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THE RISE OF THE ‘UNION CURIOUS’  
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John S. Ahlquist, Jake Grumbach, and Thomas Kochan
July 16, 2024
Economic Policy Institute
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_ Support for unionization among America’s frontline workers _

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Two major shifts are occurring in U.S. workers’ attitudes toward
labor unions: the rise of workers who are interested in, but unsure
about, unions and an emerging generation gap between younger and
older workers. 

KEY FINDINGS

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Americans’ approval of unions and willingness to vote for them at
their workplaces have increased although union membership has
continued to drop in recent years. 

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Even more remarkable than the growth of union support has been
the decline of outright opposition to unions and the rise of
the “union curious.”

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A large generational divide that was not apparent even a few years
ago is emerging. Workers 30 and under are far more likely than older
workers to report both support for _and_ uncertainty about
unionization. 

Why this matters

The ranks of the “union curious” are large and growing. They
are a pivotal group that will help determine whether
the current increase in union interest will lead to sustained
gains for working people.

By some measures, support for labor unions among the U.S. public is at
its highest level in over half a century. In this report, we
investigate this trend. Looking at multiple surveys over nearly 50
years, we find that U.S. workers today are much less likely to oppose
union representation in their workplaces. Although there is evidence
of greater support for unionization among workers, the most remarkable
change is the much larger share of workers who report
being _unsure _about whether they would vote for union
representation. We call this trend “the rise of the ‘union
curious.’” To better understand what today’s workers think about
unions and where their ambivalence lies, we analyze the data from a
recent, original survey of workers in five low-wage industries.
Although many of the predictors of union support today mirror those
from the past, we uncover a large generational divide that was not
apparent even a few years ago. Workers 30 and under are far more
likely than older workers to report both support for and uncertainty
about unionization. The ranks of the “union curious”—workers who
are open to, but uncertain about, the possibility that unionization
can improve their lives—are large and growing. They are a pivotal
group that will help determine whether the current increase in union
interest results in sustained gains for working people. Whether the
ambivalent ultimately become unionists will depend on whether unions
are able to reach, educate, and organize these workers in traditional
and perhaps new ways.

INTRODUCTION

U.S. workers are increasingly interested in unions, and in response,
unions have stepped up their organizing activities. The number of
strikes and strike threats has also risen, with over 450,000 workers
striking in 2023. Several recent collective bargaining agreements
secured large wage increases in industries ranging from parcel
delivery to auto manufacturing, health care, and education, along with
breakthroughs on nonwage issues. Is this upsurge a temporary,
post-COVID-19 flash? And will it be smothered by employer resistance
or lead to a sustained process of rebuilding worker power?

To answer these questions, we draw on recent survey data that we
collected under the auspices of the Worker Empowerment Research
Network (WERN) in 2022, and we compare the results of this survey with
similar ones conducted recently and in prior decades. We first
investigate the U.S. public’s attitudes toward labor unions, putting
our new estimates in the context of longer-term trends in public
opinion. We find that outright opposition to unionization has
dramatically declined, with some suggestions that support may have
increased.

However, we also find that an increasingly large share of workers
are _uncertain_ in their attitudes about unions and unionization.
This ambivalence matters. For a union to organize, negotiate a
contract, and strike successfully, a large majority of the relevant
workplace must be actively supportive (McAlevey 2016). Most union
organizers won’t “go public” with their campaign until at least
70% of the relevant workforce has signed a union interest card. We
argue that these high levels of uncertainty—shown, for instance, in
many workers responding that they “don’t know” whether they
would vote for a union at their workplace—might arise from workers
being unsure about whether unions can deliver the gains in wages and
working conditions that they promise. These high rates of uncertainty
are also consistent with the idea that, as unionization has declined,
fewer and fewer workers have direct (or indirect, through family)
experience with how labor unions and collective bargaining work.
Ignoring the workers who express an ambivalent stance risks
overstating the strength of union support while also masking the
challenges _and opportunities_ in the organizing environment.

