Laura Curtis of Bloomberg reports that the study puts estimated migration significantly higher than projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) earlier this year. The estimate includes people who have entered the country legally and those who crossed the border without authorization but received a court date, among other cases.
"My estimates suggest that around one-fifth of the easing of labor market tightness in 2023 can be attributed to the spike in immigration," economist Evgeniya Duzhak wrote in the paper.
Many economists believe this easing effect has helped counter inflation, Paul Kiernan and Anthony DeBarros report in The Wall Street Journal — and believe that immigration restrictions under a second Trump presidency would make inflation worse.
By countering post-pandemic labor shortages, high rates of immigration might have limited inflation by up to half a percentage point, economist Matthew Luzzetti said.
In another new report, from the Migration Policy Institute, researchers estimate a slight increase in the undocumented population in the U.S. and note changes in migrant demographics, reports Dan Gooding of Newsweek. New administrative policies have allowed more migrants to live and work here, "but without any clear route to becoming a permanent resident," Gooding reports.
We’d note that Congress can remedy both the need for administrative policies and the uncertainty for employers and workers.
Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of The Forum Daily. I’m Dan Gordon, the Forum’s strategic communications VP, and the great Forum Daily team also includes Jillian Clark, Samantha Siedow, Ally Villarreal and Clara Villatoro. If you have a story to share from your own community, please send it to me at [email protected].
VANCE — Yesterday, Donald Trump chose Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) to join him on the ticket. Vance has taken a hard line on immigration, Adam Nagourney of The New York Times highlights. Speaking on Fox News in June, Vance said he believes the U.S. "should conduct ‘large-scale deportations,’" Rachel Treisman, Ben Giles and Lexie Schapitl of NPR report as they examine Vance’s track record.
DECREASE — According to new numbers, encounters of unauthorized migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border went down 29% in June, the Associated Press reports. "Recent border security measures have made a meaningful impact on our ability to impose consequences for those crossing unlawfully," said Customs and Border Protection Acting Commissioner Troy Miller. Yesterday, we shared some of the consequences on the ground, and our explainer of the Biden administration’s latest asylum actions is worth another look.
ROADBLOCKS — Despite almost two decades of experience practicing psychiatry and the U.S. medical industry’s desperate need for more workers, Brazilian psychiatrist Mark Costa was faced with hurdle after hurdle when trying to enter the workforce after immigrating to the U.S., reports Katy Golvala of the Hartford Courant. Costa is one of many foreign-born doctors who are willing and ready to work but face difficulties in visa and licensing processes.
VULNERABILITY — Organized crime groups are using the long waits for CBP One appointments against vulnerable migrants, reports Alicia Fàbregas of El País. She highlights a group of migrants who were kidnapped and extorted under the fear of losing their appointments. Advocates emphasize the need for improvements to the CBP One app and a shift in asylum measures to better protect migrants.
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