Go all-in or play for next year? MLB’s trade deadline is approaching Tuesday, but the highly anticipated date is likely bringing an extra dose of confusion for clubs this year. 

Every season, some teams struggle with whether to commit additional resources toward a late-season push for the playoffs or pivot toward a longer-term organizational rebuild. But this year’s standings reveal a particularly muddled situation. Entering Sunday’s games, 21 of MLB’s 30 teams were within five games of a playoff spot, including three with losing records. As a result, many of those clubs are just one significant winning streak away from solidifying their chances of playing in October, and equally, one meaningful losing streak away from a very different situation.

Those numbers are similar to this point last season. But there is now the additional complication of what MLB’s near- and long-term local media situation is going to be, and adding to the complexity of how teams choose to budget their player spending both now and in the future. 

MLB is particularly entangled in the ongoing bankruptcy of regional sports network operator Diamond Sports Group, and commissioner Rob Manfred has often spoken of a desire to overhaul that critical revenue stream through a new, league-controlled offering.

“With just very few exceptions right now, almost everybody is on hold,” said Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently on KIRO-AM. “What you see when you pick up a paper, look at the standings, or flip on a site and check out where teams stand, almost everybody in baseball is within three games of a playoff spot, it seems.”

‘We are open to doing something that has the potential to be dynamic. [I] don’t know if that’s going to be available. Right now, it’s not, and this is as late as we’ve ever gone into a deadline where I can honestly say it’s not,” he said.

Subsequent to those comments, Dipoto and the Mariners have been particularly active as the deadline nears, making trades for outfielder Randy Arozarena and reliever Yimi García. Whether either player proves to be “dynamic” in Seattle is still unknown. Other trade movement began to emerge over the weekend, led in part by the Yankees’ deal with the Marlins to acquire former All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr.

There is some additional help coming on the TV front, though, as The Athletic reported that MLB and the MLB Players Association have agreed to direct some luxury-tax money toward teams that have lost local TV revenue. Those funds, termed a “media-disruption distribution,” are limited to $15 million per team, $75 million across the league, and will be available for just one year. 

“We believe this agreement should positively affect the player market by softening the impact of revenue declines, by increasing the number of clubs who have monies to spend, and by undermining the ability of clubs to weaponize recent developments in RSN markets,” the MLBPA wrote in the memo to players.

Player Demands

Meanwhile, this year’s trade deadline is also arriving with a heightened level of player advocacy for their futures. According to multiple reports, one such notable case involves White Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet (above), who does not want to pitch in the postseason if he is traded without first signing a long-term contract extension. 

The 25-year-old, the White Sox’ lone All-Star this year and Fangraphs’ major-league leader in pitching wins above replacement, has already experienced a massive increase in his workload this season, having thrown more than 111 innings compared to after posting fewer than 13 last year. Such a jump already places Crochet at a sharply elevated risk of serious elbow injury in the future, and with the demand, is clearly looking to solidify his financial future. Crochet already has undergone Tommy John surgery in 2022.

There have been some similar demands made in recent years by other pitchers on the trading block, but involving much more accomplished ones than Crochet, still in his first year as a starter. 

LeBron James (above) is back with Team USA for the first time since the London Games in 2012. He had handed off his duties as the country’s lead dog to the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant.

While this is likely the 39-year-old’s swan song with Team USA, he returns at a time when the country’s supremacy in men’s basketball is at its most precarious. The U.S. has won Olympic gold in men’s basketball in all but one year since professionals were allowed to play in 1992.

Team USA trotted out the Dream Team that year—but that crew faced fewer than 10 NBA players en route to the gold. This year, outside of Team USA, there are 39 current NBA players on Olympic rosters and several more who have some form of NBA experience. The wellspring of talent across the globe is a reason why the U.S. has failed to medal in the last two FIBA World Cups.

The U.S. has always valued the Olympics over FIBA, and this year’s team includes the best talent the country has to offer. The team should still win—FanDuel Sportsbook gives them -400 odds to take gold—and at the center of it all would be James, the country’s flag bearer and the face of basketball for the last two decades.