We further investigate the correlates of workers’ support for,
opposition to, and uncertainty about labor unions. We find that
younger workers are both more supportive _and_ more uncertain about
unions compared with older workers. This is an especially important
finding given young workers’ activism in recent organizing efforts
at firms such as Amazon and Starbucks and nonprofits such as
universities. In many areas of U.S. politics and policy, millennials
and members of Gen Z have distinct attitudes (Grumbach and Hill 2022).
These generations appear to be especially active in social movements
and are turning out to vote at higher rates than members of earlier
generations did in their 20s and 30s (though still at low rates
overall). As we detail later in this report, harnessing the energy of
young workers is a key challenge and opportunity for the labor
movement.

UNION APPROVAL

To put the data from our current survey in context, it is helpful to
review prior polls that asked workers about their views of unions.1
[[link removed]] For
over 60 years, Gallup regularly asked about “approval” of labor
unions, the longest such consistent series available. FIGURE
A displays the percentage of respondents reporting that they approve
of unions as well as those who don’t have an opinion in these
historical Gallup polls (the remainder disapproved). For reference, we
also include a line that shows the long-term decline in union
density.2
[[link removed]] 

For nearly the entire time Gallup has asked this question, clear
majorities declared their approval of labor unions. More noteworthy is
the marked and sustained increase in union approval since 2010, with
support in 2022 higher than at any time since 1965. Figure A also
displays another important but understudied quantity: the percentage
of respondents who were _unsure _about whether they approve or
disapprove of labor unions, an issue we will take up in some detail.
In the Gallup data, this proportion hovers around 10%, but it declines
to about 5% in recent surveys, perhaps reflecting increased union
activism and a corresponding uptick in media coverage of labor and
labor issues in recent years.

FIGURE A

Generic union approval has been rising, while union density continues
to declinePercentage of responses to the Gallup survey question ‘Do
you approve or disapprove of labor unions?’

SOURCES: Gallup 2024
[[link removed]] and OECD/AIAS
2021 [[link removed]].

Encouraging as these estimates are, there are some concerns with the
Gallup approach. The headline number masks important differences in
union approval among various groups. For example, the Gallup numbers
include both union members and nonunion members. Union members are
(unsurprisingly) much more favorable to unions than nonmembers;
Democrats and independents are more favorable than Republicans. But
more importantly, as Figure A shows, union _approval _is
disconnected from union _membership_. Indeed, the sustained increase
in union approval since 2010 contrasts with the decrease in union
membership rates from 12.4% in 2008 to 10.1% in 2022. It is,
therefore, difficult to know exactly how to interpret trends in union
approval.

Recent events suggest that workers supporting unions are putting their
views into action. The National Labor Relations Board has certified
and supervised more union organizing campaign elections each year
since 2019, and the percentage of unions winning these elections
increased each year, reaching 76% in 2022. The Cornell ILR Labor
Tracker reported that the number of strikes and number of workers
involved in strikes increased in each of the past three years
(Ritchie, Kallas, and Iyer 2023). Some observers described the
collectively bargained wage increases and benefit improvements as the
“hot labor summer” (Dean 2023) and the year of the “great
reset” (Greenhouse 2023). Yet, despite all this organizing activity
and higher settlements in collective bargaining, the percentage of
workers organized into unions has not increased. We will return to
this important observation as we discuss the key lessons we take away
from these developments to date.

WOULD YOU VOTE FOR A UNION?

If union approval is hard to interpret, are there other ways we could
learn about whether nonunion workers want to be in a union? The Gallup
question asks about unions _in general_. We turn to a regularly used
survey question that instead asks workers whether they would vote for
union representation _at their own workplace_. This is a helpful way
to ask about union _support_ rather than mere abstract approval,
especially when we are concerned with building worker voice.

