Daily News Brief

July 31, 2024

Top of the Agenda

Hamas accused Israel of the overnight assassination of its political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, with the group’s military wing warning that his death will have major repercussions for the entire region and Iran vowing to retaliate. Israel did not claim responsibility for Haniyeh’s assassination, which came hours after it said it had struck a senior Hezbollah military leader in Beirut. Together, the events have fueled fears of further regional escalation between Israel and Iran-backed forces.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said today that Washington was not aware of or involved in the attack on Haniyeh, who was Hamas’s lead negotiator in ongoing talks with Israel over a potential cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza. Qatar, which had been playing a mediating role in those talks, called the killing a “heinous crime and dangerous escalation.” Haniyeh had been living in exile in Qatar but often traveled to his residence in Iran. “The best way to bring the temperature down everywhere is through the cease-fire in Gaza,” Blinken said in a televised interview today. (FT, NYT) 

Analysis

“Iranian officials are in utter shock over assassination of Haniyeh, sources say, because it also delivers a huge blow to Iran’s security reputation at a time it wants to project power in the region,” the New York Times’ Farnaz Fassihi posts. 

“Iran does not want an all-out war. But Iran’s April 13 missile strikes [on Israel] had two lessons, both surprising to Israel. One: an accumulation of Israeli strikes, each individually tolerable, can cross red lines. Two: Iran’s risk tolerance [is] less predictable than it once was,” the Economist’s Shashank Joshi posts.

“The Israelis have just taken a significant strike at the so-called axis of resistance hitting Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran in sequence. The U.S. has struck [Kata’ib Hezbollah] in Iraq. Cease-fire talks [are] in deep freeze. Regional war—something the Mideast has never seen—[is] not inevitable but odds have gone up,” the Carnegie Endowment’s Aaron David Miller posts.  

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Americas

The U.S.-based Carter Center had a technical mission of seventeen experts in Venezuela during its Sunday election and said yesterday that electoral authorities’ failure to announce disaggregated results by polling station is “a serious breach of electoral principles,” adding that the vote “cannot be considered democratic.” Venezuela’s opposition says it has evidence that it won the vote. As nationwide demonstrations surged against the government’s announcement of its own victory, Venezuela’s attorney general said more than seven hundred demonstrators have been arrested. (AP)

For the Pressure Points blog, CFR expert Elliott Abrams asks whether President Nicolás Maduro can be negotiated out of Venezuela.

U.S./Mexico: Following a labor practices complaint filed under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, the Mexican government committed to ensuring carmaker Volkswagen provides full back pay and benefits to some workers and better protects their freedom of association and collective bargaining. (U.S. Department of Labor, Reuters)

Pacific Rim

Today’s rate hike to 0.25 percent demonstrates the bank’s resurging confidence in Japan’s economic growth and concern about the weak value of the yen. Japan’s central bank had just increased rates in March for the first time since 2007. (Nikkei, NYT)

U.S./China/Russia: Beijing and Moscow criticized Washington’s claims to portions of the seabed floor at a meeting of the International Seabed Authority, saying they were not based in international law. The United States hasn’t ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs maritime zones around countries. Earlier this year, hundreds of former U.S. officials and military officers wrote to the U.S. Senate urging it to ratify the treaty. (Bloomberg, FT)  

South and Central Asia

The government announced it is banning the Jamaat-e-Islami party effective today following antigovernment protests across the country in recent weeks. The party called the decision “illegal, extrajudicial, and unconstitutional.” It had been essentially barred from running in elections since 2013 by a ruling that it countered Bangladesh’s secular constitution. (Dhaka Tribune, Reuters)

For the Asia Unbound blog, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick explains how Bangladesh’s protests expose deep-rooted political challenges. 

Sri Lanka: Ninety-two legislators out of the total 225 lawmakers in parliament said they are backing President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s reelection bid despite the country’s largest political party not officially endorsing him over disagreement about several of his policies. Polls open in September for the presidential seat. (The Hindu)

Middle East and North Africa

U.S. forces struck an area south of Baghdad yesterday where they detected fighters attempting to launch a drone attack, unnamed U.S. officials told ABC. The strike follows rocket launches last week toward an Iraqi air base housing U.S. forces. Iraq condemned yesterday’s attack, Washington’s first since February. The U.S. officials did not confirm any casualties. (ABC, Reuters)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Five people were killed in a drone attack on a military graduation ceremony in eastern Sudan today that was targeting army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, an army spokesperson said. The spokesperson blamed the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the Sudanese army’s opponent in the country’s ongoing civil war. The RSF did not immediately comment. (Sudan Tribune, BBC)

Angola/DRC/Rwanda: Angola’s presidency said that officials agreed in talks yesterday to a cease-fire in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) beginning August 4. The meeting included Congolese and Rwandan officials, but the statement did not make clear which groups were parties to the deal or how long a truce would last. DRC forces have been battling rebels in the area, and Rwanda has previously denied accusations that it backs the rebels. (Reuters) 

This timeline traces the conflict and legacy of intervention in the DRC. 

Europe

The first six months of 2024 was the first time for several member states where more electricity was generated from wind and solar sources combined than from fossil fuels, climate think tank Ember said. European Union (EU) power plants burned 24 percent less coal and 14 percent less natural gas during the first half of this year than in the same period last year. The EU has some of the world’s most ambitious renewable energy targets. (The Guardian)

Russia/Ukraine: Russia unleashed nearly ninety drones across Ukraine in an overnight attack, one of the largest waves of strikes since its 2022 invasion. Ukraine’s air defense forces said that more than thirty of the drones were shot down, and a Kyiv city official said none of the drones hit their targets. (FT)

This Expert Brief by CFR Fellow Thomas Graham explains what Russia’s President Vladimir Putin really wants in Ukraine. 

U.S. Campaign 2024

Paul Dans, previously a top advisor in former President Donald Trump’s administration, said yesterday he is stepping down as director of the Heritage Foundation’s policy initiative known as Project 2025 after it faced severe backlash from Democrats and Trump himself. While Trump has aimed to distance himself from the initiative in recent weeks, CNN tallied that at least 140 people who worked for the Trump administration had a role in the project. It includes pledges such as strict new immigration laws and reversing federal approval of an abortion pill. (CNN)

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