]) that Trump, in a meeting with House Republicans, raised the idea of replacing individual income taxes with an “all tariff policy.” That idea has met with sharp pushback from some economists who say it is mathematically impossible ([link removed]) and that tariffs generally have a regressive effect — they hurt working classes the most ([link removed]) . (See below for more on tariffs.)

His tips idea is more straightforward. Trump wants to end taxation on income earned by tips ([link removed]) . (This would require congressional action to move forward.) The Washington Post found that more than 6 million workers reported tips to the IRS ([link removed]) in 2018. At the same time, this idea could cost some $150 to $250 billion in federal revenue ([link removed]) over 10 years, per the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

7. “I will revoke China's most favored nation status.”

Context: China was granted permanent and “most favored” trade status in 2001 ([link removed]) by Republican President George W. Bush, meaning the U.S. generally should offer China trade terms that are as good as any other trading partner with the U.S.

8. “I will pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, that means that if China or any other country makes us pay a 100 or 200 percent tariff or tax, we will make them pay a reciprocal tariff or tax of 100 or 200 percent immediately, right back.”

Context: Trump explains this concept succinctly here. He would lean into any tariff war, retaliating “eye-for-an-eye” for a tariff imposed by other countries. Trump argues that this will protect American jobs, especially in manufacturing and other competitive industries. But others, including the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute ([link removed]) , say it would end up being an economic mistake, raising prices for American consumers across the board and harming workers the most.

9. Shortly after regaining the Oval Office, “I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled … quickly.”
10. “I will prevent World War III.”
11. “I will restore peace through strength.”

Context: World War III has been mentioned a ton in Trump speeches. In drawing a contrast between Biden and himself in their first presidential debate, Trump warned viewers that the president would draw the country further into global conflict. Now facing off against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has continued to invoke the specter of a third World War.

Here’s how he put it in his speech in Charlotte, North Carolina: “I will prevent World War III. We’re heading to World War III, we’re heading right into the teeth of it … I will restore peace through strength."

12. “In my next term, we will build a great Iron Dome missile defense shield over our country, a dome the likes of which no one has ever seen before, and it will be entirely made in the USA.”

Note: In Minnesota, Trump said “it will be entirely made in Minnesota … Minnesota has got a big piece of it.

Context: Trump is referencing Israel’s project Iron Dome ([link removed]) , a series of missile defense capabilities that aim to destroy short-range weapons launched against the country. It is not clear what threats Trump aims the dome to address, with some experts pointing out ([link removed]) that the contiguous U.S. is surrounded by allied countries and oceans. Intelligence officials said China was responsible for a spy balloon ([link removed]) that sailed over the country in 2023 before it was shot down by current military capabilities.

Minnesota is the nation’s leading producer of iron ore.

13. “I will not cut one penny from Social Security or Medicare, and I will not raise the retirement age.”

Context: Social Security’s trust funds will be depleted by 2035 ([link removed]) , according to this year’s trustees report. At that point, without any action by lawmakers in Washington, payments to seniors will be cut by 27 percent. Medicare’s hospital trust fund would go broke in 2036 under the current policy.

There are a few ways to provide solvency, but increasingly all involve some pain — increasing retirement age, cutting benefits or increasing what some or all Americans must contribute.

Trump’s promise misses the important context that without any action, there will be cuts to these benefits.

14. “I am going to keep you out of wars.”
15. “We have people at the top [of the military] that are woke, and they’re all gone. We are going to get rid of them so fast.”

Context: Trump said this in St. Cloud, Minnesota, only. Trump asserted that most military generals are not “woke,” but that some are. Trump is pledging to get rid of those who are “woke.”

16. “We are going to rebuild our cities into beacons of hope, safety and beauty better than they've ever been before.”

Context: Trump says he would work with Democratic mayors and governors to achieve this, but has not provided details.

Trump regularly raises concerns about crime in America, especially in cities. Politifact checked these statements ([link removed]) and found Trump’s words about rising crime rates to be “mostly false,” because violent crime rates have fallen for most of the country. Property crime has risen, including car thefts.

In addition, the conservative American Enterprise Institute has written about data showing that urban Americans are slightly more likely ([link removed]) to say they’re “pretty happy” with their lives than rural Americans.

17. “We will take over the horribly run capital of our nation … and clean it up, renovate it, rebuild it.”

Context: Trump’s vision for the nation’s capital is to require traditional and neoclassical architecture ([link removed]) , based on Renaissance ideas of Greco-Roman aesthetics. As he was exiting his presidency in late 2020, he issued an executive order ([link removed]) declaring that the federal government has “largely stopped building beautiful buildings” and that in D.C., “classical architecture shall be the preferred and default architecture for Federal public buildings.”

In these rally speeches, Trump has also said of D.C. that “we are going to take over the management, the leadership of it.” Residents of the nation’s capital do not have a vote in Congress, but for 50 years Congress has allowed them “home rule,” so that their city council can generally oversee how the city operates. Congress and the White House retain a kind of veto power. Trump allies and pushing to end D.C. home rule ([link removed]) . This may be what he is implying here. ([link removed])

18. I will sign an executive order that cuts federal funding “for any school pushing critical race theory, transgender insanity and other inappropriate racial, sexual or political content onto the shoulders of our children.”

Context: There is a lot to unpack here. But Trump has largely not defined precisely which policies he would attempt to penalize. At the same time, there is a legal battle over interpretations of Biden administration rules that declare Title IX protections based on sex include safeguards for LGBTQ+ youth ([link removed]) . Trump’s policies would need to follow federal court guidance, once established.

19. I will defund any school that has a vaccine or mask mandate.

Context: See this helpful segment ([link removed]) from White House correspondent Laura Barrón-López. In short, medical experts say the implications of eliminating vaccine mandates would be enormous for schools and for public health.