We found six prior national surveys that asked whether workers would
vote for union representation at their jobs.3
[[link removed]] The
selected surveys include all those for which we could find the data
for calculating the proportion of employed nonunion workers answering
“yes,” “no,” or some variation of “don’t know.” The
first dates back to the Quality of Employment (QoE) Survey in 1977
(Kochan 1979; Quinn and Staines 1977). Similar versions of the union
vote question were asked of different populations using different
survey modes in 1994 (Freeman and Rogers 2006), twice in 2018
(Hertel-Fernandez 2020; Hertel-Fernandez, Kimball, and Kochan 2020),
2022 (Ahlquist, Grumbach, and Thai 2023), and 2023 (Diaz-Linhart et
al. 2023). TABLE 1 summarizes important differences across these
surveys, including the survey mode and target population.

TABLE 1

Surveys asking about whether a worker will vote for union
representation

Survey
Year
Mode
Survey Partner
Target population
N=

QoE
1977
In-person
Michigan SRC
Employed U.S. adult workers
1,071

Freeman/ Rogers
1994
Phone
Princeton SRA
U.S. adults
1,715

Hertel-Fernandez
2018
Internet panel
YouGov
Employed U.S. adult workers
1,030

WOS
2018
Internet panel with phone follow-up
NORC/AmeriSpeaks
Employed U.S. adult nonexecutive workers
3,591

WERN
2022
Internet panel
Qualtrics
Employed U.S. adult nonexecutive workers in five industries
2,012

Diaz-Linhart et al.
2023
Online labor market
Prolific
Employed U.S. adult nonexecutive workers
521

NOTE: “N=” refers to valid responses from nonunion respondents,
weighted where applicable.

FIGURE B displays the estimated level of union support across these
surveys. In contrast to past research, which tends to ignore the
“don’t know” (DK) responses, we explicitly call them out here.

FIGURE B

Workers have become less resistant to unions at their workplaces over
timeProportion of employed nonunion workers' responses to the survey
question ‘If an election were held today to decide whether you
should be represented by a union, would you vote for or against the
union?’

NOTE: Totals may not sum to 1 due to rounding. 

Figure B uncovers three important facts. First, across surveys,
willingness to vote for a union is substantially lower than “union
approval” as reported in the Gallup data. It appears that Americans
approve of unions in general, but when nonunion workers are asked
whether they personally want unionization at their workplace, there is
more uncertainty and weaker support. 

Second, regardless of differences in the survey mode or target
population, Figure B suggests that there has been large and sustained
erosion of _opposition_ to unionization among nonunion workers. In
the last few years, outright opposition to unionization is a
distinctly minority position in contrast to the late 1970s, when large
majorities of the nonunionized stated that they would not vote for a
union. In the late 1970s, opponents outnumbered supporters by nearly
2.4 to 1 if one were to look only at those expressing an opinion for
or against unionization. In the 2022 Worker Empowerment Research
Network survey, we see 1.4 union supporters for every worker
opposed—a remarkable change in support.

Third, and most intriguing, the data also suggest that much of the
opposition to unionization may have been replaced by the rise of the
“union curious”—those expressing _uncertainty or
ambivalence_—as opposed to an increase in outright support. In three
of the four most recent surveys, “don’t know” is the most
frequently chosen response by a substantial margin. We investigate
this trend in further detail in the next section.

WORKERS’ UNCERTAINTY ABOUT UNIONS

How should we interpret this increase in uncertainty about whether or
not to unionize?

One possibility is respondent reluctance to answer definitively on a
sensitive topic. Respondents may choose “don’t know” when in
fact they lean in a particular direction.4
[[link removed]] The
evidence suggests that this is _not_ the case with the “union
curious” in these surveys. The 2017 Worker Voice Survey (Kochan et
al. 2019) asked the union vote question _without _allowing for a
“DK” option. In that survey only 3% of respondents refused to
answer, suggesting that reluctance is not a major concern. When
respondents were forced to choose, the Worker Voice Survey found a
roughly even balance between union supporters and opponents (48%
versus 52%).

