July 24, 2024
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Better off? Harris inherits Biden economy as consumer inflation still outpacing personal incomes, government data shows.
By Robert Romano
With President Joe Biden no longer on the Democratic Party ticket, attention is now shifting to the new presumptive Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. While she may indeed get a bump in the polls against former President Donald Trump taken in the aftermath of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, one thing that won’t change anytime soon is Harris will be inheriting the Biden economy and the policies that led to incipient inflation the past four years.
To summarize, consumer prices are up 18.76 percent since Feb. 2021, even with the rate of increase slowing down from its 9.1 percent annual peak in June 2022 to 3 percent today, according to data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
As a result, 30-year mortgage rates have spiked from about 2.7 percent when Biden and Harris entered office, to a peak of 7.8 percent in Oct. 2023 and still at a pretty high 6.77 percent today.
And, the growth of consumer credit peaked at 9.9 percent annualized in April 2022, but as households max out their credit cards and the economy has overheated, has slowed to 2 percent in May 2024 — as has the economy.
In the meantime, personal incomes including government transfer payments are only up 18.1 percent, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Meaning, American households are objectively worse off than they were four years ago financially speaking—and that will almost certainly continue to rub off on Harris just as it has Biden.
Namely, because Harris fully supported the spending torrent that occurred not just during Covid but also after, with almost $7 trillion printed, borrowed and spent into existence to counter the temporary economic lockdowns.
Because $2.2 trillion spent on the CARES Act in 2020 was not enough for the then-incoming Biden administration, no, even as 16 million out of the 25 million jobs temporarily lost during Covid were already recovered by Jan. 2021, Biden and Harris wanted an economic stimulus of their own to take “credit” for.
And so, not to be outdone, another $1.9 trillion for the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 was ordered up by Congress and signed into law by Biden.
But why stop there? In the so-called Inflation Reduction Act, yet another $891 billion of green energy subsidies and other spending were also signed into law by Biden, all supported by Harris.
In fact, on April 29 began a multi-state Economic Opportunity Tour in Atlanta, Ga. directed at shoring up black voters in swing states, with her pitch being “we are in the process of putting a lot of money in the streets of America…” No kidding.
Harris put forward the pitch including with the Inflation Reduction Act’s subsidies, “what we are doing with the inflation reduction act which is about at least a trillion dollars invested in the climate but a clean energy economy…”
Harris added, “[O]ne of the compelling reasons for me to start this tour now and to ask all the leaders here for help in getting the word out about what is available to entrepreneurs and small businesses is because we are in the process of putting a lot of money in the streets of America for this growth.”
Inflation has always been an albatross for incumbent presidents when they go back to the polls, particularly when it outpaces incomes for any considerable length of time. Just ask Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.
Under Nixon and Ford, from Jan. 1973 to Jan. 1977, consumer prices grew a whopping 37.4 percent, but personal income kept pace, growing 44.8 percent. The problem was that from March 1974 to May 1975, inflation was outpacing incomes.
Under Carter, overall consumer prices increased 45.8 percent, and incomes were up 55.4 percent, but from Aug. 1979 to Oct. 1980, inflation was growing faster than incomes.
And under the first Bush, consumer prices increased 17.2 percent while incomes barely outpaced inflation growing at 21.4 percent. However, from Oct. 1990 to Sept. 1991, inflation was outpacing incomes.
The consistent outcome is that these were all one-term presidents. Whenever inflation outpaces incomes for any significant length of time, it has harmed household budgets, and then it shows up at the polls when the incumbent party returns, even when there is a different candidate, as in the case of Ford coming in after Nixon for the 1976 election (even if Nixon hadn’t resigned he would have been term-limited).
And so, there will be a perhaps temporary boost for Harris as she hits the campaign trail, but once she is in play and we get past the convention, harsh economic realities will once again set in — and voters will only have one person to blame when they get to the polls. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
It would be Easy to Dismiss Harris as a Joke but Conservatives Need to Prepare – She isn't Fundraising like a Joke
By Bill Wilson
After Sunday’s announcement from President Joe Biden that he will not be seeking reelection after a debilitating election season that culminated in his dazed debate performance, all eyes have shifted toward his likely successor, Vice President Kamala Harris. While Biden endorsed her and she has amassed the majority of the delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination, the American people are wary.
Harris was copilot for four of the most debilitating years in our nation’s history, overseeing crippling inflation, a migrant crime crisis, and foreign policy missteps that have weakened our nation’s place in the world. Not to mention, Harris may have sat by as Vice President while our current President’s functionality declined to such a degree that he was forced to end his campaign, while continuing to allegedly run our country. It would be easy to write Harris off as an easy to beat candidate based on her record, but there is more to it.
