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Then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sign documents in Munich, Germany, February 5, 2011. Photo by Tobias Hase/DPA Pictures Alliance via Reuters
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New START is the last remaining major bilateral strategic arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. However, since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the agreement has essentially collapsed.
With the treaty officially expiring in February 2026 and an unprecedentedly hostile U.S.-Russia relationship, what—if anything—should replace New START? A new RAND paper tackles this question, outlining objectives the United States could seek to achieve through a new arrangement with Russia; ways it might realize those objectives; and how Russia's actions between now and 2026 could affect U.S. strategy.
The authors write that, overall, the future of arms control seems quite bleak. However, the United States has options it can pursue even under these adverse circumstances—and those options could advance core U.S. security interests.
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In 2020, fewer Black Americans believed the false claims of widespread election and voter fraud than their white counterparts did. According to Ray Block, Jr., RAND's inaugural Truth Decay chair, the Black community has “developed a powerful sixth sense for separating fact from fiction,” largely due to facing centuries of racism and disenfranchisement—and batting down endless so-called truths. During this election season, lessons can be learned from Black Americans' approach to the spread of false information. For starters, Block says, be skeptical: “If something sounds dubious, question it.” Read more »
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In 2023, Congress established a commission to examine and make recommendations with respect to the National Defense Strategy. RAND researchers supported the commission's analysis, which found that the United States faces the most challenging global environment with the most severe ramifications since the end of the Cold War. “The trends are getting worse, not better,” the report states. The findings also inform key recommendations for policymakers. For example, it is essential for the United States to spend more effectively and more efficiently to build the future force—not perpetuate the existing one. Read more »
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RAND Recommends
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- Last week, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order for state agencies to dismantle homeless encampments. RAND's Sarah Hunter, coauthor of a recent study on homelessness in Los Angeles, spoke to CNN about such policies: “You can’t really resolve the underlying issue, which is homelessness, by doing encampment resolutions,” she said.
- RAND's Hunter Stoll spoke to the New York Times about challenges facing Ukraine, even as F-16s provided by Western allies are set to deploy this summer: “The F-16s and their pilots will face stiff resistance from Russian air defenses, both on the ground and in the sky.”
- Japan and 18 Pacific island nations met at the Tokyo Summit last week. RAND's Naoko Aoki told Japan Times that, while Tokyo has been involved in the Pacific for a long time, it is now focused on strengthening the strategic aspects of regional cooperation.
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Events
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Thursday, August 8, 2024 – Online (More dates available at the link above.)
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