Two of the surveys in Table 1 asked “DK” respondents for more
information to better understand their responses. In both cases, most
“DK” respondents are, in fact, legitimately uncertain about what
unions do or what effects they might have on their jobs. Specifically,
in the 2022 WERN survey, we probed a subset of the respondents who
answered “don’t know” to the union vote question, asking whether
they “leaned” toward voting for or against unionization. Over 80%
of those we asked said they were actually uncertain. Similarly,
Diaz-Linhart et al. (2023) asked those responding “don’t know”
to provide a reason for that response and found that 70% of the
“DK” responders indicated they didn’t know enough about unions
or how they might affect their job to make a definitive “yes” or
“no” response.

In a third survey
[[link removed]],
which is not included in Table 1, the think tank American Compass
asked U.S. workers if they would vote for a union in their workplace
and allowed respondents to answer “lean toward” or “lean
against” unionization. They also find that opposition to
unionization is the minority position and that “undecided” is the
modal response among lower income workers.5
[[link removed]] Thus
the “union curious” appear to be a group that holds potential for
building worker voice if they can be persuaded that unions can
effectively address their concerns.

The apparent rise of the “union curious” poses important questions
as we seek to understand the recent wave of union activism and the
prospects for union renewal. But we need to be cautious about
overstating the case. Recent national surveys tend to be administered
over the internet rather than by telephone or in person. There is some
suggestive evidence that survey mode may affect the frequency of
“don’t know” responses (Ansolabehere and Schaffner 2014; De
Leeuw and Hox 2014). It is possible that a visible response option for
“don’t know” in an online survey produces greater rates of
“don’t know” responses than when respondents are interacting
with a survey administrator by telephone or in person. However, the
2018 Worker Organization Study (WOS) was administered by the National
Opinion Research Center (NORC), which goes to greater lengths to track
down and interview respondents who are online less often. The WOS
survey nevertheless found “union curious” respondents at about the
same rate as the other recent surveys using purely web-based samples.
The prevalence of the “DK” responses in the recent surveys is
underappreciated and sufficiently important to warrant further
exploration.

WHO ARE THE UNION SUPPORTERS AND THE ‘UNION CURIOUS’? EVIDENCE
FROM THE 2022 WERN WORKERS’ SURVEY

Who are the union supporters? How do they differ from the “union
curious” and those opposed to unions in their workplaces? We turn to
an original survey of U.S. workers that we fielded in 2022 under the
auspices of the Worker Empowerment Research Network (WERN). This
survey is noteworthy because it concentrates on frontline workers in
select industries in the post-COVID-19 period, whereas nearly all
other similar recent surveys use broad national samples. Our survey
sample allows us to drill down into five specific industries known for
low wages, scheduling instability, and intense recent unionization
drives: health care, hospitality, retail, telecommunications, and
warehousing.6
[[link removed]] The
WERN sample also includes a variety of modules on job satisfaction,
voice at work, and major problems at work (wage theft, harassment,
scheduling instability, etc.). The WERN survey is, therefore,
particularly well suited to understanding the “union curious.”

As a first cut, we look at responses to the union vote question across
several potentially relevant demographic groups to see whether union
supporters and the “union curious” tend to come from particular
industries or parts of the population.

Our first key finding in the Worker Empowerment Research Network
sample echoes similar recent surveys (Diaz-Linhart et al. 2023; Kochan
et al. 2019): Younger workers are significantly more pro-unionization
than older workers.7
[[link removed]] FIGURE
C makes this plain. In the WERN sample, over 40% of nonunion workers
30 and under are outright supporters of unionization, whereas only 32%
of older nonunion workers hold the same view; union opposition is much
stronger among older workers than among younger ones. But the “union
curious”—the “DK” responders—comprise the largest share of
both age groups. Over 45% of younger workers are “union curious.”
Taken together, the WERN data show that younger workers are less
opposed to unionization than older workers, with this age gap
explained by higher levels of union support _and _more “union
curiosity” among younger workers. This presents an interesting
challenge for worker advocates: Younger workers are likely to be the
most receptive to pro-union messages, but for unionization drives to
succeed, both younger and older workers will need to be engaged.
Younger workers will need to play important roles in persuading their
older co-workers. 

