ISIS carried out at least 29 confirmed attacks in June in the Homs, Hama,
Raqqa, Deir Ez Zor, and Aleppo governorates. These attacks killed at least 49
pro-Assad regime soldiers and two civilian and wounded at least 23 more
soldiers and civilians. There were also 12 high quality* attacks carried out
during the month. The level of violence increased in June by every metric
compared to May. However, most of these attacks occurred in the first half of
the month amid a series of regime military operations in eastern Homs. As in
May, there were relatively few attacks in Deir Ez Zor and Hama, as Homs
remained the center of ISIS activity in the Badia.





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ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In June 2024


Read ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency In June 2024 by clicking here
<[link removed]>
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ISIS Redux The Central Syria Insurgency In June 2024

By Gregory Waters



Following is the June 2024 installment of “ISIS Redux: The Central Syria
Insurgency,” a monthly chronicle of attacks by the terrorist group ISIS in
central Syria. All previous 2024 monthly installments can be found here
<[link removed]>, as well as a
review of developments throughout 2023
<[link removed]>,
2022
<[link removed]>
, and 2021
<[link removed]>.
A full background and analysis of ISIS’s resurgence in Syria, including the
methodology used to collect this data, can also beexplored here
<[link removed]>, here
<[link removed]>
,and here
<[link removed]>
.



ISIS carried out at least 29 confirmed attacks in June in the Homs, Hama,
Raqqa, Deir Ez Zor, and Aleppo governorates. These attacks killed at least 49
pro-Assad regime soldiers and two civilian and wounded at least 23 more
soldiers and civilians. There were also 12 high quality* attacks carried out
during the month. The level of violence increased in June by every metric
compared to May. However, most of these attacks occurred in the first half of
the month amid a series of regime military operations in eastern Homs. As in
May, there were relatively few attacks in Deir Ez Zor and Hama, as Homs
remained the center of ISIS activity in the Badia.



Civilians once again came under attack in June from ISIS. Several brutal
attacks were carried out against local tribesmen in the Jubb Jarah region of
eastern Homs that resulted in locals hunting down and killing two ISIS members.
Still, the vast majority of ISIS activity remained focused on security forces.
More “aggressive” attacks – using small and medium arms to ambush patrols and
fixed positions were more frequent than those relying on mine fields. June also
witnessed the most severe leadership losses for the regime in years, with three
senior officers killed in eastern Homs and one local commander wounded in Deir
Ez Zor. Nevertheless, regime security forces appear to have successfully
established new defensive positions around several critical areas in Homs,
particularly the Doubayat and Kawm axes, which have for now reduced ISIS
activity along these fronts.



*Indicates attacks in Damascus City claimed by ISIS. Additional IED attacks
occurred in Homs City in June 2023 and Damascus in March 2024 and May 2024 that
went unclaimed but were suspected to be conducted by ISIS.



Confirmed ISIS attacks increased in Homs (17) and Raqqa (5), remained steady
in Deir Ez Zor (4) and dropped in Hama (2). There was also one recorded attack
in southern Aleppo in June, the first such attack since March.



Deir Ez Zor and Raqqa



ISIS expanded its low-level insurgency within the urban belt of Deir Ez Zor in
January, when it conducted three assassinations of local security forces.
Sleeper cells continued this trend in February, carrying out two assassinations
of local pro-regime fighters inside Mayadin city, and again in March, when
unidentified gunmen conducted three attacks inside Mayadin and one attack on
the edge of Shamitiyah. This pattern continued into April, with one attack
inside Mayadin and two attacks within and adjacent to towns in west Deir Ez
Zor. In May, regime security forces captured a small four-man ISIS cell inside
Mayadin. According to local journalist Zain al-Abidin, three of the detained
men were serving in the pro-regime National Defense Forces (NDF) and their
leader had entered Mayadin from northeast Syria during the regime’s 2022
reconciliation initiative – a security risk this author had highlighted at the
time. There were no recorded attacks in Mayadin in June, however, there was an
IED attack inside Deir Ez Zor city and a small arms attack inside Shamitiyah.



