Daily News Brief

July 29, 2024

Top of the Agenda

The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon overnight after a rocket strike from Lebanon killed twelve people in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights the day before. The Golan Heights attack prompted a diplomatic push to prevent further escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah. Unnamed security sources told Reuters that the latest strike in southern Lebanon killed two Hezbollah fighters. The strike on the Golan Heights hit a soccer field where children were playing in what was the deadliest single attack on Israel since Hamas’s on October 7. 

Both the United States and Israel said Hezbollah was responsible for the Saturday strike on the soccer field, while Hezbollah denied responsibility. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stressed the importance of limiting escalation in a call today with Israeli President Isaac Herzog. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Hezbollah would “pay a heavy price” for the attack, an unnamed Israeli diplomatic source told Reuters that Israel believed its response “will not lead to an all-out war,” saying that was not in the country’s interest. (WaPo, Reuters)

Analysis

“Outside leaders and analysts tend to focus on Israel as the actor whose policies provoke or avoid war. But given Washington’s limited success in influencing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy in the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, those seeking a route to de-escalation must look more closely at Hezbollah’s calculations,” the Carnegie Middle East Center’s Mohanad Hage Ali writes for Foreign Affairs. 

“Negotiators worry that escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border could divert efforts from those talks [on a cease-fire deal in Gaza]. But it could also do the opposite: the desire to avoid war in Lebanon could incentivize Israel to go for a deal with Hamas,” the Economist writes.

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Americas

Venezuela’s electoral authority said that the Nicolás Maduro government won yesterday’s presidential election with 51.2 percent of votes against the opposition’s 44.2 percent, but the results were immediately called into question by several officials in the region. Opposition leader María Corina Machado said “we won and the whole world knows it.” She added the declared result was “impossible” given information her team had tracked about turnout; polls before the election widely predicted an opposition victory. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said Washington had “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people.” (NYT)

This YouTube Short with CFR expert Will Freeman unpacks why this election was so important for Venezuela.

Americas: The U.S. Treasury Department will work with finance ministries from Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, and Suriname to combat illegal financial flows that enable nature-related crimes, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said over the weekend. The targeted crimes include prohibited harvesting of trees, minerals, and wildlife. (Reuters)

Pacific Rim

Foreign ministers from the so-called Quad countries of the United States, Australia, India, and Japan said at a meeting today that they would cooperate to boost the security of undersea cables and extend the scope of a partnership on maritime awareness. Without directly mentioning China, they said they were “seriously concerned about the situation in the East and South China seas.” Today’s meeting came a day after Washington and Tokyo announced they will upgrade a U.S. military headquarters in Japan. (Nikkei) 

Australia: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese carried out his first major cabinet shake-up today after more than two years in office, replacing officials in portfolios including agriculture, cybersecurity, housing, and immigration. (Bloomberg)

South and Central Asia

While Azerbaijan has not reported its emissions in six years, nonprofit Global Witness said the volume of gas flared at the country’s oil and gas facilities last year was 10.5 percent higher than the most recent year of its emissions reporting in 2018. Flaring is the burning of gas that occurs during oil exploration and is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. The state oil company and UN climate conference (COP29) organizing group did not immediately comment. (FT)

Bangladesh: Authorities said yesterday that at least 194 people died in protests earlier this month that called for a change in the quota hiring system that kept government jobs out of reach for many citizens. They also announced that mobile internet was restored in the country after a more than weeklong outage. (EFE)

Middle East and North Africa

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s formal endorsement of Masoud Pezeshkian yesterday officially begins Pezeshkian’s presidential tenure ahead of a swearing-in ceremony tomorrow. Khamenei called for Pezeshkian to focus his foreign policy on investing in relations with neighboring countries, as well as African and Asian nations, rather than Western countries. Pezeskhian appointed moderate reformist Mohammad Reza Aref as his vice president. (RFE/RL, AP)

This CFR article looks at who calls the shots on different aspects of policy in Iran.

Sub-Saharan Africa

A coalition of rebel groups in northern Mali said Saturday that they killed dozens of government fighters and Russian mercenaries. While Mali’s army claimed the night before that only two soldiers had been killed, Telegram channels linked to the Russian military and mercenary groups cited dozens of deaths. It appeared to be one of the deadliest attacks on Russian personnel in Africa in recent years, the Wall Street Journal reported. (AP, WSJ) 

This Backgrounder by CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo explores Russia’s growing footprint in Africa.

Ethiopia: The country’s central bank began allowing the currency to float freely today in a move aimed at securing funds from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. (FT)

Europe

Attacks on long-distance telecom networks in five different parts of France early today had minimal impact on clients, a spokesperson for telecoms operator SFR said. A French official for digital affairs called the attacks “cowardly and irresponsible” and said work to restore service was underway. An unnamed police source said it was too early to tell whether the attacks were linked to Friday’s sabotage of French rail lines. (Reuters)

In this In Brief, CFR’s Jonathan Masters outlines the security challenge at the Paris games. 

China/Italy: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signed a three-year plan to increase industrial cooperation and collaboration on food safety during a visit to Beijing yesterday. She is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping today and has pledged to “relaunch” Italian relations with the Chinese after Italy pulled out of the Belt and Road initiative last year. (FT)

U.S. Campaign 2024

In a Washington Post op-ed today, U.S. President Joe Biden called for term limits for Supreme Court justices, a binding Supreme Court ethics code, and a constitutional amendment that says no former leader is immune from crimes they committed while in office. His call follows the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this month that former President Donald Trump has broad legal immunity for official actions taken while president. (WaPo, NPR) 

Trump pledged to shift regulations so they are friendlier to bitcoin at a Saturday conference focused on the cryptocurrency. He said that if the United States doesn’t embrace the technology, “China will.” Separately, the Financial Times reported Saturday that the Kamala Harris campaign had approached top cryptocurrency companies to “reset” relations between the Democratic Party and the sector, citing unnamed sources. The Harris campaign did not respond to requests for comment. (Reuters, FT)

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