Daily News Brief

August 2, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Three Americans arrived on U.S. soil last night after being freed from Russia in the largest prisoner swap between the two sides since the end of the Cold War. The deal involved an exchange of twenty-four individuals from multiple countries and culminated more than two years of secret negotiations; U.S. President Joe Biden said that it showed “alliances make a difference.” He greeted journalists Evan Gershkovich of the Wall Street Journal and Alsu Kurmasheva of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan as they arrived in Maryland to reunite with their families. 

Talks for this prisoner swap deal began in early 2022 and hinged on German, Slovenian, and Turkish cooperation. They were almost scuppered by the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Russian custody in February; his release had originally been included in the plans. Several Russian dissidents were freed in yesterday’s swap, while Germany released Vadim Krasikov, who had killed a former Chechen militant in Berlin. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the “difficult” decision to carry out the swap has “saved lives.” (NYT, WSJ, AFP)

Analysis

“[The deal] rested not just on messages ferried by diplomats and spies, but years of secret interventions drawn from the ranks of prime-time TV hosts, Silicon Valley billionaires, and Russian oligarchs,” the Wall Street Journal’s Drew Hinshaw, Bojan Pancevski, Joe Parkinson, and Aruna Viswanatha write. 

“[The Russians] were obliged to give up twice as many people as they got in return,” CFR expert Stephen Sestanovich says in this YouTube Short. “They didn’t get all that much political benefit out of it. This is not the prelude to a new phase of Russian-American relations.”

Middle East and North Africa

President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday to move “now” on a cease-fire deal in Gaza, Biden said to reporters. Their call weighed rising tensions across the Middle East after the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran earlier this week. Biden pledged to support Israel amid threats of reprisal from Iran and its allied militias and stressed the importance of de-escalation across the region, the readout of his call said. (Bloomberg, Axios)

This YouTube Short with CFR expert Elliott Abrams explores what’s next for Israel after Haniyeh’s killing.

Middle East: Flight data show that some commercial airlines appear to be avoiding airspace above Mideast countries such as Lebanon, Iran, and Israel at a time of rising regional tensions. Over the past few days, carriers including Air India, Delta, Lufthansa, and United Airlines have suspended flights to Tel Aviv. (Reuters)

Pacific Rim

The two countries have increased their military cooperation amid concerns over Chinese actions in the Indo-Pacific. They follow similar exercises two days before between the Philippines and the United States. (AFP)

CFR’s Center for Preventive Action tracks territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

Japan: The benchmark stock index saw its biggest drop since 1987 today. The sell-off came as monetary policy diverges in Japan and the United States; the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady yesterday while Japan’s Central Bank raised them this week. (Nikkei)

South and Central Asia

While the social media platform X is banned in Pakistan, many people use virtual private network (VPN) services to access it. The chairman of the country’s telecommunications authority said it will review VPN services to see which are compliant with government rules. Pakistan banned X in February on national security grounds. (Bloomberg)

Bangladesh: Some government critics have called for nearly ten million overseas Bangladeshis to suspend remittances home to protest government policies in recent weeks. Bangladesh scrapped plans to change a hiring system for government jobs after nationwide demonstrations, but anger remains after more than two hundred people were killed in the protests. The European Union said Wednesday it was delaying talks with Bangladesh on a new economic cooperation deal. (Nikkei)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Two organizations that monitor global hunger said yesterday that parts of Sudan’s Darfur region were officially experiencing famine, with worsening conditions driven by the country’s civil war. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield called on warring parties to remove barriers to aid and attend cease-fire talks in Switzerland scheduled for August 14. (NYT, Sudan Tribune)

This episode of The President’s Inbox podcast discusses Sudan’s ongoing civil war.

Nigeria: Security forces killed at least nine people amid protests against economic hardship, Amnesty International said today. Nigeria’s national police chief said officers “aimed at ensuring peaceful conduct” but the events amount to “mass uprising and looting, not protest.” (AP)

For the Africa in Transition blog, CFR expert Ebenezer Obadare says bad governance, not dissent, poses the main threat to law and order in Nigeria.

Europe

Ukraine seeks to hold a second peace summit, likely in the Middle East, to demonstrate the “world’s unity” around the issue, said Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. A previous summit was held in Switzerland in June. (Bloomberg)

Americas

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said there is “overwhelming evidence” that Edmundo González Urrutia won Venezuela’s Sunday election, despite the fact that election authorities named President Nicolás Maduro the victor. Blinken called for Venezuelan parties “to begin discussions on a respectful, peaceful transition in accordance with Venezuelan electoral law.” (NYT)

Brazil: More than eleven thousand fire hot spots were detected in the Brazilian Amazon in July, the highest number for that month since 2005, government data showed. The number of hot spots is an early indicator of the state of fire destruction in the region, though they do not show the severity of the blazes. (Reuters)

U.S. Campaign 2024

A recently defected North Korean diplomat said the regime would seek to restart nuclear negotiations with the United States if former President Donald Trump wins the presidency. Trump’s previous presidency included both brinkmanship and diplomacy with North Korea. The country has spurned dialogue with the United States in recent years. (Reuters) 

Friday Editor’s Pick

The Washington Post details the recent surge in the number of Chinese migrants arriving in the United States in what has been the largest wave of illegal border crossings by Chinese immigrants in history.

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