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Dear John,

Today, we released a new SurveyUSA/FairVote ranked choice poll of 2,050 likely voters in six swing states. The poll finds that Kamala Harris is the strong favorite among Democrats and independents to replace President Biden should he withdraw from the race.

Ranked choice polling provides more information on voter preferences, including voters’ backup choices, head-to-head matchups of all candidates, and which candidates are strong “consensus” picks (ranked in voters’ top 3 or top 5 choices). Here are some of the key findings:

Harris is a consensus choice

Vice President Kamala Harris has both deep and broad support among voters – she is the first choice of 37% of likely Democratic and independent voters, and continues to consolidate support in the RCV tabulation. Harris ultimately wins with 68% and her strongest opponent, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, receives 32%. 

SurveyUSA July 2024 dem nominee RCV (2).png

Harris is also a strong consensus candidate, ranked in the top three choices by 56% of Democratic and independent voters. Other candidates commonly ranked in voters’ top three choices include Whitmer (31%) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (29%).

Voters overwhelmingly support ranked choice voting

Ranked choice voting is already used for presidential elections in Maine and Alaska, and the poll suggests RCV has broad support beyond those states, too.

54% of all respondents said they would support implementing ranked choice voting where they live. Only 22% would oppose it, with 22% not sure. Younger voters, voters of color, and liberal voters reported the highest level of support for ranked choice voting.

SurveyUSA 07-24 support for RCV.png

Head-to-head matchups

The poll also tests the performance of all potential Democratic nominees against former President Trump. Biden performs the strongest against Donald Trump of all potential nominees (44%-44%). Harris performs the best of all non-Biden options (Trump 46%-Harris 42%). 

FairVote remains a nonpartisan organization with no opinion on which candidates should run for president, but we hope these findings will contribute to a healthy discussion about RCV and the presidential race – and that more states will decide to implement RCV as Maine and Alaska have!

Read the full poll analysis on our website!

Sincerely,
Deb Otis
Director of Research and Policy

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