Large financial support appears to be on Harris’ side. According to CBS News, her newly minted presidential campaign raked in over $100 million dollars between Sunday evening and Monday afternoon, a vast groundswell in just 24 hours or so. Fortune also reported that mega-donors George and Alex Soros were among the first to align with Harris after Biden’s announcement. As reported by the New York Post, major Wall Street financial players are circling around the Harris campaign with the possibility of strong endorsements as well. Deep-pocketed global interests have chosen where to align, and that is not something to dismiss no matter who the candidate is.
Harris may be tied to the failing Biden administration, suffer low approval ratings and be considered ineffective by a majority of Americans, but that does not mean she is a non-threat, especially with lucrative endorsements and the mainstream media singing her praises. How does Harris fair in the court of public opinion? As of now, not particularly well, but with the right resources directed toward swaying public opinion, that could shift.
Harris suffers a strong disapproval rating after four years in the public eye attached to the Biden administration’s failing agenda, and most of the public neither believes she can win nor believes that she would do a better job of handling key issues than former President Donald Trump. On five core issues – the border, crime, guns, inflation and foreign policy – Americans trust Trump over Harris by broad margins.
Harris, however, leads Trump on four issues which generally rank lower in importance to the public – abortion, healthcare, the environment and LGBTQ issues. A heavy focus on social justice issues, the abortion issue framed as a women’s rights issue, gender identity issues and the environment will likely form the thrust of her campaign. It will be incredibly difficult for Harris to go toe to toe with Trump on most of the issues that are top of mind to the American people, considering she was part of the Biden administration’s failures on the economy, the border, and foreign policy.
The public reaction to the prospect of a President Harris has not been particularly warm. According to a YouGov survey released Monday, the largest share of the public believes Harris would be “much less qualified” to be president compared to previous Democratic nominees for president. Twenty-eight percent of the public thinks Harris would be “much less qualified”, while nine percent say she would be “somewhat less qualified”. On the other side of the spectrum, 14 percent say Harris would be “much more qualified” compared to previous nominees, and 16 percent believe she would be “somewhat more qualified”. An additional 22 percent of Americans think she would be “about as qualified” as other nominees.
A YouGov poll conducted July 19th-21st also reveals Americans largely believe that in a head-to-head race Trump would definitely or probably beat Harris by a 32-point margin. Fifty-five percent of the public believes Trump would win in that matchup, compared to 23 percent who say Harris would win.
Americans trust Trump over Harris to handle immigration by 15 points, 45 percent to 30 percent, and inflation by 14 points, 43 percent to 29 percent. Americans also trust Trump over Harris on crime by twelve points, 41 percent to 29 percent. Americans also trust Trump over Harris on foreign policy by twelve points, 44 percent to 32 percent and on guns by six points, 40 percent to 34 percent.
However, the public trusts Harris over Trump by relatively wide margins on the environment and abortion. The public trusts Harris over Trump by eleven points on the environment, 41 percent to 30 percent, and by twelve points on abortion, 43 percent to 31 percent. On healthcare, the public narrowly trusts Harris over Trump by five points, 40 percent to 35 percent. These margins in Harris’ favor are relatively modest considering the Democratic Party has made abortion, the environment and healthcare large focal points for years now.
Harris also leads Trump on LGBTQ issues which consistently rank extremely low in priority for the general population. Harris leads Trump by 21 points on LGBTQ issues, 43 percent to 22 percent.
On issues that consistently rank as highly important to voters, Trump is ahead by double digits. Inflation, immigration, and foreign policy are all top issues for voters, and areas where Trump has a strong record to highlight and where the public consistently places faith in that record. Abortion, healthcare and the environment are issues that rank moderately important to the public in most polls, and these are issues where Trump’s support is weaker. Harris’ widest margin of support is on LGBTQ issues, which rank near the bottom in terms of importance according to most polls.
While Harris may be a poor Vice President and a poor candidate, she is being buoyed by deep-pocketed interests who want to see her installed in the Oval Office come January. Conservatives should focus on exposing the Biden administration’s vast failures with inflation, the border, and foreign policy. They should also develop adequate rebuttals to Harris and the left’s inevitably radical healthcare and environmental proposals. Conservatives would also do well to step back and allow Harris to run her campaign in circles focusing on fringe social issues. Harris is not a joke of a candidate – certainly not with the vast number of resources she is likely to draw in from deep-pocketed donors. But she is still very, very out of touch, and that blindness is her weakest spot.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2024/07/it-would-be-easy-to-dismiss-harris-as-a-joke-but-conservatives-need-to-prepare-she-isnt-fundraising-like-a-joke/