Daily News Brief

July 12, 2024

Top of the Agenda

The U.S. military will wind down operations at a floating pier it had installed this spring to deliver aid to the Gaza Strip, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said yesterday. Defense Department officials said more than eight thousand tons of aid had been delivered through the pier, but technical and weather-related issues prohibited it from being reattached this week. Israel has given relief organizations more access to Gaza in recent weeks via ground crossings, the New York Times reported, though the aid groups report that the humanitarian situation currently faced by hundreds of thousands of people is still desperate. 

Meanwhile, U.S. negotiators are in the Middle East this week for renewed cease-fire talks. U.S. President Joe Biden said in a press conference yesterday that “the trend is positive” in those negotiations. Today, envoys are in Cairo discussing a three-phase deal on hostage release and a cease-fire. Part of the negotiations cover the postwar fate of Gaza; yesterday Biden said that “the day after” in Gaza should be “no occupation by Israel.” (BBC, NYT, White House)

Analysis

“Getting the aid [from the Gaza pier] ashore has only been part of the challenge. Delivering it, safely, to the people who need it is extremely hazardous, the BBC’s Paul Adams writes. “The breakdown of law and order throughout the Gaza Strip as a result of Israel’s relentless targeting of anyone associated with Hamas, including police officers, means that looting—whether organized or opportunistic—is still rife.”

“So long as the fighting [in Gaza] continues,” the Istituto Affari Internazionali’s Maria Fantappe and Johns Hopkins University’s Vali Nasr write for Foreign Affairs, “Israel’s standoff with [Iran-backed Lebanese militants] Hezbollah will intensify. Shelling between the two has displaced tens of thousands of Israelis since the onset of the war in Gaza, and so Israel now views securing its northern border as part and parcel of its campaign to destroy Hamas.” 

Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict.

Europe

Long-range U.S. cruise missiles will periodically be stationed in Germany beginning in 2026, the countries said in a joint statement yesterday. Such missiles would have been prohibited by a 1988 treaty between the United States and the former Soviet Union that fell apart five years ago, making this the first deployment of its kind since the Cold War. Moscow has resolved to react with a “military response,” Russia’s deputy foreign minister said. (BBC)

This CFR timeline traces U.S.- Russia nuclear arms control.

U.S./Germany/Russia: U.S. intelligence services discovered and blocked a plot to kill German arms manufacturer CEO Armin Papperger earlier this year, unnamed Western officials told CNN. Papperger said he believed the outline of events in the CNN report, while a spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin called the report “fake.” When asked about the report, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said there is a pattern of hostile Russian actions against NATO allies. The chair of the defense committee in Germany’s legislature told the German news outlet Bild that the reports show “Russia is also bringing its war and terror to Europe.” Papperger’s firm has been producing weapons for Ukraine. (CNN, FT, DW, DPA, AFP)  

Pacific Rim

The protocols follow bilateral consultations on how to integrate U.S. nuclear weapons and South Korean conventional weapons to respond to various crisis scenarios, namely North Korea’s evolving nuclear threats. The details of the guidance were not made public. On the sidelines of the NATO summit yesterday, both countries’ leaders called the move “tremendous progress.” (AP)

For Foreign Affairs, CFR expert Sue Mi Terry discusses the coming North Korean crisis and how Washington can prevent it.

Australia/Russia: Australia arrested two Russian-born citizens, an army private and her husband, and charged them with espionage. Australian federal authorities said “no significant compromise has been identified” and warned against foreign agents working to undermine the country. (Nikkei)

South and Central Asia

Bangladesh’s government recently reinstated a system by which hundreds of thousands of government jobs are reserved for certain categories of people, such as grandchildren of people who fought in the 1971 war of independence. Dozens were injured at youth-led protests against the rule in the capital and across the country yesterday. (NYT, AFP, Dhaka Tribune) 

Myanmar/Thailand: Representatives of Thai banks testified at a parliamentary hearing over a UN report that said they were facilitating weapons purchases for Myanmar’s junta. Many said they lacked the ability to investigate such transactions. (Reuters)

Middle East and North Africa

These are the second such joint military exercises between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and China and are due to continue until late July, Chinese media reported yesterday. The UAE has been expanding military-to-military ties with China after the Emirati president visited Beijing in May. (Al-Monitor)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Only the foreign minister remained in the aftermath of yesterday’s major shake-up. President William Ruto said the decision followed a review of his outgoing cabinet’s performance and pledged to consult across Kenyan society to name new leaders. At least thirty-nine people were killed in clashes with police during antigovernment protests last month. (Daily Nation, Reuters)

Sudan: The country’s army leader declined to participate in UN-hosted humanitarian talks in Geneva that were due to begin yesterday, saying it would not meet until the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces withdrew from occupied towns. A UN spokesperson reiterated the invitation for both parties to meet today. (Sudan Tribune) 

On this episode of The President’s Inbox podcast, CFR expert Michelle Gavin details the scale of the crisis in Sudan’s civil war.

Americas

Most NATO countries have already met the alliance’s gross domestic product (GDP) spending target. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the close of the summit in Washington this week that Canada will do so by 2032. (CBC)

This Expert Brief by Caroline Kapp and CFR Fellow Liana Fix questions whether NATO’s 2 percent goal will be enough. 

U.S./Chile: Electric vehicle batteries made with lithium mined in Chile will be eligible for U.S. tax breaks under the Inflation Reduction Act, Chile’s economy minister said yesterday. The U.S. flagship climate legislation includes benefits for products sourced from countries with which Washington has a free trade agreement, such as Chile. (Reuters)

U.S. Campaign 2024

U.S. President Joe Biden said in a press conference yesterday that the strengthening of NATO since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made the United States stronger, calling support for the alliance “a national security issue.” Biden added that support for such alliances is “an American consensus from [former President Harry] Truman to [former President Ronald] Reagan to me.” He said that Washington continues to evaluate the permissions it gives for Ukraine to strike inside Russia. (White House)   

Former U.S. President Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán met in Florida and each said in separate social media posts yesterday that they discussed “peace,” but did not give further details. Orbán has endorsed Trump’s candidacy in the U.S. presidential election and said he hopes Trump will be able to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. Orbán also visited both Russia and China in recent days, prompting European leaders to emphasize they did not endorse those visits. (AP) 

CFR’s election candidate tracker compares Biden and Trump on defense and NATO. 

Friday Editor’s Pick

The Associated Press delves into how Russia’s war casts a pall on Ukraine’s Olympic aspirations, telling the story of one young gymnast determined to offer some hope.

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