FIGURE C

Among the nonunionized, younger workers are more supportive of
unionization at their workplaces than those over 30Proportion by age
group of responses to the survey question ‘If a vote were held today
on having a union represent you, would you support the union?’

FIGURE D builds on the importance of age, again looking at nonunion
workers in the WERN sample. The figure displays the proportions of
union supporters and the “union curious” by gender, industry, and
race, comparing younger (blue dots) with older (open diamonds) workers
within each demographic subgroup. Across all these demographic
subgroups, union support exceeds opposition. The _age gap_ in union
support (distance between the dot and diamond) is largest in
telecommunications and health care. Looking at different racial
groups, we see relatively high levels of union support among Black
workers, whereas we see larger age _gaps_ in union support among
white workers.

But the “union curious” are a critical group. Among women of both
age groups, the “union curious” are the largest group. They are an
outright majority of young workers in retail and hospitality. The
age _gap_ in union uncertainty is largest among warehousing workers
and Hispanic workers.

FIGURE D

Union support and uncertainty among younger and older
workersProportion by gender, industry, and race

We further explored the determinants of support for unionization using
the tools of regression analysis.8
[[link removed]] In
this way, we can describe how different variables relate to the
likelihood that a worker will support unionization (or oppose it or
report uncertainty), holding other variables fixed. Regression models
can be complicated, so we present graphical displays that describe how
key variables relate to responses on the union-vote survey question in
our survey sample. The shaded regions present a measure of our
statistical uncertainty (95% confidence intervals). 

First, we confirm a common, repeated finding using our data: Bad jobs
increase the likelihood of voting for the union and reduce both
uncertainty and resistance to unionization. In our case, we asked
respondents whether they had experienced a series of problems on the
job in the last six months, ranging from underpayment to schedule
instability to harassment. We count the number of problems a worker
reported experiencing as a summary indicator. The left column
of FIGURE E displays the relationships between problems at work and
the likelihood of supporting, opposing, or being uncertain about
unionization. A worker who experienced four different problems at work
has _double_ the expected probability of voting for a union compared
with a worker who reported no major problems at work (60% versus 30%),
holding other attributes fixed. A worker reporting four problems at
work also had about 10 percentage points lower probability of being
uncertain about unionization and was about one-third as likely to
oppose unionization as a worker reporting no recent workplace
problems. All of these relationships are quite large relative to
statistical uncertainty.

FIGURE E

Nonunion workers with poor job quality and lack of voice are more
likely to support unionizationHow problems at work and voice gap
relate to support for workplace unionization among nonunion workers

Second, a lack of voice on the job also increases support for
unionization and reduces _both_ uncertainty and opposition. To
establish this, we asked respondents whether they had “the right
amount,” “some,” or “no” say over a series of work
conditions, including pay, benefits, scheduling, promotions, and
safety. We constructed an index across all these domains to summarize
the extent to which workers lacked the desired amount of voice on the
job, something we call the “voice gap index.” The right column of
Figure E displays the relationship between the voice gap and support
for unionization. A worker with a job where she lacks voice across all
domains is nearly 20 percentage points more likely to support
unionization and 13 percentage points less likely to oppose it than a
worker who reports “the right amount” of voice. Uncertainty about
unionization also declines as the voice gap increases.

Finally, we asked workers in our sample about their beliefs about
unions and_ expectations_ about how unionization might change their
working conditions. By examining these responses, we get a sense of
what drives the “union curious” and where more information and
experience with unions might tip uncertainty into support.

We asked respondents how much they agreed or disagreed with a variety
of statements about union _in general_. FIGURE F displays the
summary of the outcomes. Reassuringly, large majorities “agreed”
or “strongly agreed” that unions help low-paid workers, improve
corporate social responsibility (CSR), and provide more voice at work.
Nevertheless, about a quarter of respondents said they were
“neutral” in their beliefs on these topics, something we take to
be connected to uncertainty or ambivalence. Smaller majorities agreed
that unions give “people like me a voice in how laws and policies
are made” and that unions “protect incompetent workers,” with
roughly a third of respondents “neutral” on those topics. More
concerning for unions, large pluralities are “neutral” about
whether unions reduce racial discrimination or are “controlled by
the Democratic party,” pointing to important ways that broader
social conflict and polarization connect with uncertainty about
unions.

