Is This a Kamala Sell-Off?

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Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Issue #1075
08/05/2024
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1) Is This a Kamala Sell-Off?

Markets here and around the world are convulsing. At the time of this writing (Monday morning) all three markets are nearing bear market territory.

Japan's market crashes overnight and commodity prices are tanking with the biggest fall in two decades.

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Whether this is a temporary blip or the start of a crash is indeterminable right now.

But what is knowable is that nearly every policy out of Washington is bearish. We've been saying this for a long time. Deficit spending is now $2 trillion annually. The budget is now $7 trillion. Regulations are tumbling out of the Biden administration at a record pace.

And we have a new presidential nominee who is even more anti-business than Biden. Kamala has been rising in the polls over the past week. Trump's odds of winning fell from 61% to 51% over the past two weeks.

We've mentioned before that there has been an apparent relationship between Trump's odds of winning and stock market performance.

There are always many reasons for stocks to fall. But Scott Bessent of Key Square is calling this a Kamala Krash. He may be right.

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2) No, Trump Will NOT Cause a Trade War
The latest attack on Trump is that he's a trade protectionist who will unleash a world trade war.

But that is what was said when he was elected in 2016 and it never happened. The volume of U.S. imports and exports rose while Trump was president with a dip in 2020 due to lockdowns.

One important factoid that many Americans don't know. Our North American neighbors and allies combined account for more trade with the U.S. than does China. We import almost three times more goods from China than we export. What is for sure is this deficit is likely to fall substantially if Trump wins.

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3) Seniors Who Work Can Pay Tax Rates of 70%
The Left is mighty nervous about Trump's latest idea to stop the unfair taxation of Social Security benefits. Why? Because it turns out the policy is popular with voters over the age of 65.

Unleash Prosperity's lead piece in Fox Business this weekend notes that seniors who continue to work after they're eligible for Social Security face marginal tax rates that can easily rise above 50 to 60%. In other words, for every dollar they earn, the federal government takes away more than 50 cents.

John Goodman of the Goodman Institute finds the rates can be above 70%.

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Millions of seniors WANT to keep working into their 60s and 70s – which is a good thing for them AND for our economy. So why is the government discouraging it?

But now the left – including people like Bill Kristol – are disingenuously complaining that a plan to let seniors keep more of their own money if they keep working, is really a trick "to make older people work longer."

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Huh? This plan only benefits seniors. There are no retirees who lose under this plan.

We can't speak for Trump, but at Unleash Prosperity we think that every American should decide for themselves when they retire, and if they decide to continue to work, the Social Security system shouldn't snatch away the extra money they earn. We're pro-choice on one's decision when to retire.

Incidentally, we have many HOTLINE subscribers who are working into their mid and late 80s (the new 60) and some into their early 90s! They should be given a medal, not a higher tax bill.

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4) Chevron, Iconic California Company, Leaves State After 145 Years
Chevron, formerly known as Standard Oil of California and still the state's major oil producer and refiner, is marking the 145th anniversary of its founding in the state by abandoning it and moving to Houston, Texas.

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Chevron CEO says the state is playing a "dangerous game" with draconian climate rules that are spiking gasoline prices and driving people and businesses to move.

Last year, Gov. Gavin Newsom effectively declared war on "Big Oil" when he established a new watchdog that has the power to penalize oil refiners that charge "too much" for gasoline. He promised to "hold
Big Oil accountable for fleecing Californians at the pump...it's time to choose whether to stand with California families or with Big Oil."

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The regulations piled on fossil fuel companies include a low-carbon fuel standard, cap-and-trade fees, drilling restrictions and a penalty on "excessive" refinery profits. Chevron's largest refinery in the state, may be saddled with a $1 a barrel tax if local voters approve a ballot measure this November.

Six months ago, Chevon filed a notice with the SEC that Newsom's regulation could cost the company $4 billion. Newsom ignored it, resulting in Chevron's "hasta la vista" departure.

Under Newsom, California is committing economic suicide on an accelerated installment plan.
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5) Let Kamala Out of the Basement

It's been over two weeks since President Biden dropped his candidacy and was swiftly replaced by Kamala Harris.

In all of that time, she has practiced her own version of Joe Biden's "basement" campaign in 2020. Zero news conferences, zero one-on-one interviews with even friendly media, and only scripted speeches that never deviate from a teleprompter. Her only unscripted comments ([link removed]) have come after this past weekend's release of U.S. hostages and were only marginally cogent.

The media has so far let her get away with all of this. Even more bizarre is the fact that they have credited her with abandoning her positions on everything from banning fracking to opposing more border enforcement without pointing out that none of it has come in her own voice.

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All of her issue pivots have come through brief statements from a "campaign spokesman" and with no explanation.

The Left used COVID to hide an already cognitively weak Joe Biden throughout the 2020 campaign and shield him from questions.

In Kamala's case, the left knows just how radical she is. She has identified as a radical in her own words.

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6) A Good Prescription For Your Progressive Friends
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