From AEI DataPoints <[email protected]>
Subject Big Shift: Young Men Move Right
Date July 18, 2024 11:00 AM
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Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.

Edited by Sutton Houser and James Desio
Happy Thursday, and welcome back!

Today’s Top 3: We look at new polling on young men shifting toward the GOP, the decline of US farms and farmland, and rising home prices in Midwestern and Northeastern cities.

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1. Big Shift: Dems Lose Young Men
Topline: Since the 2016 presidential election, AEI’s Daniel Cox notes <[link removed]> a
significant trend: Young men are increasingly leaving the Democratic Party. Young men’s identification as Democrat declined from 51% in 2016 to 39% in 2023.

Biden Backlash? Cox highlights President Joe Biden’s unpopularity as a key reason Democrats
aren’t connecting with young voters. A New York Times/Siena poll shows only 23% of young registered voters view Biden favorably, with 84% believing he is too old to govern effectively.

Zoom Out: While Cox doesn’t foresee a long-term generational realignment, there are concerning signs for Democrats. A recent survey <[link removed]> shows that 47% of Americans identify as Republican, and 46% identify as Democrat. Additionally, an ABC News/Washington Post poll <[link removed]> found Americans increasingly say Democrats are out of touch.






“If the Republican Party remains competitive with young voters it’s difficult to see any Democrat prevailing in
November, but the political and cultural ramifications will stretch far beyond a single election.” 
—Daniel Cox
2. Fewer Farms but Higher Output
Topline: Should the declining number of US farms and amount of farmland over the past four decades cause concern? AEI’s Barry Goodwin and Vincent Smith caution <[link removed]> against undue alarm, as the steady increase in agricultural output shows the positive effects of “science-based
innovations in technology and management and economies of scale in farming.”

Bigger Farms: Farmland is shifting from smaller to larger operations. From 2017 to 2022, the number of US farms fell by 7%, but the average farm size grew by 5% to 463 acres.
3. Hot Housing Prices: Midwest & Northeast
Topline: AEI’s Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter find <[link removed]> that Midwestern and Northeastern metros with historically moderate home price appreciation (HPA) growth are now experiencing the fastest appreciation rates. By comparison, many Southern and Western metros are now seeing low or negative year-over-year HPA growth since their 2022 peak levels.



- Austin, Texas, has seen a 10% overall decrease in HPA since its 2022 peak.


TL;DR: Despite these regional differences, the housing
market remains hot, with the 60 largest US metros still experiencing a seller’s market.






“When the federal government says it will make housing more affordable, it eases loan standards (raising credit risk) and loosens
monetary policy. In a seller’s market (tight supply), these policies get capitalized into higher home prices.” 
—Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter
But Wait, There's More . . .
Cost of Illegal Immigration <[link removed]>
Divorced Men for Trump <[link removed]>
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