I'm sick

Sick of living in unprecedented times!

They say there are weeks where decades happen, and if that’s the case, this last month has made all of us eligible for AARP membership cards.

In-depth polling data on the state of the 2024 election doesn’t just fall out of a coconut tree. So we teamed up with our friends at Split Ticket to see how the electorate feels about Biden, Harris, and Trump — and if voters really envision a future of what can be, unburdened by what has been.

In a head-to-head race, we find Biden up by 1 point and Harris tied against Trump. In a six-way race with third-party candidates, Biden is down by 1 point. The results indicate a close race regardless of the Democratic nominee — while Democrats currently lead 48-45 against Republicans in a generic congressional ballot.

Interestingly, our survey also finds that Democrats who do not support a ceasefire in Gaza lose ground with voters, as do Republicans who promote election theft lies or support federal bans on abortion.

Additionally, we worked with the Split Ticket crew to conduct a survey of Black voters in battleground states to check the temperature of this key voting bloc in the Democratic base.

In that survey, we find that Black battleground voters are divided over whether Biden should drop out of the race, with a significant split across age demographics. Sixty-two percent of Black voters under 30 who live in battleground states say he should step aside, but only 24% of those over 65 say the same.

With Democrats still locked in a tense standoff over the future of the party, being a Democrat is starting to feel like being a member of House Targaryen. Except there are no dragons. And the Night King is definitely still on his way to enact Project 2025 and destroy the entire realm. And for some reason, Kid Rock is also there. Someone please get us out of this timeline.

Read the full head-to-head poll here, and read the full poll of Black battleground voters here.

Here are some other highlights from DFP this week:

We exist in the context…

Yep, we polled it.

A majority of voters agree that "you exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you," including 56% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans.

SCOTUS and it’s the same but we’re impeaching two of the justices so it's not

An impeachment attempt is sort of like getting a like from a suspicious-looking account on Hinge: sometimes it's legit and sometimes it isn’t. And if it’s coming from a MAGA Republican — you should steer clear either way.

Impeaching Donald Trump for inciting an insurrection on January 6? Legit. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s five attempts to impeach Joe Biden for her random grievance of the day? Not legit. Impeaching Supreme Court Justices Thomas and Alito for unchecked corruption? According to voters, that’s legit.

Last week, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced articles of impeachment against everyone’s least favorite Federalist Society lackeys. They’ve been taking more gifts than new parents at a baby shower — and because the Supreme Court doesn’t have an enforceable code of conduct, there have been no consequences for the Justices failing to disclose those gifts or recuse themselves from cases when they have a conflict of interest.

When voters are asked if Thomas should or should not be impeached from the Supreme Court, a majority of voters (57%), including 79% of Democrats, 57% of Independents, and 33% of Republicans, say that Thomas should be impeached. A slightly smaller majority of voters say the same for Alito (55%).

The poll also finds that 74% of voters, including majorities across party lines, support introducing term limits for Supreme Court justices so that they serve for a set period of time rather than for life.

Once again, AOC and crew are holding corrupt politicians and justices accountable for their fealty to billionaires and corporate interests. While we’re at it, can someone please hold Matt Gaetz accountable for whatever was going on with his eyebrows at the RNC this week? The stability of our nation truly depends on it.

Read the full survey here.

Rideshare drivers deserve fare pay

If you’re between the ages of 25-40, you have a love-hate relationship with Uber and Lyft. You remember back in the 2010s when rides were less than $10 and got you a cheap ride home from the bar at 2 in the morning. But now, a single ride home from the airport is over $100, they’re exploiting their workers, your back hurts, and everything seems like it sucks now.

Uber and Lyft drivers frequently lack basic labor rights, such as job security or sustainable wages after car-related costs. Meanwhile, the companies’ executives are increasing passenger fares, taking bigger cuts of these fares for themselves, and further decreasing driver pay to boost profits.

In a new Data for Progress poll, two-thirds of U.S. adults say that “we need better laws and protections to improve drivers’ pay and working conditions,” while only 20% of respondents say that drivers’ pay and working conditions are “sufficient as is.”

The polling also finds that 57% of gig workers say they would benefit from having a union with workers like themselves, while only 30% say they would not benefit.

There’s truly no group of people that deserve more respect than the ones who deliver our Thai food when we’re stoned at home on a Friday night or drive us home when it's 100 degrees and 80% humidity. So tip your drivers — a lot — and show solidarity with them against greedy CEOs and corporate rideshare execs.

Read the full poll here.

Data for Progress takes Netroots!

The Data for Progress team was proud to showcase our polling and research last week at Netroots Nation!

Our first panel, Building Community-First Climate Infrastructure, highlighted the ways community benefits plans and agreements can promote the just deployment of much-needed climate infrastructure. Many thanks to the Black Appalachian Coalition, ReImagine Appalachia, Jobs to Move America, and World Resources Institute for their insight and perspectives!

Together with the Drug Policy Alliance, Indivisible Project, National Employment Law Project, and the Office of PA Senator Nikil Saval, we also discussed how polling can go beyond the horserace to help win issue-based campaigns, from decriminalizing drugs to raising the minimum wage.

Many thanks to everyone who stopped by our panels and booth. See y'all next year! 👋

DFP In The News