On June 8, two members of the Russian and Syrian Republican Guard-backed
tribal militia “Usoud Sharqiyeh Shaitat” were killed by an improvised explosive
device (IED) while driving inside Deir Ez Zor city. The next day, gunmen
stormed a 4th Division security point adjacent to Shamitiyah’s Municipality
Building, killing three soldiers and wounding a fourth. No one has claimed
responsibility for this attack. Local journalist Zain al-Abidinbelieves
<[link removed]> the attack may be linked
to a growing feud between the 4th Division and members of the Busraya tribe, as
the two sides compete over control of smuggling routes in the area.



On June 14, a small group of Iranian-backed tribal fighters were ambushed
while driving on a remote road from the Mu’ayzilah hamlet in central southwest
Deir Ez Zor to the city of Salihiyah. Three militia fighters were killed and
five wounded, including the commander of the Salihiyah Sector Khalaf
al-Zarzour. On June 18, a 1st Lieutenant serving as an engineer in the army was
killed in an attack on the Kharata Oil Field outside Deir Ez Zor. The next day,
Russian state media claimed to have conducted a drone strike on ISIS militants
attempting to attack the field.



In Raqqa, ISIS activity dropped back down to more typical levels in May
following two months of extreme activity. Since then, the group has maintained
a low-level but robust insurgency focused in the desert between Resafa and
Jabal Bishri. On June 9, a soldier from the 25th Division was killed by a mine
in the desert east of Resafa. On June 12, two more soldiers were reported
killed somewhere in the same region. On June 26, ISIS militants launched a rare
anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) attack on a regime vehicle on the western side
of Jabal Bishri, wounding two soldiers. This is the third such attack in the
Badia this year. On June 29, ISIS claimed responsibility for an assassination
of a 17th Division soldier in his hometown of Ghanem Ali. ISIS conducted a
similar assassination in nearby Maadan on March 2 of this year.



Meanwhile, regime security forces led by Major General Suhail Hassan initiated
new operations in the southern Raqqa desert in the second half of June.According
<[link removed]> to Zain al-Abidin’s
sources in the area, these patrols found and clashed with an ISIS cell on June
26 west of Jabal Bishri, killing two ISIS fighters and uncovering a large cave
used as a base of operations.




Map of locatable ISIS attacks (highlighted) in Dier Ez Zor (top) and Raqqa
(bottom) in June 2024 alongside all other attacks in 2024.



Homs



ISIS activity in eastern Homs decreased in December, but remained focused
around the Doubayat Oil Field, which the group had temporarily captured in
November. January likewise saw most ISIS activity concentrated in this area,
though the group also expanded operations west into the desert just south of
Palmyra and Arak. In February, ISIS largely abandoned the southern Palmyra
front, likely because of pro-regime ground and air operations, and shifted its
focus to the Taybeh sector north of Sukhnah and the Jubb Jarah mountains north
of Palmyra. This focus continued into March, with activity remaining
concentrated in the Sukhnah-Taybeh-Kawm axis in both April and May. However,
security forces continued to largely stand their ground and June saw ISIS once
again shift its attacks to the Jubb Jarah and southern Wadi Doubayat-Palmyra
region, seemingly abandoning the Taybeh-Kawm front, at least temporarily.



On June 4, ISIS militants attacked a barracks in the Abbasiyah area south of
Palmyra, killing two soldiers and wounding one. On June 5, local Facebook pages
reported at least two soldiers who went missing from their post in the Jabal
Amour area north of Palmyra. The next day, ISIS militants attacked a group of
shepherds and their guards near Abu Aylah in the Jubb Jarah region, killing
four guards, two shepherds and stealing 1,000 or more sheep. The next day,
locals from the Bani Khalid tribe – whose shepherds and truffle hunters have
regularly been attacked by ISIS – found and killed two of the ISIS fighters
responsible for the attack. The militants were discovered near the village of
Jabab Hamad. On June 7, three Liwa al-Quds fighters were killed in an ISIS
ambush in the Jabal Amour region.



