Welcome to the July issue of the States & Stats Newsletter, highlighting the work of our award-winning political research team.

Greetings John,

 

Welcome to the July issue of the States & Stats Newsletter, highlighting the work of our award-winning political research team. 

 

Our research team works on projects like state legislative data and district targeting, understanding what motivates voters and volunteers down-ballot, and collecting, analyzing, and reporting on state-level data and trends. This research powers all of Sister District’s political strategy and programs.

 

In this month’s States & Stats:

  • Data Deep Dive – We present the findings from our latest study of down-ballot roll-off rates across state legislative chambers and districts in 2022

  • Special Announcements – Join us for a virtual Fireside Chat with author Ari Berman on August 7

 

I hope this newsletter is interesting and informative. And I welcome your feedback - let me know if there are particular topics or issues you’d like us to cover.
 

📊 Deep Dive

Sister District previously analyzed down-ballot roll-off in elections during the years 2012-2020 and found widespread evidence of roll-off, across 10 states and a variety of top-of-ticket races. We also showed that roll-off occurred much more often for Democratic state legislative candidates than for Republicans. 

Updating this analysis with results from the 2022 elections, we find again that roll-off occurs in the majority of cases—and importantly, the partisan skew at the chamber level persists. In nearly every case, Democratic candidates at the top of the ticket received more votes than Democratic state legislative candidates, while the exact opposite is true for Republican candidates. 

 

Here are some key takeaways from our new report:

  • At the chamber level: In 2022, down-ballot roll-off occurred frequently at the state chamber level.

    • State legislative Democrats in contested races experienced roll-off 83% of the time. Meanwhile, down-ballot Republicans in contested races experienced roll-off just 13% of the time. 

      • The units of analysis are state legislative chambers, not districts or candidates: In 83% of the chambers (or cases), we observed roll-off at the state chamber level for Democratic candidates.

    • We also saw some overages, where state legislative candidates collectively received more votes than their party mates at the top of the ticket. Among candidates in contested races, state legislative Republicans experienced this advantage in 87% of the chambers, compared to just 17% of chambers for state legislative Democrats. (This phenomenon can be indicative of “reverse coat-tails.”)

    • Given how successful state legislative Democrats were in the 2022 elections overall, it is remarkable that they still experienced higher rates of roll-off than Republicans.

 

  • At the district level: In 2022, state legislative roll-off occurred in the majority of districts in our sample.

    • Among districts with contested races, we observe Democratic roll-off in 68% of the districts, but we observe Republican roll-off in only 20% of them.

    • Average rates of roll-off within districts are also typically higher for Democrats than Republicans.

    • The average rates vary depending on the state and the type of race at the top of the ticket (governor vs. U.S. Senate), but overall, Democratic state legislative candidates appear to be negatively affected by roll-off more often than Republicans.


To learn more about this study, please see the report on our research page.
 

📝 Data Digest
  • I spoke to Robert Hubbell for Today’s Edition Newsletter about Sister District’s down-ballot roll-off research and encouraging Democrats to vote in every race, top to bottom of the ballot.

  • Sister District’s down-ballot roll-off survey was mentioned on Robert Reich’s podcast. They cited our finding that roll-off voters tend to get their news from online platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, and TikTok.

  • In the 6/24 edition of Chop Wood, Carry Water on Substack, I share the current state of reproductive rights and explore the collective actions necessary to protect abortion access and advance reproductive freedom. 

  • New laws take effect across the U.S. on July 1, 2024, highlighting the stark contrasts between state legislatures on issues like voting, education, and abortion access. Read more here.

 

Do you have any questions about this data digest? Have an interesting study or report you’d like us to highlight? Hit reply and let us know! 
 

📢 Special Announcements

Upcoming virtual events:

 

August 7, 2024 at 7 pm ET – Fireside Chat: A Conversation with Ari Berman

  • Join Sister District for a conversation with Ari Berman about his new book Minority Rule: The Right-Wing Attack on the Will of the People — And the Fight to Resist It.

  • The conversation will be moderated by Gaby Goldstein, Co-Founder of Sister District. There will be ample time for audience Q&A.

 

September 23, 2024 at 8 pm ET – Why States Matter: Voting Down-Ballot in 2024

  • Join Sister District + Daily Kos for a virtual event highlighting why voting down-ballot in 2024 is so critically important.

  • Special Guests:

    • Virginia State Sen. Danica Roem

    • Author and historian Heather Cox Richardson

    • Moderators: Gaby Goldstein, Sister District Co-Founder, and David Nir, Daily Kos Political Director
 

See you next month!

 

In solidarity,
Gaby


P.S. Your generosity fuels our work. Donate now to empower us to build progressive change.
 

Paid for by Sister District Action Network and not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee. Donations to Sister District Project, a 527 organization, are not tax deductible as charitable contributions for federal income tax purposes.