Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio

Happy Thursday, and thanks for tuning back in!

Today’s Top 3: We examine the rise of communities without two-parent households, the developing gender divide in the US electorate, and the changing economic and political alliances on the world stage.

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1. The Rise of “Marriage Deserts”

Topline: What happens when entire communities consist of single-parent households? In recent years, Chris Bullivant and AEI’s Brad Wilcox have observed an increase in neighborhoods with persistently low marriage rates, which they call “marriage deserts.”

For example, in Laurelhurst, a neighborhood in Seattle, Washington, nearly 90% of families are headed by two parents, while South Park, a neighborhood a few miles south, has predominantly single-parent families.
This trend is not confined to Seattle: Pew Research Center finds the share of children living with an unmarried parent rose from 13% in 1968 to 32% by 2017.

Relationship Role Models: Bullivant and Wilcox explain that children growing up in stable, two-parent households better understand what it takes to sustain a marriage. In contrast, those without such examples, including whole communities, find marriage much more challenging to achieve and maintain. Thankfully, Bullivant and Wilcox identify several ways to provide other role models for people living in marriage deserts.

More on Supporting Marriages

2. Harris’s Big Problem: Male Voters

Topline: With Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee, AEI’s Daniel Cox highlights a significant political divide between men and women. A recent Quinnipiac poll reveals that 58% of male voters have an unfavorable view of Harris, while only 29% have a favorable view.

2016 Flashback: Cox forecasts that if this trend continues, voting preferences will feature a significant gender gap reminiscent of the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton secured 54% of female votes but only 41% of male votes.

Young Men Move Right: The Wall Street Journal also notes this growing gender divide and suggests Republicans could win the majority of young men’s votes for the first time in over two decades.

More on the Gender Divide

3. A Fragmented and Multipolar World

Topline: After the end of the Cold War, America achieved global dominance. However, AEI’s Zack Cooper notes the world is now becoming fragmented and multipolar, with emerging powers playing significant or competing roles in various regions. Global trade patterns show complex interdependencies among many nations.

State of Play: Cooper states, “Countries are searching for new security arrangements and sources of economic growth.” New power centers, such as the European Union and India, are developing and setting their own agendas.

“In short, the days when America could rally ‘the West’ to its side and assert a unified will globally are gone. In its place, the era of coalitions is upon us.”

—Zack Cooper and coauthors