20. “I will keep men out of women's sports.”

Context: Trump is proposing a ban on transgender women from participating in women’s sports ([link removed]) . When he speaks about this, he largely refers to youth sports. See above, regarding trans youth.

21. “I will fully uphold our Second Amendment.”

Context: Trump has indicated that he would oppose most, if not all, new restrictions on gun usage and ownership. ([link removed])

22. “We will protect innocent life.”

Context: On abortion, Trump supports the current status quo, that is to say that states have the right to restrict or nearly ban abortion as they choose. This stance on abortion has put him at odds with some of his base voters who would like a national ban. But Trump has indicated he would not support that. ([link removed])

A side note: Trump does not usually use the word “abortion” in his speeches. Instead he nods to the issue, as well as others, by using this broad phrasing.

23. “We will restore, very quickly, free speech.”

Context: This short phrase leads to an extensive plan for “free speech” reform ([link removed]) that Trump announced in 2022. He would use presidential power to limit what rules federal agencies, universities and tech companies could employ to address speech, including controversial ideas.

Trump, alongside other right-wing figures and his supporters, have made continuous claims that a combination of news media, social media platforms and a “deep state” arm ([link removed]) of the government have sought to suppress their speech.

Trump has been a major purveyor of “the Big Lie” — that the 2020 election was “stolen” and he was the real winner. Biden won the election. Despite Trump’s insistence that he was the actual victor, courts on the state and federal level confirmed the outcome ([link removed]) of the election ([link removed]) in Biden’s favor. In fact, Biden broke the record ([link removed]) for the most total votes cast for a U.S. presidential candidate, a record previously set by Barack Obama in 2008.

24. “I will secure our elections.”

Context: This promise echoes the official Republican party platform of securing elections by calling for same-day voting, paper ballots, proof of citizenship and voter identification. At the same time, Republican leaders have urged voters to use all available options for casting their ballots, like absentee or mail-in voting. Trump has falsely claimed that voting by mail or using drop boxes is less secure and, thus, more open to mass voter fraud. (It’s not.) ([link removed])

Trump, since losing the 2020 election to Biden, has repeatedly cast doubt on the outcome and integrity of the last presidential contest. Trump delivered combative remarks and baseless claims of voter fraud to supporters, moments before the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Part of his reelection message to his base has been to “guard the vote.” ([link removed]) This has raised alarm bells over safeguarding democracy and escalated concerns about voter intimidation and election workers in November.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: Kamala Harris holds 1st rally ([link removed]) with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz after choosing him as her running mate.
* One Big Question: Does the vice presidential pick have an impact on the race? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss. ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: As Trump questions Harris’ identity, a look at the history of race in American politics. ([link removed])
* Perspectives: Black women in Georgia discuss their key election issues ([link removed]) and Harris’ historic campaign.

HOW AMERICANS FEEL ABOUT WALZ
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Photo by Glen Stubbe/Minneapolis Star Tribune/TNS/ABACAPRESS.COM
By Laura Santhanam, @LauraSanthanam ([link removed])
Health Reporter & Coordinating Producer for Polling

Vice President Kamala Harris has officially announced her pick ([link removed]) for running mate and many Americans don’t know much about him, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll ([link removed]) .

About 7 in 10 Americans say they don’t know Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz well enough to have a positive or negative opinion of him.
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Graphic by Jenna Cohen/PBS News
* 71 percent of U.S. adults said they are unsure of who Walz is or have never heard of him
* 17 percent said they view him favorably
* 12 percent view Walz unfavorably

The 60-year-old was elected as Minnesota’s governor in 2018 and has served in the Army National Guard for 24 years. He was also a high school teacher and football coach. Overall, few Americans appear to know much about him, according to this latest poll.

Given the breakneck pace of American politics lately, the Democratic ticket has enough time to make an impression ([link removed]) in the 90-some days left before Election Day, Republican strategist Olivia Troye said.

Walz is expected to appear alongside Harris at a campaign rally Tuesday night ([link removed]) in Philadelphia.
Want to know more about polling? Check out our coverage:
* How Our Polls Work: An inside look at how the PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll is conducted. ([link removed])
* The Big Picture: What polling does — and doesn’t — tell us. ([link removed])
* A Small Reminder: What's the margin of error ([link removed]) ?

#POLITICSTRIVIA

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When Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz spoke with PBS News in July, he said there needs to be a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Watch the clip in the player above.

By Shrai Popat, @shraipopat ([link removed])
White House Producer

After winnowing a list of about a dozen contenders, Kamala Harris has now formally selected a running mate.

She picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, whose record and background ([link removed]) will now get more review — and scrutiny ([link removed]) — in the final weeks of the 2024 race. In short, Walz is a military veteran, a former school teacher and former congressman who has helped push for Democratic causes such as protections for abortion rights and aid to families.

He’s also credited among the first to label Donald Trump “weird,” ([link removed]) a kind of rhetoric Harris’ campaign and allies have embraced. He also apparently really loves animals. ([link removed]) And according to the Washington Post, he’s the first Democratic VP pick in decades to not go to law school ([link removed]) .

Our question: Who was the last vice presidential pick on a Democratic ticket to not go to law school?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign once leaned into a certain internet meme that depicted a darker version of the Democrat. What was that meme called?

The answer: “Dark Brandon.” ([link removed]) Biden’s camp and his supporters reclaimed the meme, itself a combination of “Let’s Go Brandon” and “Dark MAGA,” from far-right internet messaging. This often meant a “cooler” version of the president — with laser eyes. Biden nodded to “Dark Brandon” by putting on dark sunglasses ([link removed]) at last year’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

Congratulations to our winners: Craig Fraley and Ric Grefé!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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