DFP’s newsletter of our latest polls, memos, and memes. 

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Catch Team DFP at Netroots!

“Good Morning Baltimore ([link removed]) ” is what the DFP Team will be saying next week as we attend Netroots Nation 2024! From July 11-13, we’ll be tabling at the Baltimore Convention Center and moderating two panels, Building Community-First Climate Infrastructure (7/11 at 1pm ET) and Beyond the Horserace: Using Polling to Win Issue Campaigns (7/13 at 9am ET). Be sure to swing by our table to learn about our work, submit your very own polling ideas, and maybe even get some DFP swag!

There’s no Debate… that was a disaster

In our first post-debate poll, we find that 45% of voters choose Biden and 48% of voters choose Trump in a two-way matchup. Compared to Data for Progress’ last head-to-head survey ([link removed]) , Trump’s vote share against Biden has remained relatively stable across subgroups, while “don’t know” rates have grown larger. Harris performs the same as Biden in a head-to-head matchup against Trump.

When potential alternative Democratic candidates are polled ([link removed]) in head-to-head matchups against Trump, none of them beat him or receive a higher vote share than Biden. However, voters are largely unfamiliar with these other Democrats

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Read the full post-debate flash poll here ([link removed]) .

Here are some other highlights from DFP this week:

SCOTUS is really coming for our brat summer ([link removed]) …

It’s hard to get into the Fourth of July spirit when the Supreme Court just threw a firecracker into our democracy. Instead of putting on our Old Navy flag tee and celebrating our country, we’re going to be putting on our Old Navy flag tee and wondering why our country is controlled by corrupt lunatics who can’t remember the word “precedent.”

In case you haven’t heard, the Supreme Court decided ([link removed]) that presidents have presumed immunity for all “official acts.” Our polling ([link removed]) finds that a majority of voters oppose granting Trump immunity from criminal charges — including 64% of swing voters.

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The Supreme Court also decided a case with devastating consequences for our unhoused neighbors, ruling that cities can now criminalize sleeping outdoors. And no, we’re not talking about your Bonnaroo glamping tent. We’re talking about people suffering through poverty, addiction, disability, and a range of circumstances outside of their control.

Data for Progress polling ([link removed]) fielded in May finds that a bipartisan majority of voters believe homelessness is a direct result of “circumstances beyond an individual’s control,” and more than three-quarters of voters specifically point to the lack of affordable housing as a root cause. Furthermore, policy proposals to address homelessness, including taxing wealthy households and large businesses to fund shelter programs, creating a new bank to provide free or low-cost bank accounts, and investing more state and local resources, command broad support among the electorate.

Read the full immunity poll here ([link removed]) , and read our poll on homelessness here ([link removed]) .

It’s like a hundred ninety-nine degrees ([link removed]) …

When Glass Animals wrote about heat waves in the middle of June ([link removed]) , they probably weren’t picturing a summer as bad as this one. This summer has seen record-breaking temperatures ([link removed]) as a heat dome settled over most of the eastern U.S. — which has brought devastating consequences to our ability to get off the Internet and touch grass.

Although extreme heat is the leading cause ([link removed]) of weather-related deaths, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) does not respond ([link removed].) to extreme heat. Eighty percent of voters support ([link removed]) adding extreme heat and wildfire smoke to the list of disasters to which FEMA responds.

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“If there’s one person I can trust to protect me in a heat wave, it’s my landlord,” said absolutely no one ever. In fact, landlords aren’t obligated to provide renters with air conditioning, even though they’re required to provide home heating in the winter.

Seventy-nine percent of voters say they would support a policy requiring landlords to provide renters with air conditioning or cooling during extreme heat events. The other 21% are probably just Europeans.

Read the full poll here ([link removed]) .

DFP In The News

New York Times: What Post-Debate Polls Reveal About Replacing Biden ([link removed])

New York Times: There’s No Reason to Resign Ourselves to Biden ([link removed])

CBS News: Michigan Democratic Party responds to calls for Gov. Whitmer to run in 2024 presidential race ([link removed])

Politico: Biden campaign goes on digital blitz after shaky debate ([link removed])

Vox: 5 terrible reasons for Biden to stay in the race ([link removed])

New York Magazine: What the Polls Are Saying After the Trump-Biden Debate ([link removed])

The Nation: Democrats Are Running Interference for Biden. Voters Aren’t Convinced. ([link removed])

Rolling Stone: No One Is Buying the Biden Campaign’s Spin ([link removed])

USA Today: Can Joe Biden survive his poor debate? Even his friends aren't sure. ([link removed])

Business Insider: The top arguments for Biden dropping out or staying in the presidential race ([link removed])

The Guardian:Most voters want Biden to step down, but don’t agree on suitable alternative – poll ([link removed])

BBC: Biden assures donors he can still win election ([link removed])

Rolling Stone: In Memos to Quell Doubters, the Biden Campaign Touts Alarming Poll Results ([link removed])

NY Post: Biden campaign rips ‘bedwetting brigade’ in fundraising blast, touts poll pegging him stronger than other Dems ([link removed])

The Hill: Biden campaign says debate ‘did not change the horse race’ ([link removed]'did%20not%20change%20the%20horse%20race'&text=%E2%80%9CFlash%20polls%20from%20CNN%2C%20538,Dillon%20said%20in%20the%20memo.)
Newsweek: Top Democrats Weigh Biden Future, Raskin Says, As Family Reportedly Digs In ([link removed]'re%20having%20a%20serious,he's%20the%20candidate%20or%20someone)


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