Dear John,

Apologies for the slightly belated Weekend Wire. After a long campaign we needed a few hours’ recuperation and while there is plenty to pick over from this historic week, I imagine you are also ready for a bit of a break, so here is your need-to-know.

Landslide

As soon as polls closed on Thursday evening, the result was never in question. The UK has a new government. Despite falling short of Tony Blair’s mammoth 1997 seat haul of 418, Starmer’s victory is nothing short of astounding considering some were predicting at least 10 years of Tory hegemony after the 2019 election.

In total Labour won 412 seats to the Tories’ dismal 121. The Lib Dems had an incredible night winning their highest ever seat tally of 72, as did the Greens who secured all of their target seats, quadrupling their representation in parliament. 

Mercifully, the double digit seat haul forecast by the exit poll for Reform UK Ltd did not materialise but the election of five Reform MPs, including Nigel Farage, was certainly a blot on an otherwise fantastic set of results. Plaid Cymru will be pleased after they secured 4 seats, doubling their number of MPs, but the SNP certainly won’t be, losing 80% of their parliamentary party and returning only 9 representatives to Westminster. 

Not all rosy

Despite the positive result, the inequality of the UK’s electoral system clearly on display with Labour winning 63% of the seats with only 34% of the vote and their landslide on paper belied a much closer race in many constituencies. 

Worryingly for Labour, an increase in support for populist parties saw their vote in some former strongholds contract sharply. In Birmingham Yardley, Jess Phillips came within 700 votes of losing the seat she’s held since 2015, while in Leicester, notable member of Starmer’s team Jonathan Ashworth was not reelected. The new PM will also be less than happy that things weren’t even close in Islington North where his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn sailed in as an independent MP with a majority of 7000+.

Grasping the nettle

After a quick chat in Buckingham Palace, Starmer was met by cheering supporters on the steps of Downing Street where he tempered promises of 'national renewal’ and  a ‘Government of service’ with a hefty dose of reality. Refusing even the thinnest sugar-coating, Starmer made no bones about the challenges ahead and the time it would take to meet them.

With emergencies on almost every front, the traditional honeymoon period usually afforded to a new PM is likely to be more of a daytrip. 

Shiny New Cabinet

As a first step, Keir Starmer completed the final appointments to his top team on Saturday. You don’t need us for the full list but worth highlighting are the key players when it comes to making improvements to the Brexit deal when it is reviewed in 2026. 

They include new Foreign Secretary David Lammy who spoke at our Trade Unlocked Conference last year and Hilary Benn, the former Chairman of Best for Britain’s UK Trade and Business Commission and co-author of our 114 recommendations. He will be on his way to George Best Airport as the new Secretary of State for Northern Ireland while Jonathan Reynolds becomes the new Business and Trade Secretary.

So what now for the Tories?

After 14 years of self-indulgent, self-interested and self-serving government, the answer for many will understandably be “who the hell cares”, but we should all be concerned about what happens to the Conservatives as it might not be long before they are in a position to seize power again. The spike in Reform UK support will inevitably tempt some within the Tory Party to conclude that Farage can be beaten by copying him, despite 8 years of evidence to the contrary, 

The Conservative leadership race will likely be a battle between (relative) (surviving) moderates and the kind of people whose first question will always be from GB News. 

For the moderates, former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat or former Health Secretary Victoria Atkins have been mentioned as potential successors after Jeremy Hunt, who miraculously survived an admirable Lib Dem assault, ruled himself out.  But as the decision will be made by the same membership who looked at Liz Truss with starry-eyed longing, the smart money is on Kemi Badenoch, who we should remind you, once promised the total $1trillion GDP of Florida as a Brexit bonus.

There is always a least worst option… I guess.

And what next for B4B?

You’ll be pleased to know that we aren’t going anywhere. Tactical voting was always just that - a tactic, a way of getting rid of the party doing active harm to the country and opening the door to potential improvements to the Brexit deal. It is not going to be easy, but with your help we can achieve great things again. Lord knows we need it!

Thanks again for all your support!

Niall McGourty
Director of Communications