It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy.

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Photo by Kevin Mohatt/Reuters

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

3 BIG QUESTIONS AS HARRIS STEPS IN
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

There has been little time for in-depth reflection on the colossal events of the past 10 days. Here’s a brief reminder of what happened in that time:
* An assassination attempt ([link removed]) on former President Donald Trump
* Trump announced his new vice presidential candidate, ([link removed]) Ohio Sen. JD Vance, at the GOP convention
* A jury convicted powerful Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez on 16 bribery and corruption charges ([link removed])
* Trump gave the longest acceptance speech ([link removed]) in modern U.S. political history
* President Joe Biden tested positive for COVID ([link removed]) -19, as new variants surge ([link removed]) across the country. (I am writing now from quarantine after a positive test yesterday.)
* Biden withdrew ([link removed]) from the presidential race Kamala Harris quickly amassed enough endorsements ([link removed]) to replace Biden — if they hold


With this storm of news, comes a sky full of questions. We thought we’d tackle a few here, as we all adjust to a new 2024 landscape.

What is the process for the Democratic nomination now?

The Rules Committee for the Democratic convention will meet Wednesday and is expected to pass a nomination plan. Per a document obtained by our Laura Barrón-López ([link removed]) :
* Presidential candidates must gather electronic signatures of at least 300 Democratic delegates to the convention to be considered. (There are nearly 4,000 pledged delegates who can vote on the first ballot at the convention.)
* If there are multiple candidates, there will be a period of time to campaign to delegates
* The party will hold an electronic roll call vote. That exact process still needs to be spelled out. The first candidate to get a majority of delegates will be the nominee. If only one candidate qualifies, there will be just one vote
* Laura’s reporting is that this virtual roll call will be some time August 1-7
* In theory, a presidential ticket could be in place ahead of the Democratic convention, which is scheduled for Aug. 19-22

Will Harris be the Democratic nominee for president?

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Watch Harris’ remarks at her first presidential campaign rally in the player above.

That is likely, but not yet certain. This week, Harris secured the endorsements of enough delegates ([link removed]) to guarantee her a majority at the convention.

But those delegates are not bound by those endorsements, many of which were made by entire state delegations as a whole. There is nothing preventing them from voting for another nominee during the critical roll call vote, should they choose.

That said, there is not yet another viable candidate openly opposing Harris. And she has quickly racked up not just delegate support but endorsements from key Democratic leaders, with Biden at the top of that list. (One notable holdout, for now: former President Barack Obama. ([link removed]) )

Who would win in a Harris-Trump race?

We avoid predictions. In initial polling, including ours, Harris and Trump are essentially tied ([link removed]) . That looks a bit like the Biden-Trump race at first.
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Graphic by Jenna Cohen/PBS News
But the data and Republicans close to the Trump political action committee tell us Harris has potential advantages that Biden did not. She has room to grow her support, and she is seeing enthusiasm grow.

Look at how people saw her versus Trump in our poll out today, conducted with Marist College and NPR:
* Harris: 40% favorable, 44% unfavorable, 15% unsure.
* Trump: 43% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 8% unsure.

Trump has slightly more fans, but there’s more people who do not like him. Harris also has twice as many people undecided and waiting to decide how they see her. That is an opportunity for Democrats.

A data-enthusiast reminder that the margin of error for this poll was +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Another notable data point: 87 percent of Americans overall felt Biden dropping out was the right thing to do — a rare note of unity.

How did Biden’s decision to drop out affect people’s likelihood to vote?
* 46% of Democrats said it makes them *more* likely to vote
* Fewer — just 35% — of Republicans said the same

That could be the beginning of an enthusiasm gap that breaks for Democrats, who had seen voter excitement as among their problems with Biden.

The bottom line: We are in a strange moment.

Just 100 days until a major election, political and cultural sentiments of the country are in flux. Voting is fast approaching.

And yet, we are also still in the earliest days of a potential Harris-Trump matchup. Watch for marginal change that may matter significantly. And know that we will be watching closely with you.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: Kamala Harris is picking up pledged delegates and donations as the favorite to replace Joe Biden ([link removed]) on the Democratic ticket.
* One Big Question: Why are Democrats quickly lining up behind Harris? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss. ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: What is Kamala Harris' political record ([link removed]) , and how did she arrive at this pivotal moment?
* Perspectives: The News Hour spoke with two Democratic lawmakers: one who backs Harris for president ([link removed]) and another who’s calling for an open convention. ([link removed])

?WHO SHOULD BE HARRIS’ VP
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Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
By Laura Santhanam, @LauraSanthanam ([link removed])
Health Reporter & Coordinating Producer for Polling

As Harris surpasses the number of pledged delegates she’ll need in order to secure the Democratic nomination, attention has also turned to her running mate.

According to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, ([link removed]) one of Democrats’ top choices is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has already vowed to stay in her home state ([link removed]) .

A pick could happen as early as this week, sources told PBS News’ Laura Barrón-López ([link removed]) .

Many of the names floated so far are men and from battleground states.

“It’s as much about consolidating your base as it is finding swing voters,” said Democratic strategist Tory Gavito. With a little over 100 days before Election Day, Gavito said Harris’ campaign and Democrats “need to take all our energy and look outward,” aligning coalitions behind Harris and “[creating] a moral argument for swing voters to join us. The party that does that wins.”

Here’s what Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in our latest poll said about who they’d like to see on the ticket:
* 21 percent of likely voters said Whitmer should be VP.
* 21 percent backed Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg
* 17 percent chose Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro
* 13 percent supported Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, a former astronaut
* North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore received single-digit support among likely voters.

Want to know more about polling? Check out our coverage:
* How Our Polls Work: An inside look at how the PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll is conducted. ([link removed])
* A Reminder: What polling does — and doesn’t — tell us. ([link removed])

#POLITICSTRIVIA

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Watch the segment in the player above.

By Joshua Barajas, @Josh_Barrage ([link removed])
Senior Editor, Digital

The head of the U.S. Secret Service has now resigned. ([link removed])

Kimberly Cheatle’s departure follows her appearance before a House panel Monday to answer questions about the July 13 attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.

The congressional hearing was grueling. ([link removed]) Though Cheatle cited ongoing investigations into the shooting, lawmakers on both sides of aisles grew increasingly frustrated with her lack of specific answers to their questions.

Cheatle has been director of the agency since 2022. The Secret Service is an agency under the Department of Homeland Security, but that’s not always been the case.

Our question: Until 2003, the Secret Service was part of another U.S. government department. What was it?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: What is the total dollar amount raised for this year’s Republican National Convention?

The answer: $85 million. ([link removed]) This is a similar amount ([link removed]) raised by the Democrats’ host committee for its nominating convention in Chicago next month.

Congratulations to our winner: Brenda Radford!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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