Top Lines: US Economy And Trade Policy | 2020 Election And Political Analysis | Coronavirus Crisis | Impeachment | Protecting Our Elections And Disinformation | Immigration And The Border | Countering Illiberalism's Rise
Notes On 2020 - While polling remains bouncy right now, Trump’s bump is largely gone and things have reverted back to about where they were prior to the COVID crisis - Democrats with a 6-9 point structural advantage, similar to where things stood in 2018. Consider how similar these spreads/margins are:
Yes, we have a long way to go in this challenging year. But in the coming months, one can easily imagine Biden gaining 1-3 more points from consolidating the party behind him and winning the nomination, and Trump losing a few as the costs and pain of his mismanagement of COVID become more evident. That movement would put us closer to the 2018 vote numbers than we are today, and would put the White House and Senate in Democratic hands.
America Still Needs A COVID Plan - Given the structure of this race right now, it is very hard to understand what President Trump is choosing to do on COVID. The data is pretty clear that the American people believe he blew the early response to COVID, and do not support a fast re-opening. Stay at home efforts are very popular, as are the front line governors who’ve made the tough calls for their residents. So, from a political and public health standpoint, his attacks on both seem stupid and misguided. Trump’s only shot to win in 2020 at this point is to successfully manage this next phase of our response to COVID - the re-opening. He had a second chance, a chance to rise to the moment and lead us through this terrible scourge. But instead he seems to be retreating to a place of ideological extremism, Hannityville let’s call it, which will almost guarantee that we fail at this next critical phase of battling the virus.
Consider all that should be in place prior to the US re-opening - a federally run testing/tracing/isolation regime with wide deployment of far more tests and tests which yield results in minutes, not days; a stronger, better equipped, and better prepared US health care system; a national approach to social distancing/masking at work and in communities; some strategy for what parents and communities are supposed to do with young people this summer and perhaps this fall; the establishment of a clear national process for certifying immunity if immunity does in fact exist; and clarity on how international and domestic travel is going to work. At this point, the President doesn’t seem to be committed to do any of these things; in fact, his central strategy now seems to be focused on undermining the popular state and local stay at home regimes which have successfully slowed the spread of the virus.
Throughout this COVID crisis, the President has repeatedly expressed what can generously be described as magical thinking - the virus would just go away, it wouldn’t come here, we have millions of tests, etc. In what may be a looming tragedy for the country, this past week he seems to have once again chosen magical thinking - Liberate!/Open - over sound science and experience from what has worked in other nations. What remains remarkable about it all is that he is not just acting outside science and reason, he is acting outside of polling too, which is why 2020 is shaping up to be a very bad year both for the United States and for what’s left of the Republican Party.
NDN Webinars This Wednesday And Friday - NDN will be holding two Zoom-based webinars this week on Wednesday and Friday. First, we will be debuting a new initiative, “The Asymmetry Project,” this Wednesday at 3pm. This project builds on a body of our work over the past few years, and makes the argument that one of the defining political developments of our time is just how different the two American political parties are, and have become. You can learn more about this project here, and register for the webinar here. Second, we will be holding our weekly webinar featuring Simon & Rob discussing the latest COVID updates this Friday at 2pm. If you'd like to attend this briefing on Zoom, please register here.
Best,
Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team
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