From Marc Elias <[email protected]>
Subject The state of our democracy is in the numbers
Date July 21, 2024 11:00 AM
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I have spent a lot of time agonizing over the state of our nation’s democracy and trying to figure out what time to write for this month’s column. Like many of you, I want to believe that we are better than the worst we see in the media and that the political gaps between us are narrower than they seem.

Yet, I can’t quite convince myself that this is true.

The truth is that we have a dark and shameful history of discrimination in voting, we have too often embraced, rather than reject, hateful leaders. Violence has been an enduring presence in our political discourse. Despite our hopes, when it has come to democracy in America, the arc of the moral universe has not always bent towards justice.

In these moments, when I need to honestly assess the state of democracy, I find myself turning to the data. It may be an overstatement to say the numbers don’t lie, but they are typically more truthful than other measures. As famed football coach Bill Parcells’ is fond of saying: "You are what your record says you are."

We are now more than 18 months into the election cycle. There are little more than three months until Election Day. So, it feels like the right time to look at the numbers — examine the record — and see where we are as a democracy.

For now, let’s get started. And, if you enjoy this newsletter, consider upgrading to our premium membership ([link removed]) for $120/year to continue receiving exclusive content and help support Democracy Docket’s team of 15.

158 is the one big number. One way to think about the role of the courts in shaping our democracy is to simply ask how many voting and election lawsuits have been filed during this election cycle. The answer is 158. If that sounds large, it is and – of course – it is growing. At this pace it seems likely that we will cross 200 voting and election lawsuits before Election Day.
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78 and 79 are two critical numbers. It is widely assumed that most voting and election litigation is filed by groups seeking to improve access to voting. Historically that has been the case. However, for the first time, earlier this week the number of anti-voting lawsuits this election cycle outnumbered pro-voting cases 78 to 77. Though pro-voting cases have regained the lead by one, there is good reason to worry this is only a temporary reprieve. If you look at 2024 alone, anti-voting lawsuits outnumbered pro-voting cases two-to-one – 52 to 27. I have warned for some time that aconstellation ([link removed]) of well financed anti-voting groups are flooding the courts with lawsuits aimed at making it hard for citizens to vote and easier for Republicans to cheat after the election. The data bears that out.

70, 42 and 38 are three numbers to watch. Another way to think about the data is to focus on the issues being litigated rather than the sheer volume. Unlike in past years, the most frequent topic of litigation this election cycle is…

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