On June 8, ISIS conducted another attack between Abu Aylah and Jabab Hamad,
this time killing three 11th Division soldiers at their position. A fourth
soldier was reported killed near the T4 Airbase, south of Jub Jarah, and a
fifth soldier was reported killed in the southeastern Homs countryside that
same day. On June 11, a shepherd was killed by a mine near Qaryatayn. It is not
clear who placed the mine, however, it is worth noting the event since several
years ago, ISIS made inroads into this region. That same day, two soldiers were
reported killed in an unspecified part of eastern Homs, likely near Wadi
Doubayat during the 25th Division’s new operation there.



On June 12, a 25th Division convoy combing the southern side of the field fell
into an ISIS minefield and small arms ambush. More than a dozen soldiers were
reportedly trapped, their ultimate fate unclear. However, martyrdom
announcements were released for a brigadier general and a colonel who were
killed when their vehicle hit one of the mines, as well as for at least two
other soldiers killed in the battle. That same day, three other soldiers were
reported killed and two wounded in another ISIS attack near Jabab Hamad.



On June 13, a soldier was reported killed in an unspecified part of eastern
Homs, again likely to be Wadi Doubayat. On June 15, ISIS members launched a
retaliatory attack against Bani Khalid tribesmen in the Jubb Jarah region,
overrunning a temporary camp used by shepherds. Three men were injured,
hundreds of sheep were killed, and two trucks and tents burned down. On June
18, a lieutenant colonel was killed in the Talilah Reserve area south of
Palmyra, the third high ranking officer killed in June. On June 24, a captain
was reported killed near Palmyra. On June 30, four more soldiers were killed
when their position in Jubb Jarah came under attack from ISIS militants.



Map of locatable ISIS attacks in Homs (highlighted) in June 2024 alongside all
other attacks in 2024. One attack that occurred somewhere in “east Homs” is not
mapped.



Hama



Significant ISIS activity returned to east Hama in January, when the group
conducted five attacks in the province, three of which were high quality.
Likewise, ISIS conducted three high quality attacks in eastern Hama in
February. This was the first time eastern Hama had back-to-back months of three
or more high quality attacks since spring of 2021. In March, there were five
high quality and 12 total attacks, almost all against security forces. However,
activity fell significantly in April and May, and even further in June, which
had only two documented attacks.



On June 10, two soldiers were killed and four were wounded when their vehicle
hit a mine around 30km east of Ithriyah on the road to Raqqa. Similarly, on
June 20, one soldier was killed and four were wounded by a mine east of
Ithriyah.



Map of locatable ISIS attacks in Hama (highlighted) in June 2024 alongside all
other attacks in 2024.



Looking Ahead



The 4th Division’s “Ghaith Forces” arrived
<[link removed]> in Deir Ez Zor in
early March,tasked
<[link removed]>
with securing the eastern half of the Palmyra-Deir Ez Zor road from increasing
ISIS attacks. Since late April, ISIS attacks in Deir Ez Zor have decreased
significantly – either a direct result of the new operations or because of
resource demands elsewhere. However, this was the first deployment of serious
front-line units to central Syria as part of the military’s counter-insurgency
campaign. Unlike other 4th Division units sent to the Badia since early 2021,
the Ghaith Forces have a long history as key storming units in many of the
sieges in and around Damascus and Dara’a. Their commander, Brigadier General
Ghaith Dalah, was evenappointed
<[link removed]> deputy commander of
the entire 4th Division in late June.



