Salaam John,
Today, I am excited to share with you the results of a pivotal study conducted by Emgage in partnership with the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU) and Change Research. This report, "Winning Muslim Votes: A Policy Priority Analysis in Swing States," provides an in-depth look at the issues that matter most to our community as we approach the 2024 elections.
The violence in Gaza and the pervasive issue of Islamophobia have emerged as the top concerns for Muslim voters in the swing states of Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. These findings are not just statistics—they are a call to action for our community and for the candidates seeking our support.
1. Muslim Support Shifts from Biden: Only 18% of Muslims who voted for Biden in 2020 planned to vote for him again in 2024 before he withdrew, reflecting a significant drop in support. Twenty-two percent of Muslim voters plan to vote for Trump, showing little change from 2020. The majority of Biden's 2020 supporters at the time of our polling were either leaning toward third-party candidates or were undecided.
Nearly a third of Muslim voters (30%) plan to either vote third party (27%) or write in (3%). This means that our votes must be earned by candidates from all parties. We are a crucial demographic that can influence the outcome of the upcoming elections, especially in these key swing states.
2. War in Gaza Dominates Muslim Concerns: The war in Gaza is by far the most critical issue for Muslim voters, with 61% of all Muslims surveyed naming it as a top policy priority. Gaza is the top issue among Muslims, regardless of age, gender, nativity, political affiliation, or race.
This is especially true among Muslim swing voters–those voters who plan to vote for a third party candidate, write in a candidate, are undecided, or do not plan to vote–with 71% choosing it as the top policy priority on which they will judge a candidate. Among Muslim voters who voted for Biden in 2020 and are no longer planning to vote for him in 2024, the top issue for them (67%) is Gaza, without a close second.