FIGURE F

Majorities of nonunion workers have positive views of unions in
general, but there are areas of substantial ambivalenceOpinions about
labor unions among nonunion workers

We also asked workers to report how they think unionization at their
own workplace would affect working conditions and relationships. We
display responses in FIGURE G. Consistent with past work and the
responses above, majorities of workers expect that unionization would
improve wages and benefits “a little” or “a lot.” But around
the subject of job security, training, and workplace safety, large
proportions of workers (between 41% and 51%) state that they don’t
think unionization would have _any effect at all_. Similarly, large
majorities or pluralities don’t think unionization would have any
effect on workplace relationships, _including relationships with
co-workers_. All of this suggests that there is a large population of
workers with a limited understanding of what successful unions require
and what they can deliver.

FIGURE G

Majorities of nonunion workers expect that unionization would improve
wages, benefits, and opportunities but have minimal effects on
workplace relationshipsPerceived effect of unionization on workplace
conditions and relationships

ORGANIZING THE ‘UNION CURIOUS’

The central conclusion and the implication we draw from the increase
in survey takers’ responses of “don’t know” to questions about
how they would vote in a union election is this—unions have a major
educational challenge to overcome if the current period will be one
that produces a sustained revival and rebuilding of union density in
America. Moreover, the challenge and the opportunity are greatest
among young, lower-income workers. These are workers who are both more
likely to vote “yes” and to vote “don’t know” or
“unsure” in recent surveys.

But pursuing this targeted opportunity will require investment of
substantially more resources than unions currently expend on
organizing. This is not a new critique; others have stressed this
point. Given the rise of the “union curious,” a clear need exists
for information and education about what unions do and how to form
them; this information is likely to be especially important for
younger workers, even those who express general approval for unions.

It also may require new approaches to organizing and recruiting union
members. The difficulties of gaining 50% majorities and then
negotiating first contracts when faced with fierce and determined
employer opposition cannot be overstated. The model of organizing one
location at a time (e.g., one retail establishment of a giant firm;
one plant of a large, multisite manufacturing firm; one warehouse of a
giant distribution firm) is an equally daunting and, to date, largely
unachievable task. 

A number of alternative approaches to organizing have been suggested,
and some are now underway. Agreements with companies to be neutral
(often called neutrality agreements) in organizing campaigns, such as
the one recently agreed to by Microsoft, are major steps forward. So
too is the recent announcement by Starbucks and Starbucks Workers
United that they have reached a framework agreement for negotiating
contracts covering all the stores in the company that have organized
or will organize. Labor advocates in California, New York, Minnesota,
and several cities have been successful in establishing industrywide
labor standards boards for fast food, health care, and nail salons and
have combined these with efforts to recruit workers at the
establishment level. The United Auto Workers is attempting to organize
the full set of nonunion automakers. Workers at Alphabet have
organized a union that speaks out on issues of concern to workers in
the company without seeking the majority status needed to gain rights
to collective bargaining.

Absent more alternative organizing strategies like these or others, it
is difficult to see how the current upsurge in worker support for and
curiosity about unions will be enough to generate a sustained process
of rebuilding union density and membership across the economy. And
there are substantial numbers of “union curious” workers awaiting
more information, contact, and innovative organizing efforts that can
address the pent-up demand for a greater voice at work. Today, the
pressing question facing the labor movement and labor scholars is
this—how can the curious be turned into actual union members?

_JOHN S. AHLQUIST is professor of political economy at UC San
Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. _

_JACOB M. GRUMBACH is associate professor at the Goldman School of
Public Policy at UC Berkeley. _

_THOMAS A. KOCHAN is the George Maverick Bunker Professor Emeritus at
the MIT Sloan School of Management and a faculty member in the MIT
Institute for Work and Employment Research. _

* Union growth
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* union organizing
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* union membership
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*
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