The King’s Impact

James’s reign atop the basketball world ushered in the era of player empowerment. His decision to move from the Cavaliers to Heat in 2010 inspired more players to make decisions they felt were best for them rather than their employers. His legacy off the court grew even further, establishing an empire at Nike while also helping agent Rich Paul build up Klutch Sports, one of the sports world’s most influential agencies. 

A gold medal would be a fitting cap to James’s career, but win or lose, the Games could turn into a passing of the torch to the next face of the sport. And in a generation moving more and more toward international stars, the impact of the next torch-bearer could simply be as the first non-American face.

The face of basketball has always been an American—from Bill Russell, to Magic Johnson and Larry Bird, to Michael Jordan, to Kobe Bryant, and now, to James—in large part because of the country’s dominance. But while Team USA has a few young stars in its core, these Olympics are a showcase of the rest of the world.

More International Talent

Other countries are littered with NBA superstars like Serbia’s Nikola Jokić, perhaps the best player in the league right now. It’s worth noting that the United States coasted to a win over Serbia 110-84 Sunday, as Kevin Durant led the way in scoring without missing a shot in the first half. James was excellent as well, contributing 21 points, seven rebounds and nine assists.

Greece boasts Giannis Antetokounmpo and Canada is led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Luka Doncic is one of the world’s best players, though Slovenia didn’t qualify for the Paris Olympics. As of now, none of them have made a compelling case to overthrow James. Jokić has won three of the last four NBA MVP awards, but he has not been embraced as the “guy” in basketball, in part because his personality does not lend itself to the attention. Antetokounmpo has the personality but has lacked the sustained dominance. 

However, perhaps the prime candidate to take The King’s crown, and a fitting one given the Olympics’ setting, is French phenom Victor Wembanyama. France has the third-best odds to win gold, behind the U.S. and Canada, and an upset of the U.S. or strong performance from the 19-year-old in a championship game could vault him straight to the top of the food chain.

Wembanyama taking over for James atop the basketball world at this point in the legend’s career would mirror James’s arrival in the NBA in 2003, the season following the retirement of Jordan. The Frenchman has the moxie, the potential for dominance, and the youth to take over for James once he decides to hang it up.

So while Team USA looks to keep Olympic gold from falling into another country’s hands, it should also be a test to see the reception of the superstars who line up across from them, and whether the basketball world is ready for an international player to be its next torch-bearer.

The Paris Games are expected to be the most heavily bet Olympics in U.S. history, but a few of the most popular sports are off the board in two of the 38 states (plus Washington, D.C.) with legalized betting. 

Louisiana and Massachusetts don’t allow betting on judged events, meaning betting operators can’t accept wagers on gymnastics, equestrian, breakdancing (official name is breaking), surfing, and BMX freestyle. 

“Regulators don’t like operating in a gray area—and these kinds of sports present a gray-area problem,” said Ronnie Jones, a former chairman of the Louisiana Gaming Control Board. “If we make a decision in Louisiana, I am sure the other 38 jurisdictions might go, ‘What are they thinking?’ But at the end of the day, the chairman and that gaming control board are responsible for what happens in that jurisdiction.”

The ban on judged sports in the two states shows the patchwork of regulations that have arisen since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act in 2018. The decision cleared states to offer legalized sports betting that Nevada had the exclusive lock on for decades. In turn, it has resulted in differing standards in each jurisdiction. 

Louisiana gambling regulations spell out that results must be “determined on the field of play and can be proven by a box score or statistical analysis” in order for bets to be taken in the state. The Massachusetts Gaming Commission voted in January 2023 “to exclude Olympic events [whose] outcome relies primarily on the assessment of a judge or panel of judges,” a spokesperson for the body told Front Office Sports.

But the two states have differing views on boxing. Louisiana allows Olympic boxing bets, while Massachusetts does not. 

And just because states allow betting on sports and events, that doesn’t necessarily mean operators like DraftKings and FanDuel will offer such bets. At best, bettors in states that allow betting in judged competition will be able to wager on only about 60% of the 329 medal events at the Paris Games. 

“The sports that are most popular are the ones that are truly American sports, like men’s and women’s basketball,” said Jay Kornegay, a longtime VP at Las Vegas’s SuperBook at Westgate. “Events like running and swimming events receive very, very little action.”