Daily News Brief

July 26, 2024

Top of the Agenda

France paused high-speed rail travel in several parts of the country today following arson attacks that Prime Minister Gabriel Attal called “coordinated and prepared acts of sabotage.” They came only hours before the start of the Olympic opening ceremony in Paris. Officials did not immediately issue a statement about the perpetrator. France has been on high security alert ahead of the games, which will play out against a backdrop of political uncertainty following snap parliamentary elections last month.

French authorities already thwarted four attempted attacks targeting the Games, the country’s interior minister said earlier this week. Some eight hundred thousand people are expected to be affected by the arson attacks, an official at France’s main railroad said, including those traveling by rail from the United Kingdom. French officials have warned that political activists could also seek to disrupt the games, and Moscow has attempted to sow the seeds of chaos in Paris through various disinformation campaigns. (FT, AFP, WaPo) 

Analysis

“France will need elite counterterrorism forces, intelligence assistance from Western partners, and maybe some old-fashioned luck to get through these Olympics without incident. The French know the threat vectors better than anyone, but help from friendly intelligence services—particularly from countries such as United States, with world-class signals intelligence capabilities—will be crucial to preventing attacks from succeeding,” King’s College’s Tore Hamming and the Soufan Center’s Colin P. Clarke write for Foreign Policy.

“Large sporting events, with their massive crowds and built-in global media attention, will always present a tempting, if presumably well-defended target,” Vox’s Joshua Keating writes. “Not surprisingly, security levels at the Games are high with a heavy police and military presence in Paris, as well as the controversial use of artificial intelligence technology for video surveillance.”

CFR’s Jonathan Masters explores France’s extraordinary Olympic security measures.

Americas

Venezuelans will vote Sunday in an election preceded by extensive international negotiations aimed at committing President Nicolás Maduro to competitive electoral conditions. Past votes under his ruling Socialist party have been marred by reports of its interference. Though Maduro has already broken some of his commitments in recent months to making the vote competitive, polls suggest the possibility of a sweeping opposition victory. (CNBC)

For the Pressure Points blog, CFR expert Elliott Abrams discusses whether Maduro could be negotiated out of power in Venezuela.

Mexico/U.S.: U.S. federal agents arrested Ismael Zambada, the leader of the Sinaloa cartel and one of the world’s most powerful drug lords, in a sting operation in El Paso, Texas. U.S. law enforcement officials arrested the son of imprisoned drug trafficker Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán alongside Zambada. (WSJ)

Pacific Rim

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will begin his trip tomorrow in Laos and will go on to Japan, Mongolia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam to try to shore up U.S. alliances and partnerships amid growing concerns of China’s global influence. On Sunday, Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will hold talks with top military officials in Japan. (AP, Nikkei)

Indonesia/China/U.S.: Indonesian government and industry officials are working to reduce Chinese ownership in the nickel sector to qualify for U.S. tax breaks, a senior official said. ” (FT)

South and Central Asia

Foreign ministers from the two countries agreed to work “with urgency” toward withdrawing troops from the Line of Actual Control, a stretch of their disputed border in the Himalayas that has been a flashpoint for conflict, the Indian government said Thursday. (AP)

Myanmar/Indonesia: Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi criticized Myanmar’s warring parties for refusing to agree to dialogue at a meeting yesterday of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Laos. ASEAN’s efforts to put forward a peace plan in Myanmar have thus far been unsuccessful, but foreign ministers recommitted yesterday to the plan. (Reuters, Straits Times) 

For Asia Unbound, CFR expert Josh Kurlantzick looks at the isolation of Myanmar’s junta.

Middle East and North Africa

No casualties were reported in the attack late Thursday, unnamed U.S. and Iraqi sources told Reuters, and U.S. sources said that the base itself had not been struck. The strikes followed a military summit in Washington earlier this week where the two countries discussed winding down the U.S. military mission in Iraq, which includes about 2,500 deployed troops (Reuters)

Palestinian territories: The prime ministers of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand said in a joint statement today that a cease-fire and hostage-release deal in the Gaza Strip is “needed desperately.” They called on Israel to “respond substantively” to an International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion that found Israeli occupation of certain Palestinian territories is illegal. Israel has called the ICJ ruling “blatantly one-sided.” (The Guardian)

Sub-Saharan Africa

UN-backed data says 755,000 people are experiencing catastrophic hunger in Sudan but Abubakr al-Bushra said it was “not a significant percentage compared to the total population” of around fifty million. He also rejected the idea that international humanitarian agencies could override army restrictions on delivering relief. An official declaration of famine could trigger UN Security Council orders that supersede restrictions on aid deliveries across the country’s borders. (Reuters)

CFR expert Michelle Gavin argues that humanitarian innovation in Sudan must ramp up.

South Africa: President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed judge Mandisa Maya to be the country’s first female chief justice of the Supreme Court. She is currently one of four women among the ten permanent judges on the court. (AFP)

Europe

The U.S. government overestimated the amount of military aid it has sent to Ukraine by $2 billion, a Government Accountability Office report said yesterday. The U.S. Foreign Assistance Act does not clearly define certain terms for calculating the value of aid, the report [PDF] said. (Kyiv Independent)

U.S. Campaign 2024

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris called for swift conclusion of a deal to bring home hostages and establish a cease-fire in Gaza in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday. She reiterated Washington’s “ironclad support” for Israel but voiced concern over the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, saying they should be able to exercise their right to “freedom, dignity, and self-determination.”

Netanyahu is also due to meet with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who separately called for Israel to end the war in Gaza “and get it done quickly” in an interview with Fox yesterday. (CNN, NYT)

Friday Editor’s Pick

Time profiles a twenty-one year old woman who fled the Taliban and will represent the Refugee Olympic Team at the Paris games in the event’s newest sport: breakdancing.

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