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History often works in mysterious ways. But for an inch in one direction in the path of a bullet, the 2024 presidential election would have taken a dramatic and radical turn. Indeed, even though the assassination attempt against Donald Trump failed, the trajectory of the race will almost certainly be altered. Pictures of a bloody but defiant Trump raising his fist in the moments after the gunshots ended are bound to help him widen an already expanding lead over President Biden, possibly for good.
We may look back at Trump’s Saturday rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, as the moment when the election was decided. But beyond its possible political impact, the shooting in Butler is an opportunity for both sides to inject some much-needed restraint into their campaign rhetoric and, in doing so, attempt to set a new tone going forward, even beyond Election Day.
As I write this, the motives of the shooter remain unclear. But even if Thomas Matthew Crooks turns out to be a garden-variety crank with a big chip on his shoulder and no political ax to grind, many if not most Americans will rightly see his actions within the context of the extreme, WWE-style rhetorical brew that the American political scene has been marinating in for roughly the past decade. It is beyond stating the obvious to say that some on both sides of the political aisle will literally say or do anything to gain an advantage.
President Biden, the Democrats and their allies in the media have devoted the past few years to calling Trump and his supporters [ [link removed] ] everything from extreme threats to democracy to semi-fascists. Trump, of course, elevated the politics of personal destruction to an art form during the 2016 campaign and hasn’t let up, recently calling Biden [ [link removed] ] “an old broken-down pile of crap” and Vice President Kamala Harris “pathetic.” My only surprise is that it’s taken this long for someone to take a shot at one of these candidates.
In the hours following Saturday’s incident, both sides acted appropriately. Biden strongly condemned the shooting [ [link removed] ], calling it “sick” and saying that “there’s no place for this kind of violence in America.” He also called Trump and said that he was praying for him and his family. Good. For his part, Trump released a statement [ [link removed] ] thanking the Secret Service and law enforcement officials for saving his life and expressing condolences for an innocent bystander at the rally who had been killed and concern for another attendee who been injured. Also good.
Call me cynical, but I’m under no illusions that this episode will change either campaign’s willingness to say anything to win. And, needless to say, fellow travelers and cranks on each side will quickly blame the other side entirely for the assassination attempt. But I do hold out a small (frankly, tiny) hope that Saturday’s shooting will change the incentive for the campaigns to continue behaving irresponsibly.
All of us (including your humble correspondent) frequently shake our heads and tut-tut the sad state of politics in America today. But as with the state of the culture, our politics is a mirror of our society. To put it another way: We have seen the enemy, and it is us.
The only way the campaigns will use Saturday’s shooting as a teachable moment and dial back the hostile and overblown language is if they think they will pay a political price for continuing with business as usual. If one of the major candidates were to be booed by his supporters for saying something hateful and stupid, that might actually change the dynamic of the campaign going forward. It may not even need to come to that. If polling in the coming days shows a very strong desire among voters of all stripes for a more civil, dignified race, that might be enough (at least for a time) to convince the Svengalis in both campaigns to convince their bosses to change tack.
Incentivizing better behavior doesn’t have to mean that hearts and minds in Bidenworld or Trumpworld will change overnight. But, who knows? As C.S. Lewis once pointed out, if you want to be a better person, start acting like one, and one day you may actually discover that your good behavior has become who you are rather than who you want to be.
In the meantime, it goes without saying that even taking a short break from the in-and-out tide of ridiculous and hateful rhetorical detritus would do all of us some good. And who knows: Given how much both candidates like to talk, maybe they’ll even feel compelled to start speaking more about the issues. With the pile of serious domestic and international challenges currently facing the country, that wouldn’t be a bad thing.
Maybe it’s just hazy nostalgia on my part or coincidence, but I think the country was better off (and better run) when there was more comity among our political leadership, when leaders like Republican President Ronald Reagan and Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill would share a drink and a few laughs and then hammer out compromises that gave both sides something they wanted.
This was true even in the 1990s: I’m old enough to remember (as a young reporter on Capitol Hill) watching congressional leaders from different parties, such as Sens. Bob Dole and George Mitchell, square off in tough legislative battles and then call each other “friend,” and seemingly mean it. These friendships, even if they were partly for form’s sake, meant that continued conversations and future compromises were possible, even after difficult political fights.
No one expects President Biden and former President Trump to be sharing a few drinks and laughs anytime soon. (For starters, Trump doesn’t drink, and neither man seems in a jolly mood these days.) But hopefully Saturday’s tragedy won’t go to waste. Hopefully, the American people will demand at least a temporary halt to dangerous rhetoric. If Saturday’s events prompt both candidates to continue behaving at even the most basic level of civility, that will be a good start.
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