Perhaps hoping to mimic this success, the regime and the Russian command then
sent the 25th Division to eastern Homs in early June, marking the second
front-line unit dedicated to the anti-ISIS fight. The 25th Division – formerly
the Tiger Forces – have been among the most important military units operating
in northwest Syria. In its original iteration, the Tiger Forces were crucial
for mobilizing loyalist communities across northern Hama to form a dual
auxiliary-storming type force that could both reliably hold down front-line
towns and conduct serious storming operations across the country. Much of their
fighting prowess stemmed from the close relationship the unit had with both the
Russian Air Force and Army officers (who regularly provided logistical,
command, artillery, and air support to the Tigers) and their privileged
position within the regime’s security hierarchy, which gave them priority
access to air and armor assets. The Tigers, alongside the Russian-commanded
Syrian 5th Corps, were central components of the regime’s last major northwest
Syria campaign. That operation ended in February 2020 with a Russia-Turkey
ceasefire, after which the 25th Division maintained its presence around
northwest Syria and expanded recruitment and training.



The June Badia deployment marks the first true combat deployment for the 25th
Division since February 2020. Elements of the 25th Division have, for several
years, helped patrol and secure the Khanasir-Ithriya axis from ISIS attacks.
But the units deployed here are part of the new cohort, the army recruits that
have been brought into the division after its transformation. The east Homs
deployment is unique in that it involves many of the core, veteran Tiger Forces
units – the men that have led and would be expected to lead any future Idlib
offensive. The difference in scope of this new deployment from the Ithriya
operations can clearly be seen in the severity of the losses the division has
suffered this month. These new units – alongside regular Syrian Arab Army (SAA)
divisions and auxiliaries like Liwa al-Quds and the al-Assad Shield Forces,
conducted patrols across northeast and southeast Homs in June. According to
Zain al-Abidin: “regime forces penetrated 1 km south of Doubayat and combed the
perimeter of Tuwaynan, Wadi al-Abyad Dam, and parts of the Amour Mountains.
They added new defensive lines around the towns of Koum, Taybeh, and Kadir and
established a permanent military point near Bir Barbar north of Kadir. They
also established new points around the Arak field, which witnessed significant
activity by ISIS groups in its vicinity last May.”



All of this is to say that, for the first time since ISIS began its
insurgency, there is a clear broader impact on the regime’s military
capabilities. ISIS’s previously unseen levels of sustained operations this year
has already forced the Russian Air Force to operate at an equally unseen
sustained level across central Syria. Now Damascus has not only deployed core
4th Division units (the same men who had led May operations in southwestern
Syria) but also its primary northwestern Syria storming unit.



This does not mean that the Idlib frontline has been weakened in any serious
way – the regime still maintains a robust number of regular army units there
from Latakia to west Aleppo. Rather, it is a potential sign of the level of
disruption ISIS’s insurgency can impose on broader regime plans in the future.
Should the northwest ceasefire collapse or the Americans withdraw from
northeast Syria, the regime and Russia will undoubtedly initiate full-scale
operations in these regions – operations which would require assets now
committed to central Syria. Should ISIS continue to pose the current level of
threat in central Syria into the future, both Russia and the Syrian regime may
be forced to make concessions on one front.



It is thanks to these deployments and dedicated airpower that the regime’s
security forces have been able to make the inroads they have in the last two
weeks of June. These operations and the heavy ground and air presence across
eastern Homs have, so far, seemed to slow down ISIS’s operations. It remains to
be seen how long these units will remain in central Syria. The regime and
Russia’s approach this spring has begun to mirror that of January 2020, when
the regime flooded central Syria with soldiers to dampen ISIS activity. Back
then, however, the deployments gradually ended, as did Russia’s persistent air
activity, giving room for ISIS’s return. It remains to be seen whether the
regime or Russia is prepared to dedicate the current level of resources in
central Syria for the long run.



Map of locatable ISIS attacks (highlighted) in June 2024 alongside all other
attacks in 2024. Not shown is one attack reported in the Homs countryside and
an attack reported in the southern Aleppo countryside. To view an interactive
version of this map, please clickhere
<[link removed]>
.



*High quality attacks are defined as attacks behind frontlines, attacks that
result in seized positions, target regime officers, or involve coordinated
attacks on multiple positions, “flying checkpoints” (temporary roadblocks ISIS
fighters establish in order to stop and extort or ambush a few cars), ambushes
on military convoys, or attacks on checkpoints that kill at least three
soldiers or lead to POWs.



###







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