Xi Jinping and China: Running Out of Time, Ready to Strike
by Gordon G. Chang • July 16, 2024 at 5:00 am
Why is Chinese President Xi Jinping moving so fast at this time to exert control over peripheral waters? Prominent China analyst Willy Lam wrote last October that China's leader perhaps sees a closing window of opportunity and therefore is in a hurry to annex territory.
Whether he goes to war or not, he is getting ready to do so. Both the Financial Times and CNN have reported that businesses have been establishing military units inside their organizations. "Chinese Companies Are Raising Militias Like It's the 1970s," the cable network reported.
Xi is engaged in the fastest military buildup since the Second World War. In addition, he is purging military officers opposed to war, trying to sanction-proof his regime, stockpiling grain and other commodities, surveying the U.S. for nuclear weapons strikes, and mobilizing civilians for war.
His economic policies emphasize war preparation, and he looks determined to take China into battle, regardless of prospects. "Even if we cannot win, we must fight," Xi is reported to have said to military officers in 2017, in connection with Taiwan.
I believe that Xi wants war — or at least a ramping up of tensions — to prevent senior Chinese leaders from moving against him. He is not looking to rally the Chinese people with provocative actions or even an attack; he wants to defang political opponents in the Communist Party.
Xi may not yet have made the decision to go to war, but he has clearly made the decision to risk war. That means he can strike when we least expect it.
In recent weeks, China has surged its naval fleet into both surrounding and far away waters.
Most significantly, the People's Liberation Army Navy sent two strike groups into the South China Sea. The larger, centered on the Shandong aircraft carrier, operated off the main Philippine island of Luzon before transiting into the Western Pacific for blue water flight operations. The other is an Expeditionary Strike Group led by a Type 075 Yushen-class amphibious assault ship, one of China's largest and most advanced. Four of China's Type 055 Renhai-class cruisers, described as "the most lethal surface combatant in the world," escorted the two strike groups.
China's newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, has been on its third set of sea trials.
China and Russia began "Exercise Joint Sea-2024" at the Zhanjiang port in southern Guangdong province, the headquarters of the Chinese navy's South Sea Fleet.
