WASHINGTON, DC — The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) today released its latest estimates of the size of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States, pegging the number at 11.3 million in mid-2022. That figure is up from 11.2 million in 2021 and 11.0 million in 2019.

While in certain corners of the internet, it is emphatically stated that the U.S. unauthorized immigrant population has swelled by tens of millions over the past few years given the pace of encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border, a new MPI commentary explains why every encounter does not equal an increase of one person in the unauthorized population.

“Importantly, the unauthorized population is shaped not just by entries but also by exits,” Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, Julia Gelatt and Jennifer Van Hook write. “People are deported or leave the country voluntarily, they die, or at times, they are able to get a green card.”

The MPI estimates, developed in concert with Van Hook, a demographer at The Pennsylvania State University’s Population Research Institute, derive from a residual method that subtracts estimates of the legally resident foreign born from the total immigrant population recorded in the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). The most recent ACS is for 2022.

While the public might expect a greater jump in the size of the unauthorized immigrant population, it is important to note that these 2022 data do not capture the record number of border encounters witnessed in 2023 and this year.

The estimates reflect the growing diversification of the U.S. unauthorized population, due both to the decline in the size of the Mexican unauthorized population that began right before the 2008-2009 Great Recession and the widening array of nationalities arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border over the past several years from within and beyond this hemisphere.

The increase in unauthorized immigrants between 2021 and 2022 was driven by migration from countries such as Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua, and Haiti, as well as countries in Europe and Africa. These increases were partially offset by emigration of Mexican unauthorized immigrants. The Mexican unauthorized population, which stood at 5.1 million in mid-2022, has fallen 34 percent from its 7.7 million peak in 2007.

Migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for 80 percent of all unauthorized immigrants in 2022.

Future data will reveal how the size and origins of the unauthorized immigrant population have shifted during the very dynamic period of U.S.-Mexico border arrivals in 2023 and 2024.

For a complete look at the new estimates, visit: www.migrationpolicy.org/news/us-unauthorized-population-diversifying.

MPI will be updating its detailed profiles of unauthorized immigrant populations at U.S